Newcastle V Blackburn – Pick: Blackburn DNB – Saturday, 7 January 2012

All-Premiership affair not to follow script

FA Cup & League Cup Tips

 

Newcastle United V Blackburn Rovers

Saturday, 7 January 2012 – 15:00 GMT

FA Cup, Third Round

I suspect most will be all over Newcastle this weekend as they prepare to host struggling Blackburn in the FA Cup on the back of their comprehensive 3-0 defeat of Manchester United in the league. However, while the Magpies should host this Third Round tie buoyed by their exploits against the reigning English champions, they do so without two of their most consistent performers this season.

Combative midfielder Cheick Tiote and goal-machine Demba Ba have both earned call-ups from their national teams for the upcoming Africa Cup of Nations in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea so will miss Saturday’s FA Cup tie with Blackburn, as well numerous other important clashes in the Premier League.

The absence of both is huge, colossal even, as they’ve arguably been Alan Pardew’s stand-out performers this season. Tiote is a monster in midfield, destroying opposing attacks with his strong, robust challenges, while he can play a bit, too. Ba on the other hand is probably irreplaceable. The Senegalese has 15 for the season, including his stunning strike in Wednesday’s 3-0 defeat of Manchester United at St James’ Park.

When you consider that Ba accounts for just over half of Newcastle’s total goals this season, (15 of 29), you can see just how big a loss he will be. However Tiote stops teams from playing, by destroying attacks whenever possible, and it is his absence which concerns me the most, as he is one the main reasons why Newcastle have conceded so few goals this season, and why his midfield partner, Yohan Cabaye, has looked so good.

Life without the aforementioned duo begins on Saturday, in the FA Cup, against a side who they’ve had mixed fortunes against this season. In the League Cup, at Ewood Park, they were beaten in the most dramatic of circumstances, by a last-gasp extra-time winner from Rovers defender Gael Givet in a 4-3 thriller, but in the league trounced Steve Kean’s men 3-1 at St James’.

The latter does not bode well for visiting Blackburn who, according to their under-fire manager, simply didn’t turn up that day. There have been too many no-shows from them this season, but not so many on the road, however.

Although two of their three league wins were earned at home, back at a volatile Ewood Park, Blackburn have only lost four away from home, which is four fewer than at home. They’ve also scored more goals, 16 in total, three of which coming in their sensational 3-2 victory over Manchester United at Old Trafford – that result coming on the back of a hard-earned 1-1 draw at Anfield away to Liverpool.

Instead of building on their shock win at the Theatre of Dreams, Rovers typically went the other way, losing 2-1 at home to Stoke the very next game. Yet another no-show from Steve Kean’s side, although he will at least be encouraged by the return of some key figures. Martin Olsson, Gael Givet, Junior Hoilett – who is unquestionably their most creative player – and goalkeeper Paul Robinson are all back from injuries.

It sounds crazy to oppose Newcastle after their Monday night win over Man United, but that is eactly what I am doing. Blackburn are a lot better away from home and should sniff an upset here, against a Newcastle side beginning a precarious spell without two crucial figures who are integral cogs in their well-oiled machine.

A Blackburn win at 5/1 is huge considering they do have a decent record at St James’ Park; Rovers have won on five of their previous six visits to Tyneside to face Newcastle. They have, however, had a knack of squandering opportunities, as well as some seemingly insurmountable leads, so it could pay to go with the visitors on either the ‘Double Chance’ or ‘Draw No Bet’. The former is 10/3 with Bet365, the latter 11/8 with StanJames.

Recommended Bet: Blackburn Rovers ‘Draw No Bet’ @ 10/3 with Bet365

Final score: 2:1