It has been a very disappointing week for Carlo Ancelotti and his Real Madrid players, with defeat to Juventus in the first leg of their Champions League semi-final, before dropping two points at home to Valencia which looks to have ended their bid for the La Liga title. In a campaign that promised so much during the first half of the season, if Real were to finish empty-handed, it would be a serious underachievement. Last year’s triumph in this competition appeared to signal their return to becoming the best club team job in Europe but if Barcelona – who look like pipping them to the domestic titles – were to take their crown, it would be a very bitter pill to swallow for everybody concerned at the club, and one which the players will be determined to avoid. Before they can consider that, however, they face a massive challenge in the shape of the Italian champions.
Although Juventus would have been delighted to win the first leg and bring a lead to the Bernabeu, there was probably a touch of regret that it is not a two goal lead. Fernando Llorente missed an excellent chance to make it 3-1 in stoppage time and it remains to be seen how crucial that miss will proved to be. Away from that, it was a very assured performance and one that will give them great confidence of getting the result they need on Wednesday to progress to their first Champions League final since 2003. Apart from the end of the first half, when Real got the equaliser and look capable of scoring another – Juve dominated proceedings and more than matched their more illustrious opponents. The Serie A champions will also be boosted by the return to action of Paul Pogba, who played (and scored) his first game in nearly two months following an injury.
Much of the talk over the last couple of months in Madrid has been the form – or lack thereof – of Gareth Bale. Fans and media feel the most-expensive player in the world has not been of the standard required. It is hard to argue that claim as the Welshman has struggled and looked bereft of confidence lately. He has not scored a goal in his last six games, and for a player who scored with such regularity earlier in the season, it is something of a concern. Aside from his form in front of goal, Bale simply has to have more involvement and impact in the game, in general.
Juventus’ away form in the Champions League has been much less impressive than when playing at home. Their last nine away games in this competition have seen them on the end of five defeats, winning just two. The positive side of that for Massimo Allegri is that those two victories are part of a three match unbeaten run coming into this game. They have also kept clean sheets in all of them and know that if they can do so again, they will be contesting the final against Barcelona in Berlin on the 6th June.
Clearly this is a very delicately poised tie between sides who looked evenly match in the first leg, last Tuesday. Real Madrid have to get over the disappointing draw with Valencia, focussing on defending their Champions League title. Juventus, on the other hand, are continuing to surprise everybody with their run in this competition, but such is their tradition and mentality, they would feel like they have failed if they do not go on to make the final and win the whole thing, now. Rather than select a winner, I have opted for two side bets. Both teams to score appeals very much considering how fragile Real have looked, defensively, in recent weeks. Juve have shown how capable they are on the counter throughout this season and I fully expect them to score. The other selection is for Juventus to receive more than 3.5 cards. With bookings having been wiped out after the quarter-final stage, players have more freedom to make fouls they may otherwise have not with an increased risk of suspension, and as I expect the visitors to have to defend for a lot of this game, there may be the need to pick up some bookings for the greater good of the team.
Both teams to score 17/29 @ Ladbrokes
Over 3.5 Juventus bookings 4/5 @ Bet365
