Borussia Dortmund v Liverpool Betting Preview, 2016-04-07

Dortmund should have too much at home

Europa League Tips

Thursday 7th April 2016 Kickoff: 2005hrs
Borussia Dortmund v Liverpool
Football – Europa League – Europe

There is more than one intriguing quarter-final tie in the Europa League on Thursday evening but it is difficult to argue that the most intriguing of them all is the one that sees Jurgen Klopp return to the club where he enjoyed so much success. That, of course, is only part of the story as the match brings together two giants of European football who will have their sights set on winning the whole competition.

Dortmund have already accounted for one English club in this season’s Europa League having been far too good for high-flying Tottenham last time out. Both performances, home and away, were full of quality and suggested that the Germans are playing a level below than where they really should be. The reason why they’re playing in this competition and not the Champions League is because of the disastrous first-half to last season – when Klopp was still in charge – that seen them threatened with relegation. They eventually managed to turn things around and finished the season strongly in order it into Europe for this term. Thomas Tuchel was given them job to replace Klopp and he his appointment has without doubt freshened the whole club up which has improved their fortunes on the field, dramatically. Dortmund sit in second place, five points behind leaders Bayern Munich and remain in with a realistic chance of a surprise title. Having reached the last eight of this competition and with a winnable semi-final against Hertha Berlin in the German Cup on the horizon, it could be a memorable season for them.

The return of Klopp will undoubtedly be the main focus for the German, and English, media before the game but the Liverpool manager will not want to detract from the game itself and is going to be keen to build on what was an authoritative aggregate win against Manchester United last month. The 2-0 win at Anfield arguably flattered their opponents whilst a 1-1 draw in the return at Old Trafford was achieved with consummate ease. These next two games against Dortmund are likely to be a completely different test, however, and whilst Klopp will have great insight on his form club, is that going to be enough to turn the tie in Liverpool’s favour?! There are definite indications that Klopp has the Reds playing at a much higher tempo and becoming fitter as the season goes on. Saturday’s 1-1 draw with Spurs in the Premier League was further evidence of this as Tottenham are recognised as being the fittest team in England and Liverpool were more than match for them in that aspect, as well as the quality of football that they produced. What will be concerning for Liverpool supporters is that Dortmund looked far superior in both when putting Spurs to the sword.

The squad of players that are enjoying a great season at Dortmund were all virtually signed by Klopp so there will be no real surprises in terms of personnel, whilst the system has not changed much either. The most impressive player for Dortmund this season has been Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang who has scored 33 goals in 37 appearances in all competitions this season. Initially signed as a replacement for Mario Gotze under Klopp, Aubameyang is now very much a central striker and Dortmund’s attack is built around him. He was instrumental in the win over Spurs, scoring three of the five goals, and is one of the most sought after players in European football heading into the summer transfer window. His goals are only one dimension to his game, though, it’s his overall play that stands him apart from so many other central strikers. Klopp and Liverpool have to find a way to manage Aubameyang if they are to progress to the semi-finals.

Now that Liverpool are getting their own big names back fully fit, they are beginning to reap the benefits on the park. Daniel Sturridge and Philippe Coutinho have missed large chunks of the season which has resulted in Liverpool being rather toothless in attack during those times. Their return has coincided with Klopp’s team looking much more dangerous as a whole and both scored vital goals in the last round against United. It remains to be seen what the manager’s plans are beyond this season and whether or not he views the central striking position as an area that needs strengthened considering the injury problems that have plagued Sturridge, but if they are to be successful in this competition, this season, then the England internationalist (who is not even guaranteed to be on the plance to France this summer) has to be at his predatory best.

Borussia Dortmund v Liverpool Betting Tips

There is plenty to look forward to in this game even aside from the Klopp story but that should add something extra to the two games. The Dortmund fans will want to show their appreciation for a manager who led them to two league titles and a Champions League final, and it will obviously be an emotional return for the man himself, but it’s the football that will provide the entertainment and the way in which these two match-up, there should be plenty of it.

Dortmund are one of the best attacking teams in European football, possessing a plethora of threats starting with the full-backs. What makes them so good is their patience and willingness to hold on to the ball until the time is right to put the ball in the box or play that crucial pass. Nearly all their goals come from attempts inside the box. Liverpool have shown that they are well capable of scoring goals but they are also vulnerable in defence and that is going to be tested on Thursday night. Klopp will know that they cannot afford to sit back because of how clever and technically gifted Dortmund are when the opposition sit deep so Liverpool must offer a threat in attack.

Dortmund are, on average, scoring more than three goals a game at home this season which illustrates how dangerous they are. Liverpool certainly have enough about them to threaten the hosts but they need to get and keep the ball, something that Spurs (who are one of the best possession teams in England) struggled to do. Everything points to goals in this encounter and whether it’s 3-0 or 2-1, I think Dortmund will have too much for the visitors and will take a lead to Anfield next week after a high-scoring game. A home win and over 2.5 goals in the game would have landed 15 times this season and I expect something similar on Thursday night.

Borussia Dortmund to win and over 2.5 goals 7/5 @ Paddypower