Manchester City v Norwich City
31st October – Kickoff: 1500hrs
Football – England – Premier League
A criticism so often levelled at Manuel Pellegrini and his Manchester City team is their fragility in defence and conceding too many soft goals. There’s no doubt that the Chilean was conscious of that as he set his team up in last weekend’s derby, appearing content to take a point and retain top spot for another week. Although surprising, it could well be a valuable point come the end of the season, particularly if their rivals, United, maintain genuine title challenge. The absence of David Silva and Sergio Aguero would also have been contributing factors. It will likely be a completely different story on Saturday, however, as they look to continue their ruthless form at home.
Reality is beginning to set in for Alex Neil and his Norwich side on their return to the top-flight of English football. Having enjoyed so much success in his short spell in charge, Neil is currently in the midst of his worst run since arriving at the club. The Canaries are without a win in their last five Premier League games, with their last success coming back at the start of September. Norwich also exited the League Cup with an extra-time defeat away to Everton which would have been another dent to their confidence. It would have been naïve to think that a run like this would not have happened at some point, the test was always going to be how both the manager and his players respond to it. The last thing they would want to face whilst going through this, however, is a trip to free-scoring City.
City travel to Seville in midweek for a crucial Champions League game, but due to how tights things are at the top of the Premier League, there is little margin for error against Norwich and three points are a must to keep their lead. Two wins in the space of four days would be perfect heading into their final game before the international break and hopefully, for Pellegrini’s sake, allow some of their injured players to regain full fitness. Until then, however, there is little the manager can do in terms of squad rotation, particularly in the forward positions.
Since beating Sunderland 3-1 away in their first Premier League away game of the season, Norwich have lost two and drawn to on the road. Neil’s team have yet to keep a clean sheet in any of their league games, and only Bournemouth have conceded more goals on their travels than the Canaries. There’s no rest for the under-pressure defence as not only do they take on the leaders this weekend, they are due to face both Arsenal and Chelsea in November. As much as their season will not be decided by games against the top sides, their recent poor run means they can ill-afford to go on a sustained run without picking up another win.
Manchester City v Norwich City Betting Tips
Since West Ham won 2-1 at the Etihad in September, City have scored 18 goals in four home games, winning each of them. It illustrates how dominant they can be when on their game, and for a defence which has been vulnerable like Norwich’s has, it could be a very long afternoon for the visitors. History is also not on their side as the last time they made this trip – two years ago this weekend – they went down 7-0. Unfortunately for Neil and his players, a repeat of that result is not unthinkable considering their hosts have scored five and six in their last two league games.
Manchester City’s ability to run up scores against weaker opposition in the Premier League is no secret which is why bookmakers rarely take chances in the goal markets. Over 2.5 is a mere 1/2. Over 3.5 is a touch more tempting at a shade of odds against but with such a big game coming up in the Champions League, I would not be confident of City going all out for goals if the game is already won.
Preference, instead, is for the home team to put this game to bed early and go for over 1.5 goals. Norwich themselves are capable of getting a goal and emulating West Ham, Bournemouth and Newcastle who have all breached the home defence this season.
Over 1.5 first half goals 5/4 @ Coral
