Now we have sorted the winners of the Premier League (tongue firmly in cheek) focus switches to the other end of the table and those teams bidding to just stay in the league. Aston Villa, Newcastle and Norwich fell foul of the drop last season whilst Sunderland performed yet another miraculous, late season escape to prolong their Premier League stay. It’s no surprise to see the bookmakers have placed all three promoted teams amongst the favourites to go down, as is the case most seasons, but we try and look past the obvious in these previews and find some value. Villa and Leicester (yes, you read that correctly) were the selections 12 months ago so despite getting one spectacularly wrong it was still a profitable preview – hopefully the following will guide us to something similar this time around.
Hull appear to be the most obvious place to start when previewing relegation. Usually being promoted to the top flight is a cause for celebration and looking ahead to playing against the best teams in England, particularly so for Hull who bounced straight back after relegation in 2014/15. Since their narrow 1-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday back in May, however, Hull have been beset by a number of problems with the main one being Steve Bruce’s departure. Whether it was mutual or he was sacked is not really important, what is obvious is that the experienced manager’s relationship with the club’s owners was clearly broke beyond repair. Mike Phelan – formerly assistant to Sir Alex Ferguson – has been given the job, but despite his experience it may seem something of an underwhelming option considering he was assisting Bruce for the last 18 months. Hull have also yet to strengthen their squad and are continually fighting off interest in their key players. It’s not been a great close season for the Tigers and history suggests that promoted teams – particularly those who came up via the playoffs – usually have to add to their squad. There’s time left, of course, but the signs are already ominous on Humberside and it could be a long campaign for Hull and their fans.
Burnley have also bounced straight back after relegation a couple of seasons ago and whilst they will be up against it to stay in the league again, they at least are coming at it from a position of continuity. Sean Dyche will again lead the Clarets in the top flight after an unsuccessful attempt in 2014/15. Burnley, like Hull, are becoming something of a yoyo club which is no slight on them considering the difficulty smaller clubs face. However, as I alluded to in terms of Hulls chances of staying up, promoted teams fair better when there is investment in the playing squad and that’s not been hugely apparent at Turf Moor during the summer. It’s admirable that they are not willing to put the future of the club at stake by being financially irresponsible but there is a case to be made for speculating to accumulate. Jon Flanagan has been the biggest name arriving, on a season long loan from Liverpool, whilst Joey Barton (who won the fans player of the year last season) has moved to Rangers. Despite his advancing years, Barton’s experience will be a miss. The manager has stated that new players will come in and he’s got the backing of the chairman in that respect, but Burnley would bite your hand off for 17th at the moment – which in itself will be challenging.
Despite finishing second to Burnley last season, Middlesbrough are fancied to equip themselves better in the Premier League. Aitor Karanka’s men narrowly missed out on promotion the previous campaign when losing to Norwich in the playoff final but they achieved a top two finish back in May to ensure they avoided the drama of those games for a second straight season. Having brought in the likes of Jordan Rhodes and Stewart Downing during their Championship campaign, anything less than promotion would have been seen as a failure. Now they have reached the top again after seven seasons away, the owner has sought to give his club every chance of prolonging their stay by adding real quality to their ranks. Alvargo Negredo, Victor Valdes and Viktor Fischer have all joined up at the Riverside and will likely have leading roles to play for ‘Boro. They have definitely been the most active of the three promoted clubs in the transfer window and also have the resources to strengthen further – both during this window and again in January. Without simplifying it too much, because of the backing Karanka has had and will continue to get, I believe Middlesbrough will have enough to survive.
Now we’ve covered the promoted teams, attention shifts to the clubs who’s first objective is always to remain in the league and build from that. Sunderland have come close to being relegated in the last four seasons but a strategic change in manager seems to save them each time. Their change in manager has come slightly early this time around as Sam Allardyce takes up the England job, leaving the post free for David Moyes to return to English football for the first time since his sacking from Manchester United. Moyes is no stranger to working at this end of the table having experienced it when he joined Everton, but he will be more ambitious than just surviving. Whether that’s ill founded or not, only time will tell, but the Black Cats are going to need more than just a few fringe players from Moyes’ previous employers if they are to steer clear of the bottom three.
West Brom under Tony Pulis are about as pragmatic a team as you are ever likely to see. Only Aston Villa scored fewer than them last season and as Matt Phillips has been the only major signing to date, I think it’s safe to assume much of the same for the coming season. Pulis has long carried a reputation for building from a strong defence and essentially plays four centre halves which goes some way to explaining why the Baggies do not score many. There’s no question that the team will be well organised and difficult to beat but the standard of the Premier League is better this season and teams who finished below them are spending a lot of money to ensure they remain competitive. Like every other manager in the league, Pulis will be working overtime to get some new faces in over the next few weeks but even at that I struggle to think it will be enough.
Of the other teams, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth are obvious contenders when it comes to relegation having finished on 42 points last season – only five off Newcastle. It was an incredible fall for Palace who were being considered as potential Champions League qualifiers at Christmas time only to drop away dramatically in the second half of the season. There has been a fair bit of turnover in terms of the playing staff this summer with further expected before the 31st of August. Despite their poor showing from January onwards, Palace look to have more than enough quality to keep their heads above water and I fully expect there will be at least three teams worse off than them come the end of the season. For all the money that Bournemouth and Eddie Howe are spending, they do not appear to be getting great value for it. Jordan Ibe is an expensive gamble for £15m, for example, but that aside, the Cherries biggest asset is their manager. Howe has been excellent since taking over and they were relatively comfortable last season despite slipping away late on. Providing they can keep Callum Wilson fit he can provide most of the goals that see them safe, and he may have to score a few if they do not tighten up at the back. Watford are another team to keep an eye on with the change in manager at Vicarage Road. They do have a potent strike force, though, and that may well just about save them if they do find themselves involved in a relegation scrap.
Betting Tips
Due to the current positions of Hull and Burnley, there is virtually no value in selecting either of these two to be relegated. I did look at Hull to finish bottom which is available at 2/1 but even though they appear to be the weakest of all 20 teams, backing a team to finish in an exact position at those odds is not a brilliant strategy.
My main bet in this market is for West Brom to finish in the bottom three. I have alluded to my reasoning earlier but there’s no harm in reiterating it – the lack of goals. Pulis and the club’s directors may well surprise me and go out and buy a couple of players which drastically changes things but at the time of writing, West Brom look to be short of a dozen or so goals on last season’s total and that will be very difficult for this team and their style of play to turn around.
The other bet I am advising is a bit of fun and should be staked accordingly. Several bookmakers are offering combination tricasts for relegation and the two I like in this market are Burnley, Hull and West Brom all to go down, and Hull, West Brom and Sunderland to meet a similar fate. Whilst I think Burnley will struggle, they have a very good manager and he could yet work some magic to keep them up. Sunderland can only pull off so many great escapes until they fall through the trap door and I’m not totally sold on the appointment of Moyes.
West Brom to be relegated 5/2 @ Betvictor
Relegation Tricasts
Burnley/Hull/West Brom @ 28/1 @Boylesports
Hull/West Brom/Sunderland 40/1 @ Boylesports
