Manchester City v Tottenham – Pick: Under 2.5 – 10 May 2011

Manchester City host a Tottenham side who are vying for their Champions League qualifying spot when the two sides clash at Eastlands on Tuesday night.

City’s first priority will be to not lose this match as they sit one place above Tottenham with six points in hand, and precenting Spurs from winning this fixture would severely reduce Spurs’ chances of catching them.

However, a win for Mancini’s boys would in turn put pressure on Arsenal above them and reduce the points deficit to just two with two games to play.

Mancini has built on his predecessor’s, Mark Hughes, work and brought in a little of that Italian tempo and solidity at home as their recent results seem to benefit from; City are now unbeaten in their last eight at home, seven of those have been straight wins with just one draw against Fulham 1-1.

Their home record stands at an impressive 11-4-2 30/12, with only Manchester United and ironically Tottenham having lost fewer on home soil. City’s defence has also tightened up a wee bit too with just 12 goals conceded, and keeping 10 clean sheets out of 17 so far at Eastlands.

Leading scorer Carlos Tevez (19 goals, 6 assists) is a major doubt for this match having not trained for quite a while and not even figuring on the bench at Everton at the weekend when they lost 1-2. Yes, they do still have David Silva, Adam Johnson and Mario Balotelli, but I feel City’s chances of scoring more than 2 goals in this one are severely limited with the expected absence of Tevez and the x-factor that he possesses.

Harry Redknapp’s Tottenham are in almost free-fall mode as recent results have hampered their European ambitions and they find themselves 6 points adrift of Manchester City in 4^th place.

Spurs have now only won once in their last nine (including home and away) and will be searching desperately for all three points on Tuesday night to get their season back on track. 6 draws out of their last 9 hasn’t done them any favours and whilst they’ve lost just once (1-2 at Chelsea), Harry will see these results as points dropped rather than earnt.

As a consequence, their away record is so-so at 6-5-6 23/26, and they will be nervously looking over their shoulder at an advancing Liverpool who have been injected with fresh impetus following Dalglish’s appointment.

Gareth Bale is a serious doubt to travel to Manchester after being stretchered off against Blackpool at the weekend, and is almost certain to be sidelined with a serious ankle injury. They will certainly miss Bale and the attacking runs the wing-back can produce. First choice keeper Gomes is currently under a cloud at the moment following further keeping catastrophe’s against the Seasiders which ultimately cost Spurs a further two points as they drew 1-1 against Ian Holloway’s men.

The Verdict: Early prices are good for a Man City win but I’ve a nagging doubt in the back of my mind that Spurs may just deny them and grab a point. Instead, I’m expecting a tight match and therefore I’m backing a low-scoring match. City to just edge it 1-0 perhaps, but it could be worth putting a small stake on the 0-0 draw (priced 12.50 with Betfair currently).

Main Pick: Under 2.5 @ 1.98 with Betfair the best price I could find