Barcelona v Bayer Leverkusen
Tuesday 29th September – Kickoff: 1945hrs
Football – Europe – Champions League
The big news surrounding Barcelona is that Lionel Messi will be missing for the best part of two months after suffering a knee injury in the first half of his club’s win over Las Palmas. It goes without saying how influential the little forward is, but Barca remain firm favourites to progress from this group despite Messi likely to miss the next three Champions League fixtures. Their opening game in group E finished 1-1 away to Roma which is a more than acceptable start. It means that should the current European champions won all three home games, it’s likely they will finish top which has proven to be very important come the draw for the knockout stage.
Roger Schmidt led his Leverkusen players to the last 16 in 2014/15, in what was his first season in charge. It was an impressive effort and one the Germans will hope to match this season. Having reached the group stage via qualifying (a 3-1 aggregate win over Lazio), their campaign got off to the perfect start with a comprehensive 4-1 home win over BATE. It was a game they were expected to win, but they done it in good fashion and illustrated how good they are going forward. Tuesday’s game will obviously be a completely different test but there are a lot of goals in this side so expect them to take the game to their hosts, when they can.
Luis Enrique has laid down a challenge to Luis Suarez, Neymar and the other Barcelona attackers to ensure they step up to the plate and make light of Messi’s absence. Suarez notched both goals in Saturday’s win as well as the goal that earned Barcelona a point in Rome, but he’s not been as prolific as his manager would like so this will be the perfect time for the Uruguayan to go on a run. With Pedro no longer an option since moving to Chelsea, Messi is likely to be replaced by one of Munir or Sandro which is an indication of how thin their squad is due to the transfer embargo they are currently under.
Although Heung-Min Seung has been sold following a string of impressive performances in last season’s Champions League, the Bundesliga club have managed to bring in quality players to replace the Korean. Arguably the biggest name that arrived at Leverkusen during the last transfer window was Javier Hernandez who was on-loan at Real Madrid last term, before signing from Manchester United. He scored on his Champions League debut for his new club against BATE and looked lively throughout. He will be ably supported by Karim Bellarabi and Hakan Calhanoglu who also impressed in that game. Both are very exciting and will be a massive threat to a Barcelona defence which has looked very shaky this season.
Barcelona v Bayer Leverkusen Betting Tips
This would more than likely be a routine win for a Barcelona team containing Leo Messi, and it could well be the same if Neymar and Suarez are at the top of their game. The absence of the little argentine will give the visitors a boost, however, particularly as the last time they visited then Nou Camp, they were on the end of a 7-1 thrashing – where Messi scored five of them.
I alluded to how vulnerable the Barcelona defence has looked for the majority of this season, and they come into this match having failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five games across all competitions. Marc-Andre Ter Stegen has come in for a lot of criticism during that run and the goalkeeper will be facing his fellow countrymen with a point to prove.
Leverkusen’s strength is going forward but they will have to defend for large periods of this game which will be a test of their organisation and concentration. Two successive clean sheets in the Bundesliga will have given them some confidence but they came on the back of a disappointing 3-0 loss away to Borussia Dortmund. They had plenty of chances during that encounter and will have to be more clinical if presented with any opportunities on Tuesday.
The bet I like for this game is both teams to score. The bet has landed in Barcelona’s last five games, and the pace at which Leverkusen break at could present a fragile home defence with a lot of problems, particularly in the wide areas. It’s almost unthinkable that Barcelona will fail to score having scored at least once in their 11 Champions League home games. Incidentally, six of those 11 games have seen both teams finding the back of the net.
Both teams to score 10/11 @ William Hill
