Derby v Brentford Betting Tip Over 2.5 goals – Saturday 11 April

Championship Tips

It was a long time coming but Derby finally won a game! After going seven games without a win, the Rams defeated Wigan to remain unbeaten after the Easter weekend. Automatic promotion may still be beyond them as they sit fifth and are five points behind second placed Norwich with only five games left. They will obviously try to give themselves every chance of finishing in the top two but it may not be the worst thing for them in the world if they are able to build ahead of what is also a hugely draining and emotional part of the season – the play-offs. Derby know better than most the heartache that they can cause having lost in the final to QPR last season. They would have been hoping to avoid that scenario this time around but it looks like they could be heading back there again.

It’s pretty unusual for a a manager to be in charge of a club going for promotion in the knowledge that no matter the outcome, he will not be leading the team next season. That’s the case at Brentford. Mark Warburton has been told that his services will no longer needed when this campaign comes to a close as the board look to take the club in a different direction. It’s a startling decision considering Warburton led the Bees to automatic promotion last season and to within a point of the top six with a few games left. He has had huge support from his players and the club’s supporters since the news come out, and no matter how the season ends, he can leave very proud of what he has achieved in his time at the club.

Having previewed Derby’s match against Watford on Good Friday, I made note of how important Chris Martin was to their success. His value to the team was there for all to see in their win over Wigan as he came off the bench at half time to score the opening goal within six minutes of his second game back. It was his 17th league goal of the season and one which cannot be underestimated. They have played a lot of good football in his absence, and while Darren Bent has made an excellent contribution since coming in in loan, they have lacked a real focal point and physical threat up top. If Martin can remain fit for the rest of Derby’s season then they stand a much better chance of promotion.

Brentford look set to duel it out with the side that finished above them in League One last season for a spot in the play-offs. They are one point behind Wolves (and Derby) which is another indication of how far they have improved this season as they were nine points adrift of the same club in the previous campaign. They might well have been further behind had they not shown great resilience and determination to comeback from two goals down at home to Nottingham Forest to rescue a point last time out. It was a match that epitomised their attitude, particularly in recent weeks.

If you are looking for goals and entertainment then look no further than this match. As with the majority of clubs in the top eight, these two love to attack their opponents and play in a very positive manner. That also means that they concede plenty as well as well, evidenced by the fact that games involving Derby average 2.88 goals whilst Brentford average 3.05. Derby’s average is even higher at home (3.15). Eight out of Brentford’s last 10 have seen at least three goals scored, and seven have had at least four. With so much at stake and so few games left, I see no reason why this weekend’s game should be any different. I wouldn’t put anybody off backing over 3.5 goals but I will be somewhat cautious and back at least three.

Over 2.5 goals @ 3/4 @ Ladbrokes