It has been a dramatic week for Pep Guardiola and Bayern Munich. After being well beaten by Porto in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final, the club’s medical staff quit in protest at being blamed for the loss by the manager. Reports suggest that Guardiola was unhappy with how many injuries that key squad members have picked up this season which never went down too well. Back to matters on the field and the Germans look to have a huge struggle on their hands as they bid to overturn the 3-1 loss suffered in Portugal last Wednesday. When you look back at the goals Bayern conceded, they all resulted from individual errors. It is not something you would expect from a side who are normally so efficient, particularly as the likes of Phillip Lahm and Xabi Alonso were at fault – two of the most reliable players in World football.
Few gave Porto a chance when the draw was originally made but for those who did give them a glimmer, felt that taking advantage to Germany would be crucial. They managed that, of course, in some style. Although Bayern’s mistakes directly contributed to all of their goals, Porto still played at a very high level, restricting their more-fancied opponents to few chances. The job is only half done, however, and if they are to finish the job and qualify for their first semi-final in this competition since they were victorious back in 2003. They will travel to Bayern in confident mood, though, in the knowledge that they are unbeaten in their four away games in this season’s Champions League. Draws against Shakthar and Basel and victories over Athletic Bilbao and BATE show that they are more than capable of picking up results on their travels.
Any team in the world would miss Arjen Robben and Frank Ribery when unavailable which has certainly been the case for Bayern Munich. The duo provide so much of their team’s attacking threat and it was noticeable how little they threatened a well-organised Porto defence. Neither will be available for the return leg so Guardiola has to look elsewhere for the inspiration that is required. The runaway Bundesliga leaders have yet to concede a goal at home in this competition since their humbling to Real Madrid in last year’s semi final. If they can maintain that record then it would significantly increase the chance of them overturning the two goal deficit.
Porto will have to do without two of their key players for Tuesday’s game as Danilo and Alex Sandro will be missing after both picked up bookings meaning they serve a one match suspension. Although both are full-backs, they are vital to how Porto play and provide so much width when attacking. Without their services, Julen Lopetgui (a former team-mate of Guardiola’s at Barcelona) may look to play more conservatively. That is always the temptation for a side trying to protect a lead but it may be even more so as they will find it impossible to replace the impact that the two Brazilian’s have had this season.
Despite trailing 3-1, Bayern are still long odds on to win the second leg but it is Porto who are slight favourites to qualify for the next round. I struggle to see any point in backing the home team to win in 90 minutes but I would not write them off to reach the semi-finals just yet. A two goal win is certainly not beyond them and that would be enough thanks to their away goal. Guardiola has an excellent record in the competition and knows exactly what is required – he certainly will not go all out from the start of the game. I expect a more cagey game than last week and have decided to select two bets. The first is for Bayern to continue to shoutout opposition teams at home in the Champions League and keep Porto to ‘nil’. I also think they will just fall short, however, and Porto can make their first semi-final for 12 years.
Bayern to win to nil 11/8 @ Sportingbet
Porto to qualify 10/11 @ Coral
