Benfica v Atletico Madrid Betting Tip 2, 2015-12-08

Atleti to take the spoils in Lisbon.

Champions League Tips

Tuesday 8th December Kickoff: 1945hrs
Benfica v Atletico Madrid
Football – Europe – Champions League

Tuesday marks the final round of fixtures in the 2015/16 group stage for 16 clubs, but both Benfica and Atletico Madrid have already guaranteed their extended participation and will battle it out in Lisbon to qualify as group winners, in the hope they draw a kinder tie in the first knockout phase.

The first half of this season has been one of transition for Benfica following the departure of Jorge Jesus who had been in charge of the club for six years. Jesus stunned the current Portuguese champions when electing to join rivals Sporting Lisbon during the summer, and whilst it has definitely had an adverse impact on them domestically, the new man Rui Victoria, has succeeded in ensuring the club qualified for the next stage of European’s premier club competition. Three wins (including a surprise 2-1 win in Madrid) means that any sort of victory on Tuesday would see them top the group.

Atletico Madrid have been very efficient in their first five games in Group C and can finish above their opponents on Tuesday by avoiding defeat. Diego Simeone’s men have recovered from losing at home to Benfica back in October and have kept clean sheets in all three of their subsequent Champions League matches. Another one guarantee them of that top spot and likely provide them with a better opportunity of progressing to the quarter-finals – a stage they have reached in each of the last two seasons. Simeone will want to finish in style, however, especially as the 2-1 defeat was their first even home loss under him in this competition.

I touched upon Benfica’s struggles in the Portuguese league where they sit third – eight points behind leaders Sporting. An indication of their struggles is that they have already lost three games, which was the total number they lost in the whole of last season when the title for the second successive season.

Although Barcelona have been grabbing all the headlines in La Liga in recent weeks, Atletico have been going about their business very quiet, but no less effective. The 2013/14 Spanish Champions are only a couple of points behind Barca, and have won four of their last five league games, as well as being unbeaten, domestically, since September. They might not possess the same attacking threat as Barcelona, but they have a system that works for them and it’s proving very difficult for opposition teams to get the better of.

Benfica v Atletico Madrid Betting Tips

Some may look to put forward ab argument that this game will not have the same edge to it as some of the other games in match day six and look to avoid betting on it as a result. I do not believe that will be the case, however, as the rewards for finishing top of your Champions League section cannot be underestimated. I also think Atletico will be out for revenge after the first meeting between those two.

Benfica have certainly performed better in Europe than they have domestically, this season, with their only defeat coming away to Galatasaray. Home wins over that opponent and the minnows Astana will give them some confidence that they can make it three from three in their own stadium, giving them the win that will put them top. One key issue for them, though, is that there is probably no worse team to be playing when needing a win than Atletico Madrid. Atleti are one of the best drilled teams in European football and know exactly what it takes to get a result. Benfica remain the only team to score against them in the Champions League this term and will have to breach their defence again for the three points on Tuesday.

I think this game is set up perfectly for Simeone and his players. Benfica simply have to win the game if they gave aspirations of finishing top which will no doubt allow the visitors to soak up pressure before trying to hit them on the break. That is when Atletico are at their most dangerous and I fancy them to take all three points, avenging that defeat on match day two. The main risk for backing the away win is that they settle for a point as that will also ensure top spot, but at the odds, there is enough value to mitigate against that risk.

Atletico Madrid 13/10 @ Coral