Everton V Liverpool – Preview & Tips – 28 October 2012

Inform Merseyside duo to play out entertaining derby

Luis Suarez
Luis Suarez © GEPA pictures

Everton V Liverpool

Sunday, 28 October 2012 – Kick-Off: 13:30 GMT

Live on Sky Sports HD2

 

Preview

A Merseyside Derby with a difference? That’s because Everton find themselves in the unfamiliar position of being above their local rivals in the league table – a whole six-points clear in fact – heading into Sunday’s so called ‘Friendly Derby’ at Goodison Park. So will there be a gulf between the two sides, as the league table would suggest, or will the Reds maintain their impressive recent record in this fixture?

They tend to say form goes straight out the window when neighbouring clubs clash on a football pitch, but even if that was the case we would be no better off to correctly predicting the outcome of what is normally a fiery encounter between these two teams.

No fixture in the history of the Premier League has produced more red cards than this one, between the Blue and Red of Merseyside, with Jack Rodwell’s dismissal in last season’s Goodison Park affair the twentieth to date. Meanwhile, Liverpool have tasted defeat on just the one occasion in the previous eleven league meetings, claiming victory seven times. Last season saw them claim the spoils in both league encounters – 3-0 at Anfield and 2-0 at Goodison – yet it was their 2-1 triumph in the semi-final of the FA Cup at Wembley which brought more satisfaction to the Red faction, with Luis Suarez on target at both Goodison and Wembley.

Nonetheless it is now no defeat in five (W2 D3) for the home side, Everton, in the league following last week’s pleasing 1-1 draw away at QPR. The Toffees were never really at the races that day, so the point was considered a decent return under the circumstances. At the very worst it kept them above Tottenham in fourth, and within striking distance of the two Manchester clubs, with David Moyes’ men currently enjoying their most consistent start to a season – having taken 15 points from a possible 24 – since registering 16 points at this same stage of the 2004-05 term, when the club last finished in the dizzy heights of the top-four.

The form of Phil Jagielka in the heart of the Everton back-four has been instrumental in the team’s strong start, as has the attacking displays from Leighton Baines, Steven Pienaar, Marouane Fellani, Kevin Miralles and Nikica Jelavic – which makes the loss of two of the aforementioned star performers monumental for manager David Moyes, who is without the suspended Pienaar and may also be shorn of the unique bustling services that Fellani offers.

Combating the impressive early displays from Baines & Company, however, will be a Liverpool side who, for the first time this season, appear to be in good knick. The Reds endured a miserable start to the campaign, failing to win any of their opening five league fixtures, but have now embarked on a run of three games unbeaten which includes routine wins over Norwich (2-5) and Reading (1-0) either side of a goalless home draw with Stoke.

Then, on Thursday night, at home to Russian league leaders Anzhi in the Europa League, Stewart Downing’s stunning strike ensured Liverpool warmed up for Sunday with their second successive 1-0 victory. Granted it was another unspectacular triumph, with goals still hard to come by, but the performance in general was very encouraging – although you would expect nothing less from what was a surprisingly strong starting-XI named by Brendan Rodgers; Martin Skrtel, Daniel Agger, Andre Wisdom, Luis Suarez and Steven Gerrard were among the big names to play the full 90 minutes, while Raheem Sterling and Joe Allen featured as second-half substitutes.

While it wasn’t necessarily a testing encounter, you do have to wonder just how much energy Thursday’s European outing has absorbed from the legs of Liverpool’s integral performers. Those whose displays at Goodison are imperative to the team recording a positive result on Sunday. Steven Gerrard in particular, the Reds skipper who is no longer a spring chicken, certainly not after the amount of injuries he has had in recent times. It matters not now though, as there is no chance of Gerrard not featuring from the off here. Although Jonjo Shelvey is in contention after serving his three-match suspension. Pepe Reina, on the other hand, remains a doubt.

Despite the team still struggling for goals, with Liverpool plundering five goals fewer than their opponents, Luis Suarez has been in superb form all season and is unsurprisingly, considering the amount of chances that fall his way, the club’s leading marksmen with five league goals for the term. That is one more than Everton goal-getter Nikica Jelavic, and the goalscoring exploits of both could be key here in determining which half of Merseyside lays claim to bragging rights until the Anfield renewal in May next year.

 

Match Pointers

  • Having accrued 15 points from their opening nine league matches, this is Everton’s second-strongest start to a Premier League campaign with the Toffees currently occupying fourth position – the final Champions League berth.
  • Everton have only been beaten once in their last 17 games at Goodison Park in all competitions, while in the Premier League they are currently unbeaten in six having claimed victory in five of those – including a hard-fought 1-0 triumph over Man Utd at the very beginning of this season.
  • Just two wins from their first eight league matches (W2 D3 L3) means Liverpool reside in lowly 12th ahead of this fixture, although they are now unbeaten in their last three following victories over Reading (1-0) and Norwich (2-5) either side of a goalless home draw with Stoke.
  • Liverpool have tasted defeated on just one occasion in the previous eleven Merseyside derbies (W7 D3 L1), completing the league double over their local rivals last season without so much as conceding a goal. They were 3-0 victors at Anfield and 2-0 winners at Goodison.
  • This fixture has produced more red cards than any other in Premier League history, with Jack Rodwell’s dismissal in last season’s Goodison Park encounter taking the tally to 20.

 

Betting

This is one of the toughest Merseyside derbies to call that I can remember. Liverpool’s recent record in this fixture is so impressive that it merits a tonne of respect, but so does Everton’s early-season form.

The Blues have been tremendous thus far, with only a few blips in terms of off-colour performances. Neither of those occurred at Goodison, mind, where David Moyes’ side have been beaten just once in seventeen games in all competitions and will, in my opinion, take all the beating on Sunday. A lot, however, will depend on Fellani’s fitness; the Belgian has been a thorn in every defence he has gone up against so far, including that of Manchester United in which he headed home the winner.

My main concern with Liverpool is their apparent lack of goals. Creating chances certainly isn’t the problem, but they have a huge one when it comes to converting them. Luis Suarez doesn’t play as an out-an-out forward, which suits him perfectly, but that means fewer bodies in the box and therefore less threat in front of goal which inevitably leads to fewer goals. So until the midfield pluck up the courage and get forward a whole lot more, it is difficult to back the Reds in such a tough fixture. They are, however, beginning to score more regularly, but not in the quantities you would like.

It’s hard not to sit on the fence with this one and back a draw, as there are enough ifs and buts to have concerns over both sides’ claims. I am, however, perhaps part of the small minority who seem to think this contest could surprise a few with regards to entertainment. Both teams will recognise the importance of this fixture: victory would be massive for either side, but for Everton it would consolidate their position inside the top-four while for Liverpool it would maintain their winning momentum, having won twice in the past week, and see them potentially climb into the top half of the league. Neither will be contemplating defeat.

Furthermore, tired legs could be a significant factor late on for the visitors meaning Brendan Rodgers will demand an energetic opening from his Liverpool charges. An early goal, from either side, and this game will explode into life. It normally takes a no-holds-barred challenge to do so, but a goal will certainly suffice in this respect.

 

Tips

Draw @ 23/10 (BetVictor)

Both Teams to Score @ 7/10 (BetVictor)

Liverpool/Draw (HT/FT Betting) @ 14/1 (Bet365)