In a bid to unearth some value I have decided to disregard some of the favourites. Of the shorter prices (if you can call an 8/1 favourite short), Sergio Aguero (8/1 with StanJames) and Fernando Torres (10/1 with PaddyPower) appeal the most. The former was sublime in only his first season in the Premier League, adapting to the robust English game by returning with figures of 23 goals in 34 top-flight appearances. As for the latter, a more leaner Torres should shine in a Chelsea side which is now shorn of Didier Drogba and brimming with creative talent – though a jump of faith is needed with this fellow considering how drastic his scoring form has been ever since becoming Stamford Bridge’s most expensive import in January 2011.
First up is Luis Suarez (16/1 with SkyBet). Why? Because he’s the shortest in price of all my selections, and because he is my preferred selection.
The controversial South American has the ability to do what few other out an out strikers can, which is carve out chances all by himself. So, what with Liverpool boasting quite a few individuals capable of threading those killer balls through (Lucas, Allen and Gerrard in particular), goalscoring opportunities should be plentiful this season. Some may cite his lack of goals last season, or how wasteful he was, as a possible reason to steer well clear. Or even his tainted reputation off the field. I, however, turn to his prolific record while in Holland, with Ajax: 81 goals in 110 appearances is phenomenal and serves as evidence, despite the debatable opposition, that the forward, nicknamed ‘El Pistolero’ back home, is a composed finisher, with the potential there to be prolific.
Suarez will be jeered at every ground he visits this season – but don’t panic, as that won’t phase him in the slightest. If anything he feeds of it. He’s a fiery character who does not shy away from confrontation. Get on him at 16/1 to really irk opposing fans, by scoring the goals that condemn their side to defeat.
My second pick is Croatian Nikica Jelavic (33/1 with PaddyPower). At £5million, 26-year-old Jelavic proved a snip at the end of last season, by which time he had nine goals in just ten starts for his new employers, Everton. Extremely powerful in the air, but equally adept with the ball at his feet, the former Rangers hitman has garnered a reputation for being ruthlessly clinical in front of goal and, at stunning odds of 33/1, is a fantastic bet to end his first full term in the Premier League amongst the goals yet again.
No midfielder has ever got their hands on the Premier League Golden Boot. Frank Lampard (80/1 with Bet365) and Steven Gerrard (100/1 with SkyBet) have been thereabouts for almost a decade now, but dare I say they’re entering the twilights of their illustrious careers? If either can avoid the treatment room, then they’ll probably be in amongst it again, Gerrard especially, with the England skipper tipped to play in a more advanced role under new manager Brendan Rodgers for Liverpool in the forthcoming campaign. Throw in spot-kick duties, as well as a share of the free-kicks, and Anfield’s talisman could make a mockery of his monstrous odds.
A healthier midfield alternative is that of Tottenham’s Gareth Bale (150/1 with BetVictor), although he, too, seems to struggle when it comes to steering clear of the treatment room. Should he, however, evade the clutches of the team doctors, Bale, in the prime of his career, would stand a greater chance than any other midfielder of staking a claim for the Golden Boot. His blistering turn of foot and almost unrivalled pace makes getting in behind defences that much easier; and with a lack of strikers at the club, the goalscoring burden will inevitably fall on the Welshman, who finished last season fourth overall in the Premier League in terms of scoring midfielders, netting nine times, two fewer than team-mate Rafael van der Vaart.
Bale, having rapidly grown in stature and in confidence on the back of several impressive campaigns for him personally, is also more inclined to take on shots nowadays. I have no idea why he didn’t originally as this boy can certainly strike a mean ball. He’s also a huge threat from corners with his height – and he will score a few headers this season, mark my word. He can also be deadly from the odd free-kick. So odds of 150/1 are astonishing!
Finally, Danny Graham (125/1 with BetVictor). It has been a while since we saw a genuine shock in the Golden Boot market; Kevin Phillips taking home the award for his 30-goal haul in the 1999-2000 term is the one that instantly springs to my mind. The chances of a similar turn up for the books occurring this season are very slim, very slim indeed, in a league boasting too many world class center-forwards. However Graham, who will be the focal point in a Swansea side that will play with the same swagger on the ball under new manager Michael Laudrup that they did under Brendan Rodgers, is worth taking a chance on with small stakes.
Many thought he would struggle against Premier League defences. For a while, in the early stages, it appeared the critics were correct in their assessment of a 27-year-old who had spent his entire career up till then in the lower leagues, most of which was spent out on loan. Despite a slow start however, having waited until the seventh game of the season to open his top-flight account, Graham ended the term with decent scoring figures of 12 goals in 36 appearances, missing just two games. With a full season under his belt, Swansea should reap the benefits of a confident finisher who’ll have a better idea of what he’s up against second time around.
2012/2013 Premier League Top Goalscorer
Naps – Luis Suarez @ 16/1 with SkyBet, & Nikica Jelavic @ 33/1 with PaddyPower
Value Punts – Steven Gerrard @ 100/1 with SkyBet; Gareth Bale @ 150/1 with BetVictor, & Danny Graham @ 125/1 with BetVictor
Most firms should pay four places at ¼ the odds on Top Goalscorers.
