Here you can read our periodical betting previews!
Betting weekend previews september 29/30
Weekend Offers from betdirect
It is the 11th Anniversary of the day Dettori left bookies in tears with his Magnificent 7 tomorrow. On 28th September 1996 he rode 7 out of 7 winners at Ascot forcing bookmakers to pay out an estimated £30million. This Saturday, betdirect are helping you increase your commission with their own Magnificent 7, offering your referrals the chance to win 7 x £25 free bets?
Magnificent 7 ? 7 x £25 Free Bets
Place a win single bet of £25 or more online on any of the Magnificent 7 races at Betdirect this Saturday and if your bet is a winner, they betdirect will give you a £25 free bet to use on any race at Ascot on Sunday*
Ascot 3.40, 4.55
Haydock 3.00, 3.35
Chester 4.00, 4.35, 5.40
Best Odds Guaranteed
Betdirect are offering best odds guaranteed on all UK races this Saturday. If you take an early price and the SP is greater, they will settle your bet at the bigger price.
Top Price Tryscorers
Throughout the Rugby Union World Cup, Betdirect are offering best odds on all first tryscorers. You will not find a better price with any other major bookmaker.
This weekend's matches ...
England v Tonga (8pm)
New Zealand v Romania (12pm)
Australia v Canada (2pm)
Wales v Fiji (4pm)
Scotland v Italy (8pm)
France v Georgia (2pm)
Ireland v Argentina (4pm)
South Africa v USA (7pm)
Big 4 Accumulator
Betdirect are going 5/1 for Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and Man Utd all to win their matches this weekend.
The betting weekend at WBX
It's another huge weekend of sport and once again WBX leads the way with a fantastic range of 0% commission offers to supplement the action.
Ascot hosts their big autumn meeting and although top billing is undoubtedly the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Saturday, where WBX Members can take advantage of our BIG race 0% commission offer, there are plenty of high class supporting races.
The feature on Friday is the Harvest Stakes while there is yet more Group class action on Sunday in the shape of the Diadem. Both contests feature as the BIG race on their respective days and once again that means 0% commission for all WBX Members.
The Berkshire track will attract the attention of the equine world over the weekend but there is a good deal going on elsewhere, not least in the Barclays Premier League.
Pick of the games is the early kick-off which sees Manchester City host Newcastle and as with WBX's BIG race, the BIG soccer match of the day also carries the incentive of 0% commission for all Members. All markets from the clash at Eastlands will be settled at 0% commission as will the only game from the top flight on Sunday, Middlesbrough's trip to Everton.
World Cup Rugby, crucial Formula One action and competitive team Golf are just some of the other highlights over the coming days so be sure to check WBX to see the fantastic value on offer for yourself.
Labels: ascot-betting, rugby-world-cup-betting
champions league group stage betting, formula one betting
The Pinnacle Post from PinnacleSports.com
Soccer Betting - Champions League Gets Serious
The Champions League qualifying rounds are now complete and the competition has boiled down to the top 32 soccer clubs in Europe, all vying for a place in the final in Moscow next May. The group stages kick-off next week, with eye-catching games between Barcelona & Lyon, and Arsenal & Sevilla. PinnacleSports.com will be offering the usual low margin Asian Handicaps giving bettors up to 60% better odds.
Formula One Betting - Here Come the Belgians
With unpredictable weather, awesome chicanes and breathtaking scenery, it is no surprise that the Belgian Grand Prix is the favourite of drivers and fans alike. The recent EUR 19M Euro face-lift will provide new challenges to seasoned pros and those Spa-Francorchamps virgins, such as Lewis Hamilton. With the Championship closer than ever, bettors have a unique opportunity to find value. Visit PinnacleSports.com for the latest low margin odds.
Golf Betting - High Class Field Heads to Germany
An elite 78 man field, including some of the best players in the world, will be teeing off on the outskirts of Cologne on Thursday, for the EUR 2M Mercedes Benz Championship. The European Tour event features US Open winner, Angel Cabrera, and five-times winner and tournament host, Bernard Langer, recently turned 50! Bet now at PinnacleSports.com for the best odds on Golfing head to heads.
Home Field Advantage in the Premiership
The Inside Wagering Line from Pinnacle Sports Book by Hobbes
Home Field Advantage in the Premiership
One look at last season's English Premier League table will tell you that home teams scored more goals than visiting teams (552 v 349). In fact, ever since the English Football Association formed the first ever football league in 1888, it has always been that way. QED - home teams enjoy a natural advantage over away teams.
This might be stating the obvious, but many bettors fail to understand the importance of Home Field Advantage (HFA). At PinnacleSports.com we use HFA as the basis for much of our odds setting on football. The key to remember is that when a bookmaker sets a line, they are not necessarily trying to predict who will win the game, but rather find the point where they can generate balanced action. The challenge that bettors face is to be more accurate than the bookmaker in estimating the strength of HFA and play to win.
In American Football, there is a 3 point standard value for HFA, based on historical data on home points scored versus away points scored. This figure naturally masks deviations based on team and seasonality, so in pricing future games, odds makers will use the standard 3-point HFA as a guide, but adjust it for game specific factors.
The NFL lends itself easily to HFA measurements because given the 'closed' status of the league (absence of relegation) and draft system, there is a fairly level playing field. Such notions do not apply to English football, so despite over a century of raw data, you can be forgiven for not knowing the standard HFA for the English top flight, as no accepted figure exists. This presents opportunities for astute players.
The main reason for this is the level of polarisation that the open league system (based on promotion & relegation) has created. This is particularly important since the start of the Premier League in 1992, when the financial rewards of success have dramatically increased the gap between the haves and have nots.
The Premier League is currently contested by twenty clubs but there have been a total of forty clubs that have played in the top flight since its inception in 1992. However, only seven teams have contested all 15 seasons. Looking at the HFA figures for those sides should provide meaningfully consistent data.
The stats are freely available, and by copying the required data into an Excel spreadsheet, it's a fairly simple task to arrive at a basic figure for HFA using the following calculation:
HFA = (Home Goals For - Home Goals Against)
Home Games Played
For example, in the 2006/07 season, Manchester United's HFA would calculate as follows; 46 (goals for) minus 12 (goals against) for a goal difference of 34 divided by 19 games played at Old Trafford = 34/19 = 1.79
The table below gives the HFA advantage for the seven ever-present Premier League teams:
|HFA || Liverpool ||ManU ||Spurss ||lArsenal ||Villa ||Chelseaa ||Everton|
|15yr ||1.09 ||1.49 ||0.40 ||1.17 ||0.41 ||1.00 ||0.28|
|3yr ||1.26 ||1.46 ||0.75 ||1.74 ||0.26 ||1.67 ||0.46|
|1yr ||1.68 ||1.79 ||0.63 ||1.42 ||0.32 ||1.37 ||0.84|
|Current ||3.00 ||0.67 ||1.00 ||1.33 ||0.67 ||1.00 ||0.50|
The theory behind HFA is to find value for example by either backing the home team when the Asian handicap is less than their HFA, or betting the visiting team when the Asian handicap exceeds the HFA.
Dedicated players may seek to find an even greater edge by refining their calculations to see what influence any number of factors might have on HFA for a particular team, division or domestic league. They might apply a filter so that only home games during a specific period are considered such as over the festive season, or against teams with a higher/lower league position, or teams newly promoted to the Premiership etc. etc. The possibilities are endless.
It is with these various refinements in subjective areas that astute players stay one step ahead of the bookmaker to reap maximum returns. Additional known influences to consider include:
Referees & Home Crowds
Harvard research assistant, Ryan Boyko studied 5,000 Premiership games from 1992 to 2006, to discern any officiating bias and the influence of home crowds. The data suggested that for every additional 10,000 people attending, home team advantage increased by 0.1 goals. Additionally, his study proved what many football fans already suspect, that home teams are likely to receive more penalties, but crucially, this is more likely with inexperienced referees. So building referee profiles can clearly be a very telling refinement for HFA figures.
Seasonality & Games of Special Significance
HFA is anecdotally shown to increase for important games, including local Derbies, which logically attract high attendances and increased fervour. Look for anything that might raise the level of intensity such as emotive local stories, important club anniversaries or memorials for players/managers/significant events.
Breaking News & Injuries
Paying attention to team news is critically important. This process should continue right up until kick-off, with a surprising number of players injured during warm-up.
Confidence breeds success, so it is advisable to build in a value for recent form, though it is open for debate as to what constitutes a significant winning or losing run.
A degree of home field advantage is derived from familiarity. That element is greatly devalued when home teams are playing in a new stadium as Arsenal did last season at the Emirates Stadium. Judging the 'bedding in' period is an important judgement to make.
Further areas to consider would include:
Analysing HFA in conjunction with lateral thinking can give bettors an edge, but only in conjunction with low commission betting, at sportsbooks such as PinnacleSports.com.
Euro 2008 Qualifiers, Rugby World Cup, NFL start
The Pinnacle Post from PinnacleSports.com
Euro 2008 Qualification - Crunch Time For McClaren
England approach two critical Euro 2008 fixtures without several key players. Lampard, Rooney and Beckham are all unavailable for the games against Israel and Russia which could determine both England's chances of reaching the finals, and the likelihood of Steve McClaren keeping his job. The pick of the other qualifiers is the World Cup final rematch with Italy and France battling for Group B superiority. Bet now! Click here
Rugby World Cup - Will New Zealand Choke Again?
Though the All Blacks were the first winners of the Webb Ellis Trophy back in 1987, they have disappointed both fans and backers alike by failing to repeat their initial success. With reigning champions England looking out of sorts, the Kiwis are once again strong favourites to win the World Cup. Will 2007 finally be the year of the All Black? Check out PinnacleSports.com for low margin pricing on ALL matches at the 2007 Rugby World Cup.
NFL - Start of the Regular Football Season
Week one of the regular NFL season starts with a bang on Thursday as the World Champion Indianapolis Colts host the New Orleans Saints at the RCA Dome. With a full schedule of games kicking off Sunday, PinnacleSports.com will be offering sides, totals and moneylines as well as team totals, 1st and 2nd half odds and low margin props on EVERY game, ALL season long with prices that offer up to 60% better value than other bookmakers.
Rugby World Cup Betting Preview
Rugby World Cup Betting Preview
The sixth Rugby World Cup which begins on Friday in the Stade de France will see twenty nations take part in forty eight matches over forty four days. No country has ever retained the Cup and Brian Ashton?s England side are not expected to buck that trend. New Zealand are 4/9 to win their 2nd World Cup and are the best team, but they are not the best bet at those prohibitive odds.
You can back England at 33/1 with betdirect to retain the William Webb Ellis Cup and, whilst we are expecting a swell of patriotic support, the more discerning rugby punter is steering well clear of the holders. They lack the class and pace to break down top class international defences and the squad is reliant on experience and strength at the expense of youth and flair.
England face Samoa, Tonga, USA and South Africa in the Group stages and ought to qualify, but they are 5/2 to top the Group (South Africa 1/4 favourites). Unless they beat the Springboks they are likely to meet Australia in the quarter finals in Marseille on October 6th, and the Aussies showed their class when they beat the All Blacks at the MCG at the end of June.
England are 8/11 at betdirect to be knocked out at the quarter final stage and that is proving very popular. If you believe we can beat the Aussies as in 2003, or you feel we will top the group and make our way into the last four, probably at the expense of Wales, we are 9/4 to be eliminated at the semi final stage and 10/1 to be the runners up.
Of the other home Nations Ireland are 20/1 to land the Trophy but they are too reliant on the skills of Brian O?Driscoll and his latest injury scare is a concern. Wales are 66/1 whilst Scotland are 200/1. The Irish are not guaranteed to reach the knock out stages given they face hosts France and Argentina. The Pumas did lose to Wales at the Millennium Stadium 27-20 recently but the 2/1 that the Irish do not reach the quarter finals looks very big to me.
Wales look sure to reach the last eight but we are confident that is where their World Cup journey will end and they are 4/11 to be eliminated at that stage. They are 3/1 to lose in the semi finals and 16/1 to be tournament runners up.
Scotland have no chance of beating New Zealand despite the game being played at Murrayfield but are 8/11 to win their group without the All Blacks. The runners up slot is likely to be decided by the final group game between Scotland and Italy at St Etienne on the 29th September. The Azzurri beat the Scots 37-17 at Murrayfield back in February and are a confident selection to confirm the form. The Scots are 11/10 at betdirect not to qualify and that looks too big.
When you consider the All Blacks have in their group both Portugal and Romania the tournament?s top try scorer is likely to be a New Zealand back. But which one? It is possible that first-choice wingers Joe Rokocoko and Sivivatu will not play against the minnows of Portugal and Romania and it is likely that New Zealand will score at least ten tries in both matches. Second-guessing team selection is difficult but the recommendation is having a couple of quid on Malili Muliaina (14/1 at betdirect ) who can play anywhere in the backs and looks just the type to score a hatful against the lesser lights.
France were impressive against the English and Welsh recently and with home advantage they are the recommendation at 7/1 for the outright, although I suggest a saver at 9/4 in the market without the All Blacks.
Visit betdirect today for all Rugby World Cup prices.