Real Madrid v Manchester City Betting Preview, 2016-05-04

Than man Ronaldo to spoil City dreams

Champions League Tips

Wednesday 4th May 2016 Kickoff 1945hrs
Real Madrid v Manchester City
Football – Champions League – Europe

When Real Madrid were paired with Manchester City in the semi-finals of the Champions League, two entertaining games, full of goals and excitement were expected. That made the match in Manchester all the more surprising as both sides approached the first leg with plenty of caution and appeared happy with the goalless draw. It would be virtually impossible for Wednesday’s game to be as uneventful but with so much pressure contained within this match, anything is possible.

The big team news surrounding Real Madrid last week was the late withdrawal (or non-selection, rather) of Cristiano Ronaldo. The Portuguese forward is practically an ever-present when fit, and is often selected even when he’s not quite 100%, so we know the knock that kept him out was serious enough. His absence would have undoubtedly had an impact on the way in which Zinedine Zidane set his team up to play as he is so pivotal to how Real attack. With three hat-tricks already in this year’s competition – and 16 goals in total – not having him available led to Real being much more conservative in attack from the outset. Zidane’s attacking options were reduced even further with Karim Benzema having to depart at half-time and unlike Ronaldo, the Frenchman will not be fit enough to take his place at the Bernabeu. It goes without saying that all connected with the club would prefer to have Ronaldo playing if they had the choice but Benzema’s influence as the central striker should not be underestimated – he’s the only player in the Real Madrid squad who plays that position effectively.

There was more than a hint of nerves in Manchester City’s performance last week which is unsurprising considering that it’s the first time they have ever competed at this stage. Manuel Pellegrini’s men started well enough and had the majority of possession in the first-half but they lost their way somewhat when David Silva was taken off injured late on in the first 45. Silva’s ability to link the play and retain the ball high up the field is essential to how City play and with him going off it left more space for Real’s deep-lying midfield to control the game better. It’s not certain the condition of Silva but it seems he’s more likely to miss out than play any part and that would be a severe dent to City’s hopes of reaching the final. Yaya Toure, who never played last week, has travelled to Madrid and could make a surprise return. His experience would be invaluable but he’s becoming rather erratic overall, and it could be something of a gamble if he was to start a game where the pace if likely to be much more frantic than eight days ago.

For all the plaudits that Real Madrid’s attackers get, it should be noted how good they have been defensively at home in the Champions League. No visiting team has scored in the 2015/16 competition, with a record reading five wins, 16 goals scored and none conceded. It’s that sort of record which will have given Zidane the confidence to be more defensive in their approach last week, knowing that they are capable of shutting out a Sergio Aguero-led attack in the return. It’s important not to get carried away, however, as Real have faced some poor opponents in their run to the semi-final. PSG are the strongest team they have faced to date but there appears to be a doubt over their credentials after a poor quarter-final tie against City. Other than that, Wolfsburg, Shakthar Donetsk, Malmo and Roma have all been kept to nil, but anybody who would have watched the game against the Italians would tell you the chances the visitors passed up that evening. I do not doubt that Zidane has had a positive impact on Real’s defence, and the influence of Casemiro is also a positive, but they can most certainly be got at.

City created virtually nothing last week but because they kept a clean sheet they know that should they score on Wednesday it will give them an excellent chance of reaching their first ever Champions League/European Cup final. Scoring goals on the road in this competition has not been an issue for them, either, managing 10 in their five games to date. Only last year’s finalists Juventus have managed to keep them at bay on their travels and that should give them plenty of hope going into this one. One major concern for Pellegrini is that they are also liable to concede away from home, and have not managed to keep a clean sheet since winning in Rome in December 2014. That’s the balancing act that the manager has to get right if they are to be victorious – being able to offer a real threat going forward, but also giving their defence the protection it needs.

Real Madrid v Manchester City Betting Tip

It was hard not to be disappointed with the first-leg so let’s hope that the return is much more what we had all originally anticipated. With Ronaldo back in the fold I expect Real to be much more of a threat. There were signs in the second-half that they were beginning to get on top of City and only a couple of saves from Joe Hart prevented them taking a precious lead home with them. How important those missed chances will be in the context of this tie remains to be seen but it proves that even with a decimated attack, Real have more than enough quality to create chances against this City team. The visitors would have been much better equipped if Silva was fit to start this game as his ability on the ball in the final third is so important, and he has an understanding with Aguero that has proven so deadly down the years.

It’s a return to the Bernabeu for Manuel Pellegrini who managed Real for one season back in 2008/09. As much as I would like to see it be a fairytale one for the likeable Chilean, I don’t think his team have quite enough to get them through. They lacked much-needed experience last week and that could ultimately be their downfall. Ronaldo is the all-time leading scorer in the Champions League and he has scored in seven of Real’s 10 wins in this year’s competition. The former Manchester United player would love nothing more than to score against City and book another appearance in the final against Atletico – it may not be the most original selection but Ronaldo to score and Real to win is the bet.

Ronaldo to score/Real win 11/10 @ Ladbrokes