Manchester City V Swansea
Saturday, 27 October 2012 – Kick-Off: 17:30 GMT
Live on ESPN
Preview
In this very fixture last season, Manchester City closed out the opening weekend in an authoritative manner, with a stylish 4-0 win, and, in doing so, announced themselves as genuine title contenders. Some nine months later they would be crowned Premier League champions for the very first time, in the most dramatic of fashions, but it was their resounding victory over Swansea, who at the time were a little green competing in their very first Premiership fixture, which truly got the gears in motion.
If the Citizens were racing through the gears this time last year, twelve months on and you could argue that the wheels have almost certainly come off. Wednesday’s horror showing in Amsterdam, losing 3-1 away to Ajax in a crucial Champions League group match, leaves City requiring a minor miracle if they are to qualify for the latter stages of the competition. Heck, at this rate they may not even be playing in Europe after Christmas (they now trail third-placed Ajax by three points firmly in the knowledge that they are still to host Ajax and Real Madrid, let alone make the daunting trek to Borussia Dortmund).
Worrying times indeed for folk at Eastlands, particularly as they’ve not exactly been firing on all cylinders in the league either. Somehow, despite encountering their fair share of adversity along the way, Manchester City have clambered up to third in the table, level on points with their city rivals United but trailing leaders Chelsea by four. Last week saw them come from behind to rescue a result for the fifth time this season, a startling statistic when you consider the season is a mere eight games old, with Bosnian striker Edin Dzeko netting twice from the bench in the closing ten minutes to secure what could turn out to be a pivotal 2-1 victory at West Brom.
That win last weekend maintained City’s winning streak in the league, which now stands at three games, and they’ll be confident of making it four on Saturday, at home to Swansea, despite all that transpired in Amsterdam. However, the spotlight is now well and truly glaring on manager Roberto Mancini following his bizarre decision to revert to three at the back when trailing by just the one goal, which was followed by a killer third Ajax goal within moments of the change. Defender Micah Richards’ comments post-match, that the squad have not spent any time practising with three central defenders, will not reflect at all well on the Italian tinkerman.
To his credit, Mancini did accept the brunt of the blame for the midweek defeat – not that it matters a great deal, with seemingly irreversible damage already self-inflicted. Although a positive riposte is essential if the team are to overcome their current slump, especially this weekend of weekends. That’s because a little less than 24 hours after Mancini and his troops welcome poor-travelling Swansea to the City of Manchester Stadium, for a fixture they are hotly fancied to win, table-topping Chelsea welcome Manchester United to Stamford Bridge for a Super Sunday showdown.
Potentially, then, City can make real inroads on either of the sides above them, or even both should it end all-square in West London. There is your motivation already, not that they need it following the dire nature of their midweek loss. Therefore I get the impression that their performance at the weekend will go one of either ways: they will lash out in fury like a wounded animal by helping themselves to lots of goals, or they’ll trudge to a result as they wallow in self-pity. With so many commanding figures in the dressing room (Mancini, Kompany and Joe Hart especially) I cannot see it being the latter.
So I expect goals from Man City. I’d like to think a fair few, too. Can’t say they’ll not concede some of their own, mind – even though Swansea have drawn blanks on their last two away outings in the league, in 2-0 defeats at Aston Villa and Stoke, Michael Laudrup’s team have plundered two goals or more on five occasions this season, while City, uncharacteristically you might say, have one measly clean sheet to their name (when beating a poor Sunderland side who aren’t the most creative anyway).
David Silva could also return for the host, which would be a massive boost – Mancini, so desperate was he for a result on Wednesday, that he finished the match with all four forwards on the pitch. The potential return of Silva would instil some much needed balance into the team, as well as a huge boost in creativity and all-round attacking input.
As for Swansea, well they have no fresh injury concerns and may well opt for the same eleven that helped them quell a five-match winless run last time out, when beating Wigan 2-1 in Wales. Michu, a midfielder by trade who already has six Premier League goals to his name for the term, started that game up front, in place of the out of form Danny Graham, and is tipped to spearhead the attack again.
Match Pointers
- Three consecutive league victories has helped Man City, who remain one of two teams still to taste defeat (W5 D3 L0), to surge up to third in the table, level on points with Man Utd but still four behind leaders Chelsea.
- Man City have only kept one clean sheet in their eight league games thus far, which was in a 3-0 rout of Sunderland at the City of Manchester Stadium on 6 October.
- A frustrating run of five league matches without a win was brought to an end last week when Swansea edged out Wigan 2-1 at home.
- Swansea cruised to a 5-0 victory in their very first away league game of the season, at QPR, but have since lost back-to-back away matches without scoring, losing 2-0 at both Aston Villa and Stoke.
Betting
The Win-Draw-Win market is a no-no, as while City certainly find themselves at a low point in the season, I cannot envisage them coming unstuck. Swansea’s form has curtailed far too much in the last month or so for them to be considered a serious threat to a home victory in this fixture, although that isn’t to say they don’t posses the personnel – especially from an attacking perspective – to cause the odd scare. Anyway, I feel punting on a couple of scorers may be the way forward in this contest, seeing as it is live and ideally you’d want a bet to deliver value for money throughout the majority of the game if you plan on watching.
Michu in particular could be a thorn in Man City’s side; the Spaniard has been a revelation since joining the Swans in the summer, netting six times with an assortment of strikes (half of those were netted with his head). The 6ft 1in attacking-midfielder-come-striker will be the focal point to Swansea’s attacking intents all afternoon long and, at 5/1 to score at any point in proceedings, could be outstanding value provided he is supported well by the midfield – the wings especially, which is where Swansea have been their most devastating this season.
The Man City selections are somewhat of a minefield. So many forward personnel underperformed during the week that Roberto Mancini is well within his rights to make several high-profile changes here, with Scott Sinclair and David Silva contenders if fit. Meanwhile, Mario Balotelli and Carlos Tevez – substitutes in midweek – also come into the equation seeing as Edein Dzeko and Sergio Aguero played the full 90 minutes.
Quotes of 4/1 on Scott Sinclair seem big, especially with Silva doubtful and Nasri also playing the full quota of minutes in Amsterdam. And there won’t be many more determined to get on the scoresheet in this fixture than Sinclair, a tricky winger by trade as well as a summer transfer from Swansea – not that he holds a grudge against his former employers, but pretty much every player loves to net against their former club. So I’ll take some of the 4/1 on the former Swansea oldboy, along with some of the 11/1 available on Vincent Kompany.
Vincent Kompany was a model of consistency in the City backline last season. He has been anything but so far this term, with his irresponsible actions at West Brom last week resulting in James Milner being dismissed early on. The Belgian has been at the heart of a defence which has received stinging criticism of late, not only for their abysmal performance in Holland but for failing to keep more than a single clean sheet in the league to date. He is, though, a determined individual and you get the impression that it won’t be long before he’s back to being the assured centreback enforcer he once was.
Sure enough, though, Kompany will also be determined to atone for his errors this season with a goal, if possible, that could catapult his team further up the table; he’ll no doubt contest any set-plays City earn, then, with real vigour and intent, and he could take some stopping if the delivery is spot-on.
Tips (All Anytime Goalscorers)
For Man City: Scott Sinclair @ 4/1 (888Sport)
Vincent Kompany @ 11/1 (Ladbrokes)
For Swansea: Michu @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes)
