Wednesday 8th March 2016 Kickoff: 1945hrs Borussia Dortmund v Benfica Football – Europe – Champions League In a set of first leg matches that produced an astonishing amount of goals, the one exception was Benfica against Dortmund in Lisbon – although how it never contained more than one goal is a mystery. Benfica secured a narrow lead at home and also – somehow – kept a clean sheet which will see them travel to Germany feeling they have a good chance of progressing. Dortmund will still be wondering how they were unable to win the game let alone score a goal and will be looking to make amends for that this evening.
It has been a strange season in many aspects for Dortmund as they have been unable to mount a meaningful challenge to Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga, saving their best performances for Europe. There was serious investment in the squad during the summer which increased expectation that Thomas Tuchel’s men would be able to challenge on all fronts but whilst plenty of new players arrived for considerable sums, Dortmund are very much building for the future. In the present, two draws against Real Madrid and winning the remaining four games were enough to see them top their group and set up this clash with Benfica. As alluded to above, it was a case of what could have been with Dortmund passing up so many chances, including a penalty. It certainly was not Pierre Emerick Aubameyang’s finest night in front of goal but the fact he was presented with so many chances will give his team hope of turning this tie around at home. Aubameyang had notched four goals during the group stage, including in both games against Real. He will be vital to Dortmund’s hopes of making it to the quarter final.
It was mission accomplished for Benfica in the first leg despite riding their luck as they bring a lead into this game without having conceded. The Portuguese champions were restricted to few chances but, as he so often does, Greek striker Kostas Mitiroglou was on hand to fire them ahead and some stout defending, excellent goalkeeping and poor finishing on Dortmund’s behalf allowed Benfica to hold on to that lead. Winning games and holding the opposition to nil is something they are accustomed to in their own league, winning 15 games without conceding in the top division in Portugal, but with all due respect to the competition they face week in week out at home, the Champions League is a completely different level. Benfica know they will be in for an extremely tough night in this one and their record away from home in the Champions League is not great to say the least. Their last 20 games on the road in this competition have yielded only four wins but they travel knowing that they can qualify without winning this game thanks to their first leg lead. Rui Vitoria’s side took four points from their three away games during the most recent group stage which should give them some confidence.
Borussia Dortmund Benfica Betting Tip
Without doubt this is one of the more finely balanced second legs and that is reflected in the prices for both teams to qualify. Dortmund are favourites to progress but there’s not much between the prices and the lack of an away goal for Dortmund could well yet prove critical. Their home record in the Champions League is extremely good, though, with 13 wins from their last 19. In that run of games they have scored two or more goals in 11 of them and that’s what will be required if they are to win and qualify within the 90 minutes. Considering their attacking prowess you would expect Benfica needing to score at least one goal themselves and scoring goals away from home in Europe has not been an issue for them having failed to find the next in only three of their last 12.
There are few atmospheres in European football that can rivals Dortmund’s so there will be no lack of support for the home team as they try to turn this around. Their dominance in the first leg cannot be underestimated and even if they managed to take just a fraction of their chances it could easily have been a 3-1 or 4-1 lead coming into this. That’s not the case, however, and there is work to do for the Germans. I would not fancy Benfica being as lucky again this evening and don’t expect Dortmund to require extra time so suggest backing the home team minus a goal.
Borussia Dortmund -1 4/5 @ Coral
