Having completed a preview of who I feel are the most likely clubs to challenge for promotion from the Championship, and advising bets as appropriate, now it’s time to switch our attention to the other end of the table and identify some of the teams who may well struggle in 2016/17. Charlton Athletic, MK Dons and Bolton Wanderers all fell through the trap door last season and have been replaced by Wigan, Burton Albion and Barnsley. As I alluded to in the promotion preview, this is arguably the strongest Championship in a number of years which means the battle for survival may well involve even more teams than usual – hopefully the following can shed some light on where to put your money.
If, like me, you expect Newcastle to prove a dominant force in this year’s Championship then the likelihood is the rest of the division becomes condensed. That results in all the other places – from the second automatic promotion right through to bottom spot – becoming even more fiercely competitive than normal. We may as well being with the bookmakers favourites to fill one of the relegation spots, and that is Burton. Having achieved back-to-back promotions, their rise to this level has been something of a surprise and the challenge is always how a team of their stature copes with the extra demand the Championship places upon them. Burton finished runners up to Wigan last season, edging out Walsall by a point but they were just a couple of points behind the league winners themselves. To put their finishing points tally into some sort of context, the 84 they accumulated would have seen them finished fourth or below in seven of the last eight seasons. However that’s also the same for Wigan. The key difference between both clubs is their relative size and experience, of course, with Gary Caldwell’s men having played in the Premier League as recently as 2013. Burton will be operating with one of the smallest squads and smallest budgets in the Championship so it’s understandable to see them odds on with some bookmakers for the relegation market. I would be inclined to let that run, though, as there was very little between them and Wigan in League One and when you compare their price to that of the Latics, there is a huge discrepancy. Caldwell has not been able to strengthen his squad as he would have liked so he is virtually working with the same group of players as he was last term. I have my doubts over certain areas of their squad, particularly upfront where they lack a proven goal scorer at this level. That may of course change and they have a much biggest budget than a lot of teams, but I would note my point about last year’s League One being pretty weak and I think Wigan are more likely to be in the bottom half than challenging for promotion.
Two Yorkshire clubs are also high up in the relegation market with doubts over the capability of both Rotherham and Barnsley to survive the test of the Championship. Alan Stubbs has taken charge of the former during the summer but resources are tight at the club and it was basically the nous of Neil Warnock that kept their head above water last season. Stubbs has brought in Scott Allan from Scottish champions Scotland and the midfielder has undoubted talent but he’s something of a luxury so the rest of the team will have to be built around him. Barnsley surprised many by cruising their way through the League One playoffs and returning to this level after a two year hiatus. Paul Heckingbottom took over midway through last season following Lee Johnson’s departure and he has overseen tremendous improvement and consistency in a short space of time. Obviously the step-up will bring with it new challenges but Barnsley have a group of players who are just hitting their prime and they have plenty of attacking threat which I think sets them apart from the other two promoted clubs. They may be somewhat light in defence but I would be surprised if there are not three worse teams in the Championship than Barnsley.
Fulham finished just above Rotherham last season but they were 11 points better off than Charlton who filled the third relegation spot. Since then, the club have said goodbye to Moussa Demble and Ross McCormack who have joined Celtic and Aston Villa respectively. The striking duo combined 36 of the club’s 66 goals which is massive by anybody’s measure. Slavia Jokanovic won promotion with Watford a couple of seasons back and guided the Cottagers to safety in the second half of last season. His squad is at the barebones just now, however, and there will be some serious strengthening needed if they are to avoid a similar season this time around. I fear for where the goals are going to come from and despite having funds from the sale of McCormack, their does not appear much desire to spend that on replacing both he and Dembele so I have Fulham down as a potential struggler.
Owen Coyle has returned to English football management after an unsuccessful spell in the MLS with Houston, assuming charge of Blackburn Rovers. No stranger to managing in the North-West after coaching Burnley, Bolton and Wigan, Coyle is something of an acquired taste so it will be interesting to see how he does at Ewood Park. Their squad is one of the biggest in the league but it is more bloated than packed-full of quality. Jordan Rhodes obviously moved on in the winter transfer window but he was still the club’s top scorer and despite the arrivals of Anthony Stokes and Danny Graham, goals look as though they will be hard to come by again for a team who managed just 46 in 2015/16. Coyle does not convince me as a manager either so the bookmakers have got them about right in the market.
Birmingham and Preston both finished in the top half last season which was a surprise to many and the challenge is whether or not they are able to repeat that feat this campaign. Preston, particularly, relied on a strong defence to get them into that position and in a better quality of league they have to maintain that record but improve their attack, where they averaged less than a goal a game. Another couple of team I expect to be looking over their shoulders are QPR and Leeds. I fully accept the size of both clubs, particularly Leeds, and the expectation amongst their supporters for both. However, QPR have downsized their squad considerably over the last couple of seasons since relegation and look short on quality in both midfield and attack, despite numbers, whilst Leeds are well known for the turmoil that surrounds them. I think Garry Monk is a decent enough appointment as manager but will he get the control he needs to ensure that the environment is right off the park? I’m not convinced he will. Neither club may be troubled by the drop but at their current prices for relegation I think they’re worth a second look.
Relegation Betting Tips
I am going to put up three selections for relegation in order of preference. First up is Blackburn and Owen Coyle. Despite a mid-table finish last season, much of that was due to the goals of Jordan Rhodes who won them a number of points in the first half of the campaign. Now he’s gone, I just don’t know where the goals are going to come from with both Stokes and Graham proving unreliable down the years. The owners fall into that category, too, and I’m predicting a long season for Rovers. I would not be surprised if they get off to a decent start so you may wish to hold off and get a better price but I’ll commit to my opinion from the outset and Blackburn are my biggest bet to be playing League One football in 2017.
My second bet for the drop in this year’s Championship is Fulham – predominantly for the fact they have lost their two best strikers and yet to replace them. I’m aware that they may well rectify that between now and the close of the window, and Jokanovic is always attempting to change their style of play, but at the current price they are worth an investment in my book. There’s been a soft centre at the Cottage for a while now and in a more competitive league than last season – when they finished fourth bottom – Fulham are my second bet for relegation.
Finally, and this is certainly more speculative than the others, is QPR. They have a big squad, they have plenty of experience in that squad and they have a young manager who has proven he can achieve success with limited resources. Despite that, there is something very unappealing about their attacking options. Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink has his work cut out for me, and the odds of 14/1 are simply too big to ignore, especially as they are as short as 7/1 in one place to be relegated.
To be relegated:
Blackburn 4/1 @ Paddypower
Fulham 9/1 @ 10bet
QPR 14/1 @ 10bet
