Wednesday 9th December Kickoff: 1945hrs
Olympiakos v Arsenal
Football – Europe – Champions League
Group F appeared to provide a very good opportunity for Arsenal to qualify for the last 16 stage for an incredible 16th straight season, but successive defeats against Dinamo Zagreb and Olympiakos to open their campaign have – combined with a lengthy injury list – have left them likely needing a two goal margin of victory to qualify, whilst anything else (other than a 3-2 loss) will be enough to see the Greeks through to the next stage.
The surprise 3-2 success at the Emirates in October has given Olympiakos an excellent chance of progressing to the knockout phase of this year’s Champions League. Even accounting for two heavy defeats to runaway leaders Bayern Munich, the Greek champions sit three points clear of Arsenal heading into match day six. Their home record in this competition over the years has been very good, losing just three of their last 14 group games in Athens – winning the other 11. Two of those victories were against Arsenal, but qualification for the London club was already assured on both occasions meaning they were able to field weaken teams – that is certainly not the case, tomorrow.
There is no doubt that injuries have taken their toll on Arsenal and their efforts in this season’s Champions League, but even accounting for that, the naivety that continues to exist despite so much experience at this level. It has been a real failing for Arsene Wenger’s men, particularly in defence as they have conceded a number of sloppy goals. The highlight of the group is undoubtedly the 2-0 home win over Bayern Munich which appeared to give them a foot hold, again. Unfortunately for them, however, Olympiakos managed to take all six points from Dinamo which also coincided with a heavy defeat for Arsenal in Munich. Wednesday’s game will certainly be another test of the Gunners threadbare squad but it is at least in their hands.
Olympiakos last qualified for the knockout phase two seasons ago, and whilst it would be something of a surprise to see them finish above Arsenal this time around, they are certainly not the also-rans that they once were in the competition. Six points from their three away games is a very good return and an indication of how much they have improved as their form on the road in previous seasons was a major weakness. Those victories also mean that even a point at home in their final game would suffice for second place.
With the likes of Alexis Sanchez and Santi Cazorla recently added to what was already a substantial injury list, Wenger’s options are somewhat limited heading into this once. Both have been exceptional for the English club and their quality will be severely missed on Wednesday. Their absence does gives others an opportunity to step up to the plate, though, and that includes Aaron Ramsey. The midfielder has had something of a stop-start season because of his own injuries but his goal against Sunderland at the weekend will hopefully signal a return to his best as his goals have been pivotal to any success the team have had over the last 18 months.
Olympiakos v Arsenal Betting Tips
The stakes could hardly be higher for both of these teams but there’s no doubt that the home side are in a much more enviable position than their visitors. Any result apart from a two-goal plus defeat or a 3-2 loss will see them progress, so the onus is very much on Arsenal to seize the initiative and take the game to their opponents from the off. If they had their full quota of players then I would be confident of them getting the result that is required, but I cannot recommend a bet on an away win, let alone by the desired margin, at the current price in these circumstances.
Looking elsewhere for a bet and the one that stands out is for there to be three or more goals scored in this contest. The likely pace of the game will put both defences under pressure and this section has proven that neither back line are the best. The visitors have conceded 10 goals in their five group games whilst the Greek side have shipped one more in the same number of games. 10 of Olympiakos’ last 14 home games in the Champions League have contained at least three goals and four of Arsenal’s last five away games have went over 2.5 goals. There have also been 19 goals in the last five meetings between these two and this game can continue that trend.
Over 2.5 goals 4/5 @ Skybet
