Football – England – League One
Saturday 5th April 2014 – Kickoff: 1500hrs
Second in League One, Brentford, take on a relegation threatened Notts County outfit at Griffin Park on Saturday afternoon knowing that a win could extend their lead over third placed Leyton Orient to eight points and potentially close the gap on League One leaders Wolves.
After three away matches on the trot at Rotherham United 0-3 and 0-0 draws with Oldham Athletic and Sheffield United respectively, Brentford will be glad to return to their Griffin Park ground where they’ve lost on just three occasions to date this season and have made it a stronghold for the last five months.
The Bees have won thirteen of their last fourteen on home turf with notable wins over Peterborough United, Swindon Town, MK Dons, Port Vale and Coventry City and they possess an overall home record of 15-1-3 37/16, winning the most number of home matches in the division. Their one defeat during this purple patch was a 0-3 defeat to Wolves, but since then, Brentford have racked up a further three wins on the trot.
Incidentally, Brentford also hold a 8-1-0 19/3 record over bottom half opposition at home this season, and it’s not surprising given the firepower that they have up front with Donaldson (16 goals), Trotta (12 goals) and Forshaw and Grigg chipping in with 7 and 5 goals respectively.
Visitors Notts County have done their relegation worries no harm at all by registering three wins on the trot recently over Carlisle United 4-1, Crewe Alexandra 3-1 and last Saturday’s 2-0 home win over Colchester United, as The Magpies have lifted themselves out of the bottom four.
However, the threat of relegation remains a very real one as they are still level on points with Carlisle and Crewe, and only two points ahead of bottom club Shrewsbury Town with no fewer than ten clubs involved in possible relegation down to League Two.
Notts County’s win at Crewe ended a horrific run of five straight defeats away from home, while their overall away record still stands at a poor 3-2-15 21/43. In addition, The Magpies have played virtually all of the top half clubs (11 so far) and have lost ten of these matches, the other being a draw. Also, they have lost the most number of away matches in League One and are behind only Crewe (44 goals) in the most number of goals conceded on the road.
All the statistics therefore point towards a Brentford win, but I’ll go one step further and back The Bees to cover the -1 handicap on offer given their attacking prowess and Notts County’s poor defensive record away from home. Brentford to win this one 2-0.
Pick: Brentford AH-1 @ 1.71 Pinnacle
