Saturday 21st November 2015 Kickoff: 1715hrs
Real Madrid v Barcelona
Football – Spain – Primera Division
It’s the biggest club game in European football, and arguably the biggest game of football anywhere in the world. When Real Madrid and Barcelona take to the field at the Bernabeu on Saturday evening, an estimated 500m people will be tuned in anticipating another gripping 90 minutes of the drama that is known as ‘El Clasico’. Both clubs sit second and first, respectively, in La Liga – separated by three points. A win for the hosts would see them leapfrog their opponents whilst a Barcelona success would see the current champions make a huge statement in the backyard of their nearest rivals.
Following his succession of Carlo Ancelotti in the summer, Rafa Benitez will take charge of his first El Clasico as Real Madrid boss. His appointment was met with mixed opinion at the time and it is a similar case heading into what will be his biggest test thus far. The Real support are not entirely convinced that his more pragmatic style of play is suited to the squad of players that has been accumulated over the last few years. From the cavalier and expansive philosophy that was prevalent under the former coach, it’s certainly been slightly different in the early stages of Benitez’ reign. Despite a more reserved approach, Real are still the highest scorers in the league, but it is a much more modest rate compared to 12 months ago. The defeat to Sevilla last time out was the first that Real have lost in the league this season but it was enough to hand an advantage to Barcelona ahead of their first meeting of the 2015/16 campaign.
After winning the treble (for the second time in their history) last season, the challenge for all concerned was how on earth would they be able to follow that achievement?! There was even talk of Luis Enrique losing his job due to an internal disagreements. Fortunately, common sense prevailed and the head coach was able to continue his work at the Nou Camp. Like their weekend opponents, Barcelona have not been as free-scoring, which has in part been due to the injury Lionel Messi suffered back in September. Barca ended up losing their next league game which prompted doubts about how capable the squad was without the little Argentine. Those doubts appear to have been unfounded as they have won six of their last seven games, with their only blip coming against lower league opposition in the Copa Del Rey. It’s a great testament to the effort from the coach and his squad that they were able to build a lead in the title race without the services of the best player in the world.
An indication of how more resolute Real Madrid have become under Benitez is the difference in the number of goals conceded, particularly at home. Las Palmas are the only visiting team to have scored at the Bernabeu this season which is in stark contrast to the last campaign when they conceded in 11 of their 19 home games in La Liga. It’s no secret that the former Valencia, Liverpool and Napoli coach does look to strengthen the defence of his team’s, and that is often by affording them more protection – particularly in midfield. That’s one of the reasons why Casimero has played as much recently. The Brazilian is much more defensive minded than Toni Kroos or Luka Modric, and he could well start on Saturday as Benitez will try to limit the space between the midfield and defence.
The big news for Barcelona will concern whether or not Messi is fit enough to return to the side following injury. He returned to training at the beginning of the week and it would normally be a given that he would play even if not 100% fit. That may well be the case but it is not as much of a certainty as it once would have been. Luis Enrique will be thinking of long-term and the challenges that lie ahead for Barcelona – their season will not be decided by this one game. In his absence it’s no surprise to see that Luis Suarez and Neymar have stepped up to the plate and continued their excellent form of last season. The duo are responsible for 20 of Barcelona’s 25 league goals. Both will definitely be in action and looking to further prove that the days of depending solely on Messi are very much over.
Real Madrid v Barcelona Betting Tips
This fixture is synonymous with goals and it’s almost expected that there will be a a few scored whenever these two meet, these days. Both teams have scored in the last 18 Real Madrid-Barcelona games, dating all the way back to 2011. You have to go back even further than that to find a La Liga game which did not see both teams finding the back of the net, occurring in that infamous 5-0 thrashing Barca dished out to the then Jose Mourinho managed Real.
In those 18 games, there have been 66 goals in total – an average of 3.7 goals a game. It’s a staggering statistic and evidences how both sides have approached this fixture. Bookmakers believe that will be the case again as they price both teams to score and over 2.5 goals shorter than 1/2. To my eye, those prices are based upon the stats above rather than how both teams have performed this season.
Both Real Madrid and Barcelona still average more than two goals a game but that is a much more modest average than season’s gone by. I have alluded to Real’s improved defence but Barca also seem to be improving on that end having had a rocky start to the season. When you also factor in the doubts over key attacking players on both sides ( Gareth Bale, James Rodriguez and Messi), I think there is value in going against the grain here and siding with a low-scoring game. Benitez will definitely not want to lose more ground on the league leaders which may see them be cautious. Barcelona are also in the same boat, and a draw would be a welcome result as it keeps the three point margin intact.
Of course, it could easily be 3-3 but I think the value lies in fewer goals, especially as a lot of these players will be returning from international duty and may not be at their sharpest.
Under 2.5 goals 13/8 @ Betfair
