Now at the beginning of August, The European Championships are but a distant memory for most of us (unless your Portuguese then you’ll still be celebrating) and the domestic campaign is fast approaching. Every summer it seems that the close season gets shorter and shorter and that’s probably because it is. With the expansion of the International Champions Cup – particularly the matches between teams from the same country – and the ridiculously early start of European qualification, we forever seem to get our fix of seeing the best British football has to offer. As is tradition, the Football League (now known as the English Football League) is off and running one week before the Premier League swings back into action and the next couple of previews will look at the clubs who I feel will be challenging for promotion and those battling to stay in the Championship.
Relegated Teams from Premier League
Aston Villa, Newcastle United and Norwich City
Promoted Teams from League One
Wigan Athletic, Burton Albion and Barnsley
Promoted to the Premier League
Burnley, Middlesbrough and Hull City
The Battle for Promotion
Every year I do this preview I make a point of noting how difficult achieving promotion from this division is. This season is absolutely no different and, if anything, it’s as high a quality league as there has been for a long time. Taking into account the fact that Newcastle and Aston Villa have been demoted to this level (two of English football’s biggest clubs) and the continued presence of Derby County and Brighton – two clubs who have challenged consistently over the years – there are four clubs who obviously feature at the top of the market for automatic promotion. Norwich City are also specialists at getting out of this division whilst Wolves, recently taken over by a consortium led by super agent Jorge Mendes, have also seen themselves mentioned as a viable candidates to reach the Premier League. Confused already? Hopefully the preview will see us land on a winner like last season when selecting Hull to be promoted.
There’s no point in starting anywhere else other than Newcastle United. Despite spending tens of millions on their squad last season, the Toon Army find themselves back in the Championship for the first time since 2009/10 when they romped to the title. Their supporters will be hoping that’s the case again, sorry – they expect that to be the case again. With Rafa Benitez committing his future to the club despite relegation, the biggest part of the jigsaw is in place and with the squad of players he has at his disposal then it is no surprise to see them at such skinny odds. There will be certain surprises along the way, as there always is in this league, but an awful lot would have to go wrong for the Toon not to be playing in the Premier League in 12 months time. The signings of Grant Hanley, Dwight Gayle and Matt Ritchie have only added to the depth of quality, especially at this level. There is still likely to be some departures for big money before the end of the transfer window, but they essentially have the best squad, a Champions League quality manager and the finances to strengthen as they wish – it would be a massive shock, not to mention failure, should Newcastle not be in the top two at the very least.
Aston Villa are another massive club who will probably feel they should not be playing at this level. If football was based solely on tradition and the size of your support then that would be a pretty valid argument, but unfortunately for Villa, it’s not. Truth be told, relegation from the top flight has been on the cards for a number of seasons now such is the way the club have been mis-managed. There is only so long a lack of investment and ambition can happen before it takes hold of performances on the itch and they have been steadily declining over several seasons. A number of managers have overseen the demise and it’s now the turn of Roberto Di Matteo to try and galvanise the squad and bring some success back to a club that has enjoyed its fair share of it down the years. Last season was desperately disappointing and the new owners have sought to lift the mood at Villa Park by spending some money – something that the previous regime was very reluctant to do. Ross McCormack has grabbed the headlines recently with his £12m move from Fulham, but it may be a player who was already there that proves to be their talisman. Jack Grealish has not had his controversies to seek but he has undoubted ability and playing at a lower level – away from some of the attention the Premier League attracts – may well allow him to focus solely on the football. I still feel there is some way to go for Di Matteo and this squad before they can challenge for automatic promotion, though.
Norwich know what it takes to win promotion from this league having done so in 2011 and again in 2015 – bouncing straight back from relegation the previous term. The man who eventually seen them over the line last time was Alex Neil and despite his best efforts last season, he is once again tasked with getting back to the top flight. The Scotsman would have been annoyed to miss out on his countrymen McCormack as his search for a striker goes on. The Canaries do possess the majority of their squad from last season, however, which contains a lot of quality, yet also has a plethora of experience of playing at this level – and being successful. The ingredients are certainly there for another successful campaign, and providing the manager is able to recruit a striker between now and the close of the transfer window, you expect Norwich to be in and around the top six throughout.
Brighton not only missed out on automatic promotion on the final day of the regular season, they suffered further heartbreak by going out at the semi-final stage of the playoffs against Sheffield Wednesday. The emotional turmoil the players went through can often act as a motivation for the next campaign, but it can also work against a team. Chris Houghton has won promotion from this league when his Newcastle team romped the Championship, and whilst that is unlikely to repeat itself for Brighton this term, that experience will again be vital. As you would expect from a team who came so close last season, their squad is full of ability. Beram Kayal has been a revelation since arriving for Celtic and he will be supported in midfield by the shrewd signing of Oliver Norwood from Reading. He’s a player who knows this league inside out and will complement Kayal’s dynamism.
When discussing promotion and the Championship, you cannot ignore Derby County. Everything has been in place for the club to return to the Premier League for a while now, and as we’re now reaching nigh on a decade since they last played there, it’s becoming long overdue. Steve McClaren has come close, Paul Clement failed miserably before failing in the playoffs. Nigel Pearson has been entrusted with the task of finally bridging that gap and getting to the promise land. Again, he’s another manager who knows what it takes to get out this league having won it with Leicester in 2014. There have been virtually no changes to the squad and that’s possibly an indication of how much faith the new man has in the current crop of players. Keeping the spine of the team fit – Richard Keogh, Jeff Hendrick and Chris Martin – will be crucial in my opinion between them challenging from promotion and suffering more heartache. They definitely have the resources to strengthen as and when the manager decides to so the remainder of this window, and January, will be interesting for Derby supporters.
Best of the rest
There are always some surprise packages in this league, the trouble is picking the right one! The momentum that promotion brings with it means one of Burton, Barnsley or Wigan could well be up there challenging whilst a case could be made for Cardiff and Ipswich, probably more so for the playoffs rather than automatic promotion. The recent takeover at Wolves has obviously been met with a reaction from the bookmakers but it’s one that could well be misplaced. Although many new faces are expected between now and the end of August, it will take a fair bit of time for Walter Zenga to mould the team and impart his own philosophy on the club. I would be surprised if they start the season strongly and expect them to be better later on in the campaign. Their promotion chances may well depend on how well some of the other front runners do in the earlier stages.
Betting Tips
It is anything but original but sometimes the best bet is the most obvious bet. Newcastle have a host of Premier League players at their disposal but more importantly, they have the best manager in this league and one of the best in the country. Benitez’ decision to remain surprised me but he’s not willing to remain in this league for any longer than necessary so expect Newcastle to come out the traps flying. I find it difficult to advise a bet in this league at their current odds of 19/10 – and that’s to win the league – but I would be lying if I said I fancy a team more so would not put off anybody backing the Toon to win the league and do it with some ease, too.
The bet for promotion I will advise is Derby to bring an end to their Championship hoodoo and return to the Premier League for the first time since 2008. Pearson will have a point to prove after the way in which he left Leicester and his squad is one of the best in the league – certainly top three. I expect them to strengthen at some point and the 4/1 on offer is very fair. I hope they do not have to require it but the bet also allows for the team to go up via the playoffs.
The only other bet I would advise for promotion – and at a bigger price – is Huddersfield. This may not seem an obvious shout considering the club finished 19th and have never remotely challenged for promotion in the last couple of decades. My main logic for this one is that it will be the first full season in charge for David Wagner who arrived at the Yorkshire club with a big reputation. He has now had time to develop his own way of playing and has also brought in a number of players from European football who will have been scouted thoroughly. Providing they adapt to life in the Championship then Huddersfield could be the surprise package I spoke of earlier.
In summary, I think Derby are very well placed to go up alongside Newcastle whilst Huddersfield can give a better account of themselves than their current odds suggest.
Derby to be promoted 4/1 @ 888sport
Huddersfield to be promoted 12/1 @ Betway
