CSKA v PSV Betting Tip Over 2.5 goals, 2015-09-30

An open encounter looks likely in Russia.

Champions League Tips

CSKA Moscow v PSV
Wednesday 30th September – Kickoff: 1945hrs
Football – Europe – Champions League

Having finished second to Zenit in the Russian Premier League last season, CSKA Moscow had to contend with the qualifiers to make it to the group stage. They navigated past Sparta Prague by the odd goal in nine on aggregate, before an impressive 4-3 two-legged success over Sporting Lisbon. The actual group stage never got off to a great start, however, losing 1-0 away to Wolfsburg. They were second-best on the night but as they are currently top of their domestic league – and remain unbeaten at home – they will be hopeful of turning in a more positive performance and hopefully, for them, their first points in this season’s competition.

This is PSV’s first season playing in the group stage of the Champions League since 2008 when they managed just one victory and finished bottom of their section. Having defeated Manchester United on match day one a fortnight ago, they have already matched that performance. It was an impressive performance from Phillip Cocu’s men, particularly as they recovered from a goal down to take the victory. Domestically they are four points off the pace, and face the current league leaders – and their biggest rivals – Ajax in Amsterdam on Sunday. A positive result in Moscow on Wednesday would be the perfect tonic ahead of that clash.

CSKA’s record in the group stages of this competition is not great by any stretch of the imagination. The defeat to Wolfsburg was their ninth defeat in their last 13 group stage fixtures, managing just two victories in that time. One of those wins was a very surprising 2-1 success away to Manchester City, whilst their last home win came back in October 2013 against Viktoria Plezen. If the are to have a chance of progressing to the knockout stage you would expect avoiding defeat against the Dutch Champions is the minimum they can afford considering the results in the first round of fixtures in this group.

Losing Memphis Depay and Georginio Wijnaldum to the Premier League was always going to make this season harder as both starred in their Eredivisie title win last term. That appears to be the case as they trail Ajax by four points in the league, but the performance over United illustrated that they are still a team full of quality, and Dutch internationalist Luciano Narsingh appears to be the next in line to take the role as their talisman. The winger has been in the shadow of the likes of Depay in recent seasons but he got the upper hand on his former team-mate a fortnight ago when scoring the winner against United.

CSKA Moscow v PSV Betting Tips

This will only be the third meeting between these two having faced each other in the 2007/08 Champions League. PSV done the double over CSKA back then and if they could record a third successive win it would put them in a very strong position before the double-header against Wolfsburg. On the flip-side, the hosts will be wary that they face back-to-back fixtures against United after this so the importance of a win will not be lost upon them.

Although CSKA have struggled to make an impact at this level, consistently, they are usually very reliable for entertainment, especially at home. Their last 16 home games in the Champions League have seen 49 goals scored, an average of over three per game. Their domestic record this season tells a similar story as well as their 10 games have seen 29 goals.

The 2-1 success over Manchester United was the eighth time a PSV game in the Champions League have seen three or more goals scored. For a team who always like to get forward, it rarely make a difference whether they are playing home or away. That is evidenced by the fact that they have scored the most goals away from home in the Dutch league with 10 from their first four games, continuing where they left off last season when recording a final tally of 42 goals on the road – nine more than the second-highest scorers.

Neither of these teams are strong defensively and an early goal really could see this game open up. The home side will not wish to drop any further behind PSV but a draw would also mean they have plenty of work to do if they are to finish in the top two. That should see them playing on the front foot which will also be of benefit to PSV who have plenty of pace and craft on the counter. I’m not sure I agree with the bookmakers having CSKA as strong favourites as their opponents will be a major threat. Rather than focus on the outcome of the game, I prefer siding with goals and backing at least three of them in a match which promises to be very entertaining.

Over 2.5 goals 17/20 @ Betvictor