Finishing top of their qualifying group and seemingly drawing a favourable tie for the last 16, Porto responded well enough to the expectation by gaining a 1-1 draw in Switzerland three weeks ago. They had to rely on a late penalty to get that draw but it is a very positive result at this stage of the competition. They got here by topping a group that consisted of Shakthar Donetsk, Athletic Bilbao and BATE. They had a nearly identical record home and away during the group stage, indicating that they are equally effective at both ends of the park. They reached this stage in 2013 but they haven’t been beyond the last 16 since 2009 when they lost out to Manchester United 3-2 on aggregate.
When Basel were drawn with Real Madrid and Liverpool in their Champions League qualifying group not many would have given them a chance of finishing in the top two and making the knockout stages. They surprised many with their stubborn and disciplined displays, and a counter attacking style which was effective in grabbing second behind runaway leaders Real, consigning Liverpool to the Europa League. They would have hoped to hang on to their lead and keep a clean sheet but they are certainly in the tie and sometimes it can help a side knowing that they have to score, no matter what.
Porto were dealt a huge blow with the news their captain, top goalscorer and talisman, Jackson Martinez will be missing through injury. It’s hard to underestimate the importance of the Colombian to Porto’s success but they will have to do without a man who averages three goals every four games. Whoever replaces him will have to be at their best to ensure they lead the line and pressurise the opposition defence. They did hit nine goals at home during the group stage but six of those did come in one game against a poor BATE.
Basel certainly do not have the same resources as Porto and cannot boast the same quality of player but they are a very well drilled team. Paulo Sousa has only been in charge since the summer but he has got them organised, illustrated by them conceding just one goal at home in three group games. They did ship seven away from home but five of those came against Real Madrid. They won’t face that type of quality on Tuesday evening but Sousa does have to set his team up knowing that they have to score.
Neither of these sides are likely to go on and win the Champions League this season but there are big financial incentives for reaching the next stage, not to mention the prestige of competing in the last eight of European football’s premier club competition. Porto have been favourites since the draw was made and they see even more fancied with a vital away goal. The absence of Martinez is a massive flow such is his influence in the team. Basel have shown that they are capable of getting results at difficult venues with a crucial 1-1 draw against Liverpool in the group stage and I think they can achieve a similar result in this game.
Both teams to score 23/20 @ Betvictor
