2016 Grand National betting update, 2016-04-09

The Druids Nephew to relish Aintree test

Horse Racing Tips

Saturday 9th April 2016 Race Time 1715hrs
Grand National
Horse Racing – Aintree Racecourse – England

As promised in my main preview of this year’s Grand National – which can be found here – this will post will provide an update on the selections given and the likely conditions going into the race. Saturday will be the third day of what has been a highly eventful and entertaining festival of racing and it’s all gearing up for the big race itself.

The most important update is that Bishops Road, one of the selections for the race, has failed to make the cut and therefore will not line-up in tomorrow’s race. The Kerry Lee trained horse took his chance in the Topham this afternoon but came down at the first after an uncharacteristic jumping error. I suggested during my original preview that anybody backing him ante-post should do so with a firm that was offering non-runner no bet, so I hope you managed to do this and you will have had your stake returned. I have one more horse selected as a replacement but more on that later.

There has been a lot of rain around Liverpool this week and that has meant the ground has been riding on the soft side for the first two days. It has been hard work for the horses and will mean that tomorrow’s race will be an out-and-out slog which will hamper the chances of a lot of horses. Of the two races that have been run over the national fences this week, there have been only 27 horses finishing out of 51 runners. With a maximum field of 40 looking set to take their chance in the National, it will be interesting to see how many horses can cope with the stamina-sapping test, particularly as the race is run at an unusually frenetic pace for the distance of it, and the fact that the fences are so unique and one mistake can virtually end a horse and it’s riders participation.

In terms of the other two horses I put up, the Holywell remains strong in the market and is as low as 12/1 with a number of firms. I made note that he’s a horse who prefers better ground and whilst it’s certainly not ideal to see more rain forecast for this evening, I would not give up on him just yet. He remains one of the classiest horses in the field and his trainer had a winner over the fences in the Topham today, which is a small positive. The main update around the second selection, Boston Bob, is that Ruby Walsh elected to ride another horse but will now miss the race altogether because of injury. Boston Bob will now be ridden by Paul Townend who is an excellent deputy and I have no worries in that respect. The horse does have good form in softer conditions but the worry is how it will affect his stamina. I’ve already put my money on it so I just hope that he takes to the unique test and is in a good position from the outset. His price ranges from 20/1 to 33/1 so there is quite a disagreement of how he will go.

Due to Bishops Run not getting into the race, and with conditions different to what I expect, I felt it was only right to put one more horse up. The Druids Nephew will be going in his second-straight Grand National for trainer Neil Mulholland who would have been getting very excited last year when the horse took up the lead five fences from home only to buckle on landing and coming down. He was full of running at the time and having won so impressively at the Cheltenham Festival the month before, was extremely well handicapped. He is nine pounds higher this year but that should not rule him out the equation and whilst it was second to The Last Samuri at Doncaster in March, there is plenty to like about its chances. It is usually a very accurate jumper and appears to have endless stamina so the conditions are unlikely to be an issue. With Dennis O’Regan on top it has a jockey who knows how to navigate round this course having finished second in 2010. He will be a good partner for The Druids Nephew, too, as O’Regan is a patient jockey so will just plot his way around, biding his time as the race unfolds. There has been a bit of a gamble on him over the last few days but he’s still a very backable price and should run another huge race.

Hopefully you are on at good odds for the both the Holywell and Boston Bob, and we can now substitute The Druids Nephew for the unfortunate Bishops Road. Let’s hope all 40 horses return safe and well and we are all talking about what promises to be an amazing spectacle yet again.

The Druids Nephew E/W 16/1 @ Bet365