Tuesday 8th March 2016 Kickoff: 1945hrs Real Madrid v Roma Football – Europe – Champions League
Real Madrid took a giant step to securing their place in the quarter-finals of the Champions League with an authoritative 2-0 win over Roma in the eternal city two weeks ago. Goals from Cristiano Ronaldo and Jese – who come on as a substitute – were the difference on the night and should ensure a relatively comfortable night in the Santiago Bernabeu on Tuesday evening. Considering the troubles that Real have had on their travels domestically (three wins in their last seven La Liga away games), Zinedine Zidane would have been delighted with the performance and result – particularly the clean sheet. That’s not to say that Roma were unable to trouble them, but it was not as tricky an evening as some predicted for the Spanish giants. Although it appears as though they have negotiated the most difficult aspect of this tie by scoring two away goals without reply, last season’s 4-3 defeat at home to Schalke at the same stage will still be in the minds of these players and there remains a job to do – which Zidane will certainly be reminding them of.
When the draw was made for the last-16 back in December, Roma would just have been happy to have qualified such was their difficulties in the group stage. Being paired with Real Madrid was always going to be a massive ask of the Serie A side and whilst they certainly never disgraced themselves in the first leg, there was a noticeable difference in quality between themselves and Real – particularly in attack. Their opponents never hit top gear but they were able to clinically convert two half-chances that they created, whilst Roma managed to get themselves into some very good positions without being able to finish the situation off. They have responded well to that defeat, however, winning their three league games since, including an impressive 4-1 win over fellow Champions League qualification chasing Fiorentina on Friday. Luciano Spalletti will be hoping that that performance will give his players confidence ahead of their daunting trip to Spain, especially as the last time they visited the country it was when they were thumped 6-1 by Real Madrid’s arch rivals Barcelona during the group stage in November.
Real warmed up for this game with an amazing 7-1 win over a hapless Celta Vigo on Saturday. Incredibly, it was the fifth time that Real have hit five or more goals in La Liga at home this season including 10 in one game. They were also free-scoring at the Bernabeu in the Champions’ League group stages netting 13 goals in three games and it’s a venue that usually brings the best out in their attacking players. Atletico Madrid and Barcelona are the only sides to have shut Real Madrid out at home this season, and it would be a surprise if Roma were able to add themselves to that list on Tuesday. Zidane would not only have been happy with the seven goals scored on Saturday, but he would also have been delighted with the goal-scoring return of Gareth Bale who has been missing since the middle of January with an injury. His out-and-out pace adds a further dimension to Real’s attack and he is likely to return to the starting line-up for the visit of Roma – ominously, he’s yet to score in this season’s Champions League.
Although the embarrassing loss at the Nou Camp will be fresh on the Roma players’ minds, it came at a stage of the season where confidence would have been low and it was ultimately nearing the end of Rudi Garcia’s reign. Since Spalletti has taken over the club have been resurgent in Serie A and should be in a much better frame of mind for this game. That’s not to say that they are capable of a dramatic turnaround in this tie, but there should at least be some hope of turning in a more professional performance. Real may score plenty of goals but they also provide the opposition with numerous chances per match such is their attacking philosophy. Zidane’s men have managed to keep only one clean sheet in their last five home games and that should give Roma some confidence. The challenge for them, though, is being able to take some of the chances that come their way which they were unable to do a fortnight ago.
Real Madrid v Roma Betting Tips
Real Madrid are rightly heavy favourites with the bookmakers to progress to the next stage of this year’s Champions League and they’re also a skinny enough price to win the second leg. I fully expect them to take their place in the quarter-finals and would be surprised if they do not have enough to win on Tuesday night, too. That doesn’t mean to say that there is not some value to be had elsewhere, however.
One thing you can usually count on when Real Madrid play at home is goals – and lots of them. 10 of their last 11 home games in all competitions have seen four or more goals scored, and given the scenario of this game, it’s a trend I fully expect to continue. Roma are somewhere in-between the sides that Real Madrid routinely dismantle and the top teams in Europe. There’s no doubting that they possess quality but there is a question over their temperament, especially if they are behind and without a chance in games.
With Bale’s return it should see the BBC (Bale, Benzema and Cristiano) reunited from the start and that will spell trouble for any side. Roma are unlikely to go gung-ho from the outset but there will be an onus on them to try and force the issue considering they are behind. Over the course of the game, Real will get plenty of chances and with the form Ronaldo has been in of late (12 goals in his last eight games) it would be very surprising if they do not continue their excellent form in front of goal. Having scored three or more goals in 13 of their 19 home games this year, the odds against on this happening on Tuesday is more than fair.
Real Madrid Over 2.5 goals 5/4 @ William Hill
