Football is cliché-ridden, and one of the most overused of all cliché is the relegation six-pointer – but that’s what this weekend’s game at Turf Moor is. Leicester and Burnley were both promoted from the Championship last season, finishing first and second, respectively. The two clubs have found life in the Premier League difficult, however, as you would expect. Both have been situated in the bottom three for the vast majority of the season but it is Leicester who have begun to show their teeth and look the most capable of surviving. Their recent good form has catapulted them to within one goal of safety, but it has also demoted Burnley to the foot of the table. Such are the small margins of the relegation zone, though, if Burnley can actually finish this weekend outside the bottom three.
Sean Dyche has already achieved much more than many would have expected when he took over as Burnley manager in October 2012. Winning automatic promotion in his first full season in charge was completely unexpected, and some would consider it came too early for them. At times Burnley have looked short of quality and struggled to reach the standard required to win games in the Premier League. That being said, however, they have been competitive and Dyche has got his team very well organised of late, conceding only four goals in five games. It is the other end of the pitch where their lack of quality has really hindered them, managing just one goal in their last seven league games. It is something that will definitely have to improve if they are to remain a top flight club.
Another impressive victory – their third in a row – has brought Leicester level on points with Hull, who remain just outside the relegation zone on goal difference alone. The 2-0 home win over Swansea was not as comfortable as it looks but it is an indication of how winning becomes a habit. Had that match taken place a month ago, the chances are Leicester would have succumbed to the opponents pressure and dropped valuable points. Instead, they defended well enough and got that clinching goal late on. There always seems to be one side battling for survival who gain momentum in the final weeks of the season, and it looks very much that it is Nigel Pearson’s men who will be that team this year. A win on Saturday would certainly reinforce that opinion.
Burnley desperately require their star man Danny Ings to return to the goalscoring form that earned him so many plaudits earlier in the season. He has nine league goals to his name but has not found the back of the net since the beginning of February. He will have extra pressure on him this weekend as second top-scorer, Ashley Barnes, is missing through suspension. Leicester have not found goals as hard to come by but last weekend’s clean sheet was only the second time they have shutout the opposition in 11 games. Although they have won a couple of games without conceding, common sense tells you that it is much harder to win games when you cannot keep the other team out at the other end.
Turf Moor will be an extremely tense place come 3pm on Saturday. I don’t think it is an exaggeration to suggest that this match is a must-not-lose one for the home side. Should they be defeated it would leave them five points behind Leicester having played one game more. Because of that, I expect the home team to go all out for the win here which could make for an exciting and end-to-end game. Leicester have always tried to take the game to their opponents so I see no reason why they will do anything different here. Nine of the Foxes last 10 away games have seen both teams scoring and despite Burnley struggling in front of goal of late, they have scored in eight of their nine home games against bottom 10 teams this season, and the circumstances surrounding this match makes me confident they can do so again.
Both teams to score 5/6 @ Skybet
