Championship Play-Off Semi Final 1st Leg
Friday 4th May 2012 – Kickoff: 1945hrs
The second play-off semi final is at Bloomfield Road on Friday night which sees Blackpool take on Birmingham City in the first of their two legs.
This fixture throws up all sort of possibilities, but if we break it down piece by piece then we should get the more likely pick with a bit of value thrown in. Blackpool ensured their passage into the play-offs with a seven match unbeaten run which included wins over promoted Southampton, Watford, Leeds United and Burnley, whilst taking a point against Barnsley, Nottingham Forest and Millwall, with the first two fighting to avoid relegation.
The Seasiders’ home record stands at 13-7-3 42/21, and this is where it starts to get interesting; in their 23 home matches, Blackpool have failed to score just twice while their average goals per game (AGPG = 2.74 goals per game). They’ve kept nine clean sheets which is 3.9% of their total matches at home. Only Southampton (49 goals) have scored more home goals than Blackpool in the Championship.
Considering their attacking options also – ex-Birmingham striker Kevin Phillips (16 goals, 3 assists), Gary Taylor-Fletcher (8 goals, 10 assists), Stephen Crainey (10 assists), along with Matthew Phillips (7 goals, 4 assists) and Thomas Ince (6 goals, 6 assists), they possess plenty of options in the final third.
Another factor to consider that is not stats-based but Blackpool do not have a great away record (7-8-8 37/38), and they know the second leg at St Andrews is a tough place to go to get a result, so the onus is on them to attack in this fixture to take a lead to Birmingham next week.
It’s been a long, hard slog for the Bluenoses this season when you consider their Europa League participation, each of their FA Cup fixtures against Wolves and Chelsea respectively both went to replays, and they had to play catch-up with the rest of the Championship with regards to their league fixtures as a result of their European commitments.
Not that I’m making any excuses, but manager Chris Hughton will be delighted that they qualified for the play-offs, now it’s time for his boys to step up with a Premiership place up for grabs. In their favour, Blues have experienced the play-offs before, and the last time out (if my memory serves me), they beat Norwich City in the final at Cardiff (I was there that day!) thanks to a nail-biting penalty by Darren Carter; but we all knew it would go to penalties, and if we were all honest, we’d have said that Blues would blow it.
That’s all history now, and Birmingham got through their remaining nine fixtures unbeaten with wins over Doncaster Rovers, Burnley, Crystal Palace and the champions Reading. The Reading result would have put Blackpool on high alert as they now have to make their home advantage in the first leg count tonight.
Birmingham’s away form steadily improved following a horror November/December where they took just two points from six matches on the road, but ended up with a record of 7-7-9 41/37. It’s interesting to note that Birmingham were the Championship’s top goalscorers away from home, even beating West Ham (40) which is a far cry from last season’s disappointing return (albeit in the Premiership).
Birmingham’s AGPG is 3.39, they’ve kept just two clean sheets on the road which is 0.08% of their away matches, and they’ve failed to score on just three occasions. They also have some key attacking players in the form of strikers Marlon King (16 goals, 10 assists), Nikola Zigic (11 goals), creative midfielder Chris Burke (13 goals, 16 assists), Jordan Mutch (6 assists) with Nathan Redmond and Adam Rooney waiting in the wings.
Blackpool need a result here tonight, and if Birmingham wanted to sit back and pack the midfield, think again – Blackpool don’t play that way and any team playing them at Bloomfield Road get sucked into attacking football whether they like it or not. This will suit Birmingham and they’ve shown this season that they too can score goals on the road; I’ll therefore back Both Teams To Score at a reasonably good price. 1-1 draw.
Main Pick: Both teams to score @ 1.75 Betfair or 1.72 bet365
Value Pick: Draw @ 3.45 Pinnacle
