CARDIFF v WEST HAM – Pick: Under 2.5 – 03 May 2012

Bluebirds and Hammers to play it cool

Championship Tips

Championship Play-Off Semi Final 1st Leg

Thursday 3rd May 2012 – Kickoff:  1945hrs

The stakes are high in this the first of the Championship Semi Final play-offs when Cardiff City host visitors West Ham in their 1st leg showdown at the Cardiff City Stadium on Thursday night.

Cardiff City go into this match having been unbeaten in their last ten matches preceding this one, but in the back of their minds will be the fact that they’ve narrowly missed promotion via the play-off system on a few occasions now. This unbeaten run will also be in vain if they miss out again, so manager Malky Mackay will be keen for his side to contain West Ham with a view to hitting them on the break or from a set-piece.

Cardiff’s home record in the regular season finished up at  11-7-5  37/29, and they drew five of their last six home matches which could have been their undoing if Middlesbrough had been more consistent  in their run-in.  Recently in March, the Bluebirds lost at home to West Ham 0-2, so they will be out to prevent a similar scoreline from happening here tonight, which would effectively finish the tie off at the halfway stage.

Creative midfielder Peter Whittingham (12 goals, 13 assists) is Cardiff’s leading scorer and he has valuable support from striker Kenny Miller (10 goals, 5 assists) and young striker Joe Mason (9 goals) who has been given a run in the starting eleven recently.

West Ham will no doubt be disappointed in missing out on automatic promotion after being pipped to the post by Southampton by just two points. I wonder if they’ve been having recurring nightmares about the two points they dropped at Bristol City a couple of weeks ago when they could only muster a 1-1 draw?

Anyhow, Sam Allardyce is a shrewd manager and I fancy he’ll opt for a packed midfield in this one with Carlton Cole or Vaz Te up front on their own – not that their midfield doesn’t present any fewer dangers with the likes of skipper Kevin Nolan (11 goals, 5 assists), Mark Noble (8 goals, 9 assists) and Matthew Taylor (9 assists). They also have quality coming off the bench too in the shape of Sam Baldock and Nicky Maynard, but the key danger is from Cole (14 goals) and Vaz Te (10 goals).

It promises to be a cagey old affair with both teams desperate not to concede or give the other an advantage for the second leg, so for this reason, I’ll back the Under 2.5 here with neither side willing to take too many risks in the first encounter. Maybe a 1-1 draw.

Main Pick:  Under 2.5 @ 1.78 Pinnacle

Value Pick:  Draw @ 3.30 Bet Victor