Switzerland V Wales
Tuesday, 12th October – 19:30 GMT (Sky Sports HD2)
EURO 2012 Qualifier: Group G
You get the impression that the Swiss are still nursing a World Cup hangover, where they stunned everyone with the scalp of Spain but still failed to progress past the group, and have made a worrying start to their EURO 2012 Qualifying campaign. The Welsh, well, there haven’t been any surpriss with them unfortunately, with their tag of being the weakest national team in Britain confirmed with a dismal start to proceedings.
Much of the focus, though, will fall on Swiss laps, the second seeds in this group and the favourites to push England all the way for a top spot finish. Two games in and we’re already beginning to discount Switzerland’s chances following back-to-back defeats against England in Basel and Montenegro in Podgorica leaving Ottmar Hitzfeld’s side rooted to the bottom of Group G with an inferior goal different to that of Wales who also have zero points thus far.
I think there’s no arguing that Tuesday’s meeting between Switzerland & Wales is a do or die contest for both teams, the Swiss especially as they can ill afford to throw away what is shaping up as their easiest fixture of the group at home to Wales. And the odds on both sides would confirm this, with Switzerland hot favourites at 1.50 (Boylesports) while Wales are clear underdogs at 8.00 (WilliamHill).
The problem so far for both nations has been a lack of goals. Between them they’ve managed just one goal in four games, Shaqiri with a thunderbolt effort against England. The Welsh failed in their attempts to find a way past both Montenegro and Bulgaria, while the Swiss also came up short against the Montenegrins.
However, the Swiss can usually be relied upon for a goal or two when playing back home and that could be the telling factor in this fixture, although Wales did have a respectable scoring record away from home during World Cup Qualifying. In five away encounters, only Germany successfully kept the Welsh at bay in front of goal, although Liechtenstien were the only team which conceded more than once to Wales, with the Dragons scoring exactly one goal in three of their away qualifiers and are available at odds of 2.62 (SkyBet) to manage the same feat in Basel on Tuesday night.
Meanwhile Switzerland have a knack of scoring exactly two goals in home World Cup qualifiers – 3.25 with SkyBet to do the same on Tuesday, doing so on three occasions. Israel were also the only side to have denied the Swiss any goals at home in a qualifier – World Cup & EURO’s – in over six years when drawing 0-0 almost a year ago to the day, although by that time Switzerland had already qualified for South Africa.
With the Welsh struggling for fire-power at current, not helped by injuries to first-choice forwards Robert Earnshaw and Craig Bellamy, and with the Swiss boasting a proven track record when it comes to scoring in their own backward, the outcome of this fixture almost looks inevitable.
The 1.50 available on Switzerland compounding Wales’ problems looks extremely generous despite their slow start to qualifying.
Matt’s Tip: Switzerland to beat Wales – 1.50 Boylesports
Side-Tip: Alexander Frei First Player to Score for Team – 3.60 PaddyPower
The former Borussia Dortmund now turned FC Basel striker won’t just be playing in familiar surroundings on Tuesday night in Basel but he also has a prolific record for his country. The 31 year-old has turned out 77 times for his country and has scored 44 goals altogether, with five of those coming during 2010 World Cup Qualifying, and four of those were Switzerland’s first goal of the game.
