Sunday 24th April 2016 Kickoff 1615hrs
Leicester City v Swansea City
Football – Premier League – England
There are now only four games left of this season and from the biggest story in Premier League history. Leicester City have been at the top of the table for a long time now but with Tottenham breathing down their necks in second, the pressure will only intensify over the next month. Swansea City have nothing else to play for this term but that could just be the type of dangerous opponent that could yet derail the Foxes title charge.
As I have mentioned numerous times before when previewing a Leicester game this season, I could not have been more wrong about them in my 2015/16 preview. Having tipped them for relegation, I am quite happy to admit that I am delighted to be losing money on this one. Odds of 5000/1 were a realistic interpretation of their chances, in my view, especially with Claudio Ranieri and his recent managerial exploits. However, from the outset the Leicester players and their manager have proved everybody wrong and played with a real sense of freedom throughout the season. With a five point lead over Spurs, they remain big favourites to go on and clinch the title despite dropping their first points in six games. After taking the lead through another Jamie Vardy goal, it was the striker’s next main involvement that caused the controversy last week. Referee John Moss took the view that Vardy dived in the second half earning him a second yellow card. West Ham took full advantage and held a 2-1 lead before another debatable decision from the referee when awarding Leicester a penalty allowed Leonardo Ulloa to equalise. How important that point will prove to be remains to be seen but it could prove massive.
It was looking pretty bleak for Swansea earlier in the season as they were lurking in and around the bottom three of the Premier League. Garry Monk was relieved of his duties at the start of December as a result and eventually replaced by former Udinese head coach Francesco Guidolin who arrived January. He has overseen an excellent recovery for the Swans which has seen them steer well clear of the threat of relegation. With the mythical 40 point mark already achieved, Swansea know they will be playing Premier League football again next season and there was an indication in last week’s 3-0 defeat away to Newcastle that some of the intensity has went out their game. In their defence, however, it was only the second defeat in their last eight games and the Welsh club have defeated Arsenal away and Chelsea at home during that run. It’s certainly not the easiest of run-in’s, though, as their last four games are against teams in the top seven, which was always a concern when they were going through their bad run earlier in the campaign. Those days are well behind them now, of course, and the whole club can enjoy playing out these final games before looking to strengthen once again over the summer.
With Vardy suspended for at least this game, pending a further charge, it is another issue that Leicester have to deal with on top of what is already a vast amount of pressure. With 22 league goals to his name, there’s no doubt that he will be a miss but the beauty of Leicester’s rise to the top has been their team ethic and that will be unchanged on Sunday. Whether Ranieri decides to go with two up top or revert to a more reserved 4-5-1 is another matter, but there will be threats all over the park whether it be the magical talent of Riyad Mahrez or the dangers they posses at set-pieces. Considering their excellent defensive record (kept seven clean sheets in their last nine league games at home) it may just be one goal that proves decisive and clinches a hugely significant three points.
Last week’s defeat to Newcastle extended Swansea’s winless away run to three games and means they have managed only one victory on the road which came at the Emirates. It’s a brief summary of their season to date, actually, as they have struggled produce against teams they are expected to take points against – especially on the road. Only the bottom four clubs have accumulated more points on their travels than Swansea which will be an area the Guidolin will surely be looking to address ahead of the new season – an improvement to their form on the road would see them be a top half side if they can continue their excellent home performances.
Leicester City v Swansea City Betting Tips
It’s bound to be tense at times on Sunday as this has the makings of being a very tight contest. Neither team are known for leaking goals and with Vardy’s suspension, it is bound to have an effect on the home team’s approach to the game. I expect Ranieri to base his tactics around what has been an excellent defence in the second half of the campaign, similar to their wins over Southampton and Newcastle at home recently. Swansea are also unlikely to force the issue and despite seven of their last eight away games resulting in both teams scoring, the majority of those have been against teams who like to play on the front foot – we know Leicester are at their best when playing on the counter attack.
If this was Tottenham, or even a Man City or Arsenal, playing at home to a Swansea side with nothing to play for then you would expect them to be a very prohibitive price, even if they were missing their top goalscorer. However, as has been the case throughout the season, the bookmakers have given punters plenty of value if they want to side with the league leaders and it’s difficult to pass it up on this occasion. I do not expect them to runaway with the game but they still possess enough quality to beat this Swansea team, and can record their sixth victory in eight home games. For those seeking a bit of extra value then it may pay to back them to win without conceding which is a best priced 9/5 available with Paddy Power
Leicester 4/5 @ Betfred
