Championship
Saturday 17th March 2012 – Kickoff: 1500hrs
Birmingham City entertain fourth placed Middlesbrough at St Andrews on Saturday afternoon with the home side looking to break a run of four matches without a win and get their play-off campaign back on track.
Birmingham have faltered at a crucial stage but they still have time to rectify their recent lapse in form; losses to east midlands rivals Nottingham Forest and Leicester City along with draws against Derby County and Coventry City have hindered Blues’ previous good form and momentum. They will particularly be ruing their draw against Derby as they held a 2-0 lead only to let The Rams back in and gain a point.
Birmingham’s home record stands at 10-7-1 26/10, and whilst they’ve never been prolific scorers of goals, they generally keep things tight at the back and that is reflected by their ten clean sheets on home soil so far this season. This alarming run of form however will be difficult to halt immediately with the visit of a good away side like Middlesbrough – more on them later on.
Just four goals in Birmingham’s last five home matches is also not a good sign as they look to kick-start their play-off run-in. Striker Marlon King looks the most likely to register, and is due to face one of his many former clubs having turned out 13 times for the Boro. Nikola Zigic is likely to partner him up front while new signing Caleb Folan will probably have to settle for a place on the bench.
Fourth placed Middlesbrough will be looking to close the gap on third placed West Ham with a win at Birmingham, but will know they face a tough task of breaking down the midlanders who possess a strong defensive record at St Andrews.
Boro’s away record stands at 9-3-4 24/20, and despite some mixed results recently, they’ve done enough to maintain their position in the top six and look set to be one of the play-off contenders come the end of the season. Recent losses at home to Reading and Leeds United have been off-set by wins over Millwall, Portsmouth and Barnsley, and they appear to not have the consistency required to make the automatic promotion spots.
It’s interesting to see that their last six away matches have all ended in over 2.5 goals with the following results; 3-2 at Cardiff City, 0-3 at Blackpool, 1-3 at Coventry City, 2-2 at Leicester City and then 3-1 wins at Millwall and Portsmouth respectively.
Goals have been predominantly scored by Scott Macdonald and Leroy Lita although these two were missing against Leeds and indeed Macdonald looks as though he’ll miss the rest of the season. Also likely to miss the trip to Birmingham is Boro’s influential midfielder Barry Robson (5 goals, 6 assists) due to being sent off, but Julio Arca is always a dangerous customer.
Birmingham could also leap back into play-off contention with all three points here and indeed displace Boro in fourth spot due to a better goal difference, but I fear this prospect could well play on their minds in front of an increasingly restless St Andrews crowd, and this could end up in a draw. I’ll go for a 1-1 scoreline then, with my main pick being an Under 2.5 result.
Main Pick: Under 2.5 @ 1.67 Paddy Power
Value Pick: Draw @ 3.50 Betfred
