Liverpool V Manchester City
Wednesday, 25 January 2012 – 19:45 GMT (LIVE on SKY SPORTS 1)
Carling Cup Semi-Final, Second Leg
Tensions are slowly, but surely, rising at Anfield following yet another setback – the latest in a long line. A shock 3-1 reverse away to Bolton on Saturday was Liverpool’s fifth of the term and left them six points adrift of the top-four, even slipping below Newcastle in the table down into seventh place. They could very well make amends at home to Manchester City on Wednesday, but that seems highly improbable on current form.
Due to a lack of continuity with results, Liverpool may struggle to finish fifth at this rate (a position which rewards Europa League football). There is still a lot of football to be played but the Champions League is gradually fading into the distance, despite the fact their rivals for fourth-place are just as inconsistent as they are. So clinching a record eighth Carling Cup could be their best route back onto the continental stage. You never know, it could even be the catalyst for better.
Should Liverpool secure the Carling Cup, first by grounding out a result on Wednesday against the current outright Premiership leaders (a win or draw will suffice after winning 1-0 at the Etihad Stadium in the first leg), before beating Championship opposition in the final in the form of either Cardiff City of Crystal Palace, then the club will have European football sewn in for next season. Now that would go some way to relieving some of the pressure on the team, because the fear of failure is, in my opinion, swallowing a lot of them whole.
The expectations levels at Anfield are huge, arguably bigger than at any other club in England bar arch rivals Man Utd. The minimum requirement this season is European qualification, even if that means the Europa League. A first trophy in six years would also be nice. Both are daunting objectives for a group with very little big-club experience; Jose Enrique, Charlie Adam, Stewart Downing, Jordan Henderson and Andy Carroll all signed from smaller clubs – harsh, but true – and for most, the pressure has been too much.
The reason I say all this is because Wednesday’s Carling Cup semi-final second leg is massive, monumental even for Liverpool. Most turn their noses up at the League Cup nowadays but for Liverpool it is a chance to banish the monkey from their back, to secure their first silverware since the 2005 FA Cup. This could be the platform for a bright and prosperous future, the one promised by principle owner John W Henry. But do they have it in them to hold their nerve under a barrage of expectancy.
As daft as it may sound, winning the opening leg in Manchester is arguably easier than clinching victory at Anfield. Why? Because nobody expected them to come away from the Etihad Stadium, where the Citizens have won 11 out of 11 in the Premier League so far this season, with a result, especially not a win. The pressure was completely off them, so they could play their football with an element of freedom.
Few foreseen a Reds victory two weeks ago. I was the one exception however, so it could pay to stick with me here – and I am of the belief that Liverpool will struggle to retain their tender advantage.
For starters, going into the deciding second leg knowing you do not have to win to progress is dangerous in itself. Any team would love to be in their position, but it’s a precarious one nonetheless. And they do so in the knowledge that they’ve won only three times at home in their last nine league and cup games, and on the back of their humbling experience at The Reebok. Plus they’re still without Luis Suarez, meaning once again Kenny Dalglish is reliant on a striker in Andy Carroll whose only goal in three months came at home to Oldham in the FA Cup.
Roberto Mancini is still shorn of a number of influential figures but has a whole 90 minutes in which to eradicate Liverpool’s slender lead. He’ll also demand that his team make a bright and snappy start to proceedings as well, so that they’re in the ascendency early on, as to try and capitalise on what I suspect could be more than the odd nerve in the home camp.
City dominated the early exchanges in the corresponding fixture, on November 27 in the league, and the City chief will demand something similar on Wednesday. You’ll fancy a repeat as well, as the squad will be buoyed by their dramatic late win over title rivals Tottenham on Sunday. Plus they’ve a knack of scoring early on; City have scored within the opening 30 minutes in five of their eleven away Premier League games this season, while on eight occasions they’ve at least found their way onto the scoresheet in the first period.
Summary
Two weeks ago I correctly predicted – and I haven’t done that too many times of late – that Liverpool would earn a result at the Eithad Stadium in the first leg of this Carling Cup semi-final with Manchester City. They did just that; Steven Gerrard netting the only goal of what was a ugly affair to watch from the penalty spot. From then on it was backs to the wall, although chances were few an far between from a City perspective.
I’m predicting a role reversal here. The onus is now on Man City, who must carve out openings against a defence which for the most part is dogged, resilient and extremely well-organised. But that wasn’t the case on Saturday, when lowly Bolton struck three times against an abject Liverpool side who probably had one eye on this second leg. After that performance, having seen proof that their defence is capable of capitulating, I am not convinced with Liverpool’s prospects here – which doesn’t sit well on top of all their underachieving exploits at home already this season.
You’d like to think Liverpool will be all fired up for this clash, but on too many occasions they’ve been lacklustre at home especially in the final third. That is unlikely to change with Luis Suarez still out of the side, and with Dalglish unsure as to which of his misfiring forwards he should go with. Andy Carroll has scored just once in three months while Dirk Kuyt still awaits his first goal of the season.
As for City, well they definitely have goals in them, all over the pitch in fact, and that could be decisive as they look to open Liverpool up right from the start. If they do succeed and make this an open contest, you’d fancy them to win this second leg outright ten times out of ten. So the visitors are certainly value for me, at odds of almost 2/1. That is unless Mancini rotates and rests some of his stars after Sunday’s gruelling encounter with Tottenham. Don’t see it myself.
Recommended Bet: Manchester City to WIN MATCH @ 9/5 WilliamHill
Value Bet: Manchester City to be WINNING at Half-Time @ 5/2 StanJames
Match Odds: Liverpool 7/4, Draw 19/10, Man City 9/5 (WilliamHill)
To Qualify: Liverpool 2/5, Man City 2/1 (Bet365)
