Football – England – Premier League
Saturday 11th May 2013 – Kickoff: 1245hrs
Aston Villa entertain third placed Chelsea at Villa Park in the solitary Premiership match of this Saturday owing to the FA Cup final being played later in the afternoon.
Aston Villa have virtually ensured their Premiership status following some decent results of late which have included wins over relegation rivals Reading and QPR back in March and further wins over Stoke City 3-1 away, a 6-1 drubbing of Sunderland and last weekend’s 2-1 win at Norwich City looks to have prevented an embarrassing exit from the top flight.
These five wins from their last eight overall have lifted the midlands club into the relative safety of 13th place and the supposed 40 point threshold that guarantees avoidance of being relegated, but in recent seasons this point tally has increased so Villa need a further point I feel to absolutely guarantee their top flight status.
Aston Villa’s home record stands at a disappointing 5-5-8 22/26 but to be fair, current manager Paul Lambert inherited a very dispirited Villa outfit following Alex McLeish’s unsuccessful first tenure and it has taken time to rebuild the confidence. Villa have actually performed better on the road than on home soil in the last few weeks as their home form has been quite inconsistent. This opens the door here for Chelsea…
Onto visitors Chelsea then, and they’ve seen their position at the top of English elite’s league usurped by Manchester City as they find themselves now third in the pecking order of the Premiership. Nevertheless, despite Benitez’s expectancy that former manager Jose Mourinho will return to Stamford Bridge, he will be keen to ensure that his Chelsea outfit claim that final third vital position which automatically entitles them to Champions League football next season.
Retiring Manchester United manager Alex Ferguson pointed to Benitez’s constant references to his CV, so I suspect this will be his major aim for the last two matches of this season. The Blues are as I said in third place with 69 points but they’ll be very much aware of fourth and fifth placed Arsenal and Tottenham respectively, breathing down their necks to grab European qualification.
But Chelsea are in good form right now having lost just once in their last nine Premier league matches which was an unexpected 1-2 defeat away at Southampton, but wins over Sunderland, Fulham (in the ‘posh’ London derby), Swansea City and the big one over Manchester United at Old Trafford a few days ago puts them in a good position for automatic qualification of the CL.
Chelsea’s away record stands at 9-4-5 32/22 and they seem to have overcome their sticky patch recently where they lost three away matches on the trot at Newcastle United 2-3, Manchester City 0-2 and Southampton, with wins at Fulham and Man Utd and a draw at Liverpool.
In summary, Aston Villa have performed well against the teams around them in the division, but the visit of a strong Chelsea team may just be beyond their reach this afternoon. I’ll back The Blues to edge this one perhaps by a 1-0 margin.
Pick: Chelsea straight win @ 1.91 Betfred
