Fiorentina V Lecce
Kick-off: Sunday, 23rd January – 14:00 (GMT)
A mismatch on paper sees Lecce make the trek to Florence to tackle a Fiorentina side whom while they have struggled to deliver on their targets so far this season, are formidably strong on home soil and will take all the beating on Sunday afternoon.
You only need to take a quick look at their respective odds to see something isn’t right, as these two teams are only separated by five points in the Serie A table. However, five points is massive when you consider that there is clear daylight – six positions – between the two before the start of play, and that would extend further with a home win.
On paper, you’d be hard-pressed to lean towards anything other than a Fiorentina victory. Viola have been immense inside their Artmeio Franchi stadium all season long and will entertain a visiting Lecce side on the back of five successive home wins. Only Lazio and Palermo have beaten Viola in Florence this season, their last home defeat coming way back on 17th October. Furthermore, the Tuscan outfit have yet to taste defeat in 2011 and the bookies are of the strong opinion that Sunday won’t leave a bad taste in the mouth of Fiorentina coach Sinisa Mihajlovic, a largely inexperienced manager but a man who has spent virtually all of his career in and around Serie A football.
Meanwhile Lecce are a team still well accustomed to life inside the relegation zone, though victory over Viola on Sunday would see them hop straight onto dry land provided Cesena don’t win elsewhere. And that could prove a very tasty little incentive for the Giallorossi, the fact a win in Florence would earn them a spell on dry land, which would make for a change of scenery.
However, Lecce arrive in Florence posting the second poorest away record in Serie A, their four points amassed from a possible 20 nothing short of abysmal. It doesn’t stop at just a poor away record unfortunately. The Giallorossi also post the joint-lowest scoring tally when it comes to locating the back of their host’s net, having scored just six times away from home, failing to score in 70% (7/10) of their away matches this season.
But, like their match day rivals, Lecce have made an encouraging start to the new year following quite sublime results over the two pacesetters come the end of 2010, the Giallorossi stunning everyone by beating then second-placed Lazio 2-1 over in Roma before proving that result wasn’t just a flash in the pan by earning a hard-fought draw with AC Milan a week ago.
Also, neither were involved in the Coppa Italia during the week, the pair eliminated in the earlier rounds.
Betting Tip: LAY of Fiorentina @ 1.52 Betfair
As mentioned in my preview, it’s difficult to oppose what’s right in front of your very eyes. Fiorentina have been very consistent in front of their own fans, also extremely reliable for the punters, whereas Lecce have been torrid for the large part of the season on their travels. However, as well as Fiorentina’s ugly price not sitting right with me, there are a number of factors which perhaps suggest the hosts aren’t quite the formality the form book would like to make out.
Di Canio, the Lecce coach, expressed his delight at the improvement he has seen from his players in the early part of the new year and claims his team will only get stronger hereafter. We couldn’t agree more. Their sensational win over Lazio in their most recent away encounter came completely out of the blue, a priceless away win which stopped a losing away sequence of six matches well and truly in its tracks. The Giallorossi then went and built on that morale boosting result by holding league leaders AC Milan to a 1-1 draw at home last weekend, Di Canio’s men showing some real passion and hunger to draw level near the death.
If Lecce’s 2-1 victory away at Lazio a fortnight ago wasn’t an eye-opener for punters – Lazio were priced up at similar odds to that of Fiorentina, then more fool you as at those odds, you’re playing with fire. Granted Viola are enjoying a five-match winning streak at home but this so called ‘impressive’ run has centered around easy fixtures – Bari (2-1), Chievo (1-0), Cesena (1-0), Cagliari (1-0) & Brescia (3-2) – and, as you can patently see, all their wins were by the slimmest of margins. They haven’t been convincing in the slightest. A lot of luck has come their way and you have to question just how long it is before their luck runs out and the underdog finally does leave the Artemio Franchi with what they deserve, which is basically at least a share of the spoils.
The visitors, Lecce, while their general record on the road is worryingly poor, they are nonetheless a team full of confidence following two outstanding results against Lazio and AC Milan in recent weeks. In buoyant mood, and in the knowledge that Viola have squeezed past each of their last five opponents at home, won’t see themselves as forlorn hopes. The fact a win for them would ease their relegation worries considerable is also another significant positive when it comes to backing Lecce to frustrate a Viola team who have been frustrating their supporters all season, their faithful expecting a challenge for the European places and now a scrap for survival, and there are by no means out of that wood just yet either.
It won’t cost you an arm and a leg to get involved in this bet anyhow, so definite value in my opinion.
Other Selections
Both Teams to Score @ 2.00 WilliamHill
After finding the back of the net against both Lazio (2) and AC Milan in the last fortnight, Lecce will certainly fancy their chances of scoring in their third successive Serie A encounter despite failing to score in seven of their ten away fixtures this season. However that latter statistic can be cancelled out by the fact five of Fiorentina home matches have seen both teams locate the back of one another’s goal.
Lecce to WIN @ 8.00 VictorChandler
It would be a spectacular set of back-to-back away wins, victory in Florence over Fiorentina would be their second in succession following their 2-1 win over Lazio in Rome a fortnight ago. Confidence is a magical trait at times and at this moment in time, Lecce have an abundance of the stuff.
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Fiorentina
Last 5 Matches
Serie A: Napoli 0-0 Fiorentina
Serie A: Fiorentina 3-2 Brescia
Serie A: Bologna 1-1 Fiorentina
Coppa Italia: Parma 2-1 Fiorentina
Serie A: Udinese 2-1 Fiorentina
Last 5 Matches at Home (Serie A ONLY)
Fiorentina 3-2 Brescia
Fiorentina 1-0 Cagliari
Fiorentina 1-0 Cesena
Fiorentina 1-0 Chievo Verona
Fiorentina 2-1 Bari
2010/2011 Serie A Statistics
League Position: 11th
Win-Draw-Lose: 6-6-7 (Home: 6-1-2)
Goal Difference: 20-20 (Home 13-8)
Top Scorer: Alberto Gilardino (6)
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Lecce
Last 5 Matches
Serie A: Lecce 1-1 AC Milan
Serie A: Lazio 1-2 Lecce
Serie A: Lecce 0-1 Bari
Serie A: Napoli 1-0 Lecce
Serie A: Lecce 3-2 Chievo Verona
Last 5 Away Matches
Lazio 1-2 Lecce
Napoli 1-0 Lecce
Cagliari 3-2 Lecce
Udinese 4-0 Lecce
Bologna 2-0 Lecce
2010/2011 Serie A Statistics
League Position: 18th
Win-Draw-Lose: 5-4-11 (Away: 1-1-8)
Goal Difference: 19-37 (Away: 6-24)
Top Scorer: David Di Michele (4)
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Pointers
Fiorentina
– Fiorentina have won each of their last five Serie A fixtures at the Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence, all by a one-goal margin of victory.
– In 2011, after three Serie A matches and no cup commitments left, Sinisa Mihajlovic’s team remain unbeaten – W1 D2 L0.
– No visiting team in Serie A this season has stopped Viola from scoring in Florence.
– A little over half (5/8) of Fiorentina’s home games in Serie A this term have featured both sides scoring.
Lecce
– The Giallorossi have the second poorest away record in Serie A, with only Catania having registered fewer away points this season than the four Lecce have to their name: W1 D1 L8.
– No team has scored fewer away goals in the league than Lecce, although it is an unwanted record with three other sides (Bari, Brescia & Catania – the former two are relegation occupants).
– Luigi De Canio’s charges have shipped a disconcerting 37 goals in 20 matches, the worst defensive record in Serie A by seven goals.
– Are unbeaten in their last two Serie A games, both very impressive results as well; Lazio 1-2 Lecce & Lecce 1-1 AC Milan.
