Tuesday 12th April 2016 Kickoff 1945hrs
Real Madrid v Wolfsburg
Football – Champions League – Europe
Without doubt, the biggest shock of the first leg quarter-finals last week was Wolfsburg 2-0 win at home to Real Madrid. The Bundesliga club were seen as one of the most favourable ties when the quarter-final draw was made but they thoroughly deserved their win against the 10 time winners and will be looking to finish the job off on Tuesday to progress to their first ever semi-final in this competition.
Having earned so many plaudits following inflicting Barcelona’s first defeat of 2016 the weekend before the first leg in Germany, Real Madrid were expected to build on the performance and result and secure a positive result against the Bundesliga club. However, the performance they turned in was reminiscent of so many of their away day blues this season under both Zinedine Zidane and previous manager Rafael Benitez. Real looked disjointed during the match and there was no sign of their excellent defensive display that led them to victory in the Nou Camp only a few days previous. It was their first loss in the Champions League since losing to Juventus in last season’s semi-final and one that leaves them right up against it to reach the last four this time around. Zidane will point to crucial decisions when it was goalless as Cristiano Ronaldo had a goal ruled out for offside which, on another day, could easily have stood. The visitors also had what looked a more than reasonable claim for a penalty after Gareth Bale was felled in the box but the referee waived way those claims and Wolfsburg took full advantage to leave Real Madrid right up against it heading into the return.
Wolfsburg are competing in the Champions League for the first time since 2009 so even managing to negotiate the group stage would have been deemed success for a team that are novices at this level. The Germans topped their group in the end-up and were rewarded with a last-16 match against Gent – a tie they were successful both home and away. Many predicted their run to come to an end against one of the giants of European football in this round but they stand a great chance of progressing further in the competition. It was virtually the perfect evening for manager Dieter Hecking having seen his side not only win but keep a clean sheet in the process, avoiding any away goals. If he has one complaint it may be that his team failed to take one of their many chances in the second half to give them a bigger cushion ahead of their trip to the Bernabeu but it’s a result that they would have been delighted with before a ball was kicked. In what has been a frustrating domestic campaign for them, their participation in the Champions League has been a major positive if somewhat surprising. The win over Real is their only success in the last five which gives an indication of how much of a shock it actually was considering their recent form.
Zidane took the option of resting some key players in Real’s facile 4-0 win against Eibar on Saturday in with a view to the return leg. Bale, Toni Kroos, Marcelo and Luca Modric never took any part in the game whilst Sergio Ramos and Karim Benzema missed out through suspension and injury. It’s the prognosis of the French striker which will concern Zidane most as he has been in terrific form since returning from an injury suffered earlier in the season. His presence in the team also makes Ronaldo and Bale more dangerous as Benzema is able to occupy central defenders and provide that focal point at the top of Real’s attack – he’s also scored 25 goals this season. Zidane came in for some criticism after the first leg for deploying Danilo at right back instead of Dani Carvajal. The latter has been in excellent form recently so it was somewhat surprising to see him dropped, whilst the expectation is he will return to the starting eleven on Tuesday in place of the Brazilian.
With qualification to next season’s Champions League via the Bundesliga looking increasingly unlikely, Wolfsburg have the unenviable task of having to win this year’s competition if they are to be competing with Europe’s best for the second season running. That may be something of an aspiration but their first leg exploits will be a massive confidence boost to the whole squad. Their away performances in the Champions League are also the cause for some optimism as they have scored in three of four away ties, winning two of them against CSKA Moscow and Gent. This obviously represents a massive step up in class and the atmosphere is likely to be different as well. However, even managing to score will be a massive boost to their chances of qualifying as it would leave their hosts requiring four to progress, emphasising just how important that clean sheet was last Wednesday.
Real Madrid v Wolfsburg Betting Tips
It would be foolish to write off Real Madrid on the back of the first leg result but they will certainly have to play better in order to overturn the two-goal deficit. They key to their chances will be the fitness of Benzema, in my opinion, and the signals coming out of Madrid is that he will start. An early goal for the home side would put a completely different complexion on things and bearing in mind they are playing against an inexperienced team at this level, and one that are currently eighth in their own league, it could yet be a long night for the Germans. Wolfsburg cannot afford to sit back on their lead and will be realistic enough to expect to have to score if they are to reach the semi-finals so it promises to be a fascinating 90 minutes…at least.
Even when Real Madrid do not have to chase a couple of goals their defence has looked vulnerable, particularly at home. In recent weeks both Roma and Sevilla have created a plethora of chances but failed to convert so I would not be overly taken by the fact that they have kept three consecutive clean sheets at home. Wolfsburg have pace in abundance going forward and with Julian Draxler have a player who is capable of picking that killer pass which will be a major asset one the break. All in all, I see goals and lots of them on Tuesday in the Spanish capital. The hosts are massive favourites to win the tie and are still expected to progress but I can see them being troubled. The main selection is for both teams to score and there to be over 2.5 goals whilst I also suggest a speculative bet on a correct score of 5-1, for small stakes.
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals 10/11 @ Stan James
Correct score 5-1 21/1 @ Betvictor
