Aston Villa v Birmingham
Tuesday 22nd September – Kickoff: 1945hrs
Football – England – League Cup
This will be the first second-city derby since January 2011, and the first experience of it for both Tim Sherwood and Gary Rowett as managers. The Birmingham manager never played against Villa during his time at the Blues as a player so there will be plenty of pride and bragging rights at stake, as there always is when these two meet. The Championship club are certainly coming into this game in better form but that will count for very little when the whilst blows for kick-off.
Despite winning their first game of the season – away to newly promoted Bournemouth – Aston Villa have endured a fairly dismal first half dozen games in the Premier League. That opening day success remains their only league win, and they have actually only picked up one more point, since. A 2-2 draw at home to Sunderland is sandwiched in between consecutive defeats, most recently away to Leicester and at home to West Brom. Sherwood has shown real frustration at the end of both those games, particularly the 3-2 loss at Leicester as Villa had taken a two goal lead on that occasion. In some ways this could be an ideal fixture as there is plenty at stake against their bitter rivals, but it could also prove to be a very tricky encounter as they are expected to progress against a side who are a league below.
Since Rowett took over as manager at St Andrews, Birmingham have been on an upward trajectory. The former Burton Albion boss took over when the Blues were second bottom of the Championship and had just been thumped 8-0 at home to Bournemouth. Rowett and his coaching staff were able to stabilise the club and led them to a very respectable 10th placed finish and they have built on that strong showing to sit just outside the play-off zone on goal difference, despite having played a game less than the majority of the other side’s in the Championship. They have tasted defeat only once in their first seven league games, illustrating how difficult they are to beat. Birmingham have actually lost only nine of the 39 league games since Rowett took over, suggesting they will be a very difficult proposition for their Premier League opponents on Tuesday evening.
Sherwood’s men required extra-time to see off League Two side Notts County in the last round after a 3-3 draw at the end of 90 minutes. They were actually behind three times in that tie, before goals Scott Sinclair completed his hat-trick and Joe Bennett secured the victory. It is unlikely we will see eight goals on Tuesday but Sherwood will be hoping it can act as a catalyst to get his attackers back on form at Villa Park where they have managed to score only twice in the Premier League in their three matches to date.
Birmingham have seen off lower league opposition in their first two matches in this competition, winning away to Bristol Rovers before a comfortable home success against Gillingham. Rowett’s men have yet to taste defeat on their travels this season, and have scored in all three of their away games in the Championship. With confidence bound to be high, especially after a credible draw away to Ipswich on Friday, there will be more than a few Birmingham supporters who will fancy their team to cause a slight upset.
Aston Villa v Birmingham Betting Tips
These games are amongst the most fiercely contested fixtures in the whole of English football, and that should be even more of the case with the gap that has occurred since the two last met. With so much expectation on both managers to win this game for the sake of their supporters, I do not think there will be wholesale changes. Sherwood knows there will be a lot of pressure if Villa do fail to progress here, not only because they are favourites due to their Premier League status, but because they have not kicked on from that good win at Bournemouth. On the other hand, a win for Birmingham would be a further confidence boost in their bid to challenge for a play-off spot and possible promotion.
As there is going to be a lot at stake, I am keen to look at the cards markets for this one. These sort of markets can often be over bet in derby games but there are enough reasons to suggest it could be the way to go, here. With respect to their disciplinary record in the league this season, games involving Birmingham have averaged 4.9 cards, whilst games involving Villa average 4.7 cards. Neither team have been involved a game featuring a red card yet, but the last 10 meetings between the two have seen five or more cards on seven occasions. The atmosphere is bound to be ferocious, as it usually is, and it has the makings of a typical British derby game.
Over 4.5 cards 10/11 @ Bet365
