Manchester City V Liverpool
Wednesday, 11 January 2012 – 19:45 GMT
League Cup Semi-Final, First Leg
I suppose it would be disrespectful to class Wednesday’s League Cup semi-final between Manchester City and Liverpool as a final? But isn’t that what everyone is thinking? No?
You can never rule out anything in football – but Cardiff or Crystal Palace lifting the Carling Cup on February 26, at what will inevitably be a full house inside Wembley, is a long shot. So much so that the Championship pair are double-figure odds to to pull of a shock that would rival, no surpass that even of Birmingham, who last season beat Arsenal 2-1 in the final.
So, as contemptuous as it may sound, this two-legged affair between the current leaders of the Premier League, Man City, and seven-time League Cup winners Liverpool could well be interpreted as a pre-final final. SportingBet go 17/20 on the Citizens adding to last season’s FA Cup with this term’s Carling Cup, while Liverpool are 7/4 with Ladbrokes to end their six-year trophy drought by winning a competition they’ve won more times than any other.
Now it’s just a case of pinpointing a winner over two-legs. The natural edge would go to City, who were handsome 3-0 winners when the two teams clashed at the Etihad Stadium in Manchester a little over a week ago. However, there are a few factors working in Liverpool’s favour.
Firstly, the fact Liverpool have far more experience with two-legged affairs shouldn’t be underestimated, due to their many seasons in Europe. The way the tie is set-up also suits them; playing away from home first is a huge advantage, as they’ll fancy their chances of finishing the task back at a raucous Anfield, something they were famous for doing in the Champions League.
Reds boss Kenny Dalglish is still missing his Jack in the Box, with Luis Suarez still serving his suspension for racially abusing Patrice Evra, but the Liverpool manager’s loss can be compensated by the absence of City’s captain in both legs.
City skipper Vincent Kompany, whom is arguably the most accomplished defender in the Premier League at present, will sit out both legs, after failing in his appeal against the red card dished out to him at the weekend in the 3-2 FA Cup defeat to neighbours United. The Belgian was exceptional in both matches against Liverpool this season, both in the league; he opened the scoring in the 1-1 draw at Anfield, while it was his inspirational defending which helped City shut-out the Reds in Manchester last Tuesday.
Pundit Alan Hansen recently claimed on Match of the Day that Vincent Kompany is without question City’s most influential player and without him they would struggle. I don’t normally care for what the former Liverpool defender has to say, but on this occasion I strongly concur; Kompany is as influential on the pitch with his solid and dependable defending as he is with his verbal presence. As a player he’ll be sorely missed, but even more so as a captain, as a leader.
With Kompany out of the picture, a real window of opportunity has opened for Kenny Dalglish and Liverpool, who were far from disgraced in Manchester a week previous. In fact they created several decent opportunities – more so than City – and enjoyed more of the ball. Perhaps now, with City not only shorn of their indomitable Belgian but also Ivorian duo Kolo and Yaya Toure, the Reds may actually breach Joe Hart’s goal?
I’m expecting a disciplined Liverpool on Wednesday, but they’ll remain a constant threat on the break – as they were last Tuesday in this fixture. They’ll also start the game with talismanic skipper Steven Gerrard, who was introduced from the bench in the aforementioned game. If anyone is capable of exploiting the gaps and inexperience in this Manchester City back-line, it’s Gerrard!
Hosts Man City are a general 10/11 to clinch a first-leg victory. That’s too short for me, even though I would expect a far shorter price considering how they won last week’s encounter with plenty to spare.
The odds on a home win should also tell you everything you need to know, that not only has the loss of several key players for City meant their price has been allowed to drift but also that their exertions at the weekend, in that energy-sapping contest with Manchester United, may come back to haunt them. The latter may even force Roberto Mancini to rotate his squad, something Kenny Dalglish won’t do after ringing the changes in Friday’s 5-1 victory at home to Oldham.
Recommend Bet: Liverpool +0.5 Asian Handicap (Effectively a Reds win or draw) @ 9/10 Bet365
Value Alternative: Liverpool Draw No Bet @ 15/8 VictorChandler
Final Score: 0:1
Match Odds
Man City – 10/11 Bet365
Draw – 5/2 VictorChandler
Liverpool – 16/5 StanJames
To Qualify
Man City – 8/13 Ladbrokes
Liverpool – 13/10 Bet365
