Football – England – Premier League
Saturday 12th April 2014 – Kickoff: 1507hrs
Southampton will be looking to bounce back from their horror show at Manchester City last Saturday where they were soundly beaten 1-4 by their hosts, and will be keen to inflict the same sort of misery on their visitors this afternoon at St Mary’s Stadium.
The defeat at Manchester City signalled back-to-back losses on the road following a 2-3 loss at White Hart Lane against Tottenham, but their form at home has been pretty solid in recent weeks as The Saints have lost just once in their last six.
Wins against West Brom 1-0, Norwich City 4-2 and Newcastle United 4-0 along with holding Arsenal and Stoke City to 2-2 draws have maintained Southampton’s push for a top half finish and they possess an overall home record of 7-5-4 29/21 at St Mary’s keeping six clean sheets to date.
However, if Southampton do take all three points this afternoon they’ll have to do so without the services of striker Jay Rodriguez (15 goals) as he’s been ruled out for six months with a ruptured anterior cruciate ligament. The Saints do have the likes of Lambert (11 goals, 10 assists) and goalscoring midfielder Lallana (9 goals, 6 assists) in their ranks though and I expect them to step up here today.
Visitors Cardiff City are now in the land of ‘do-or-die’ with just five matches remaining, they are six points adrift of Norwich City and safety with away trips to Southampton, Sunderland and Newcastle United and home matches against Stoke City and Chelsea.
Basically, The Bluebirds need to win at least three of their last five to have a chance of staying up and hope that Norwich City and West Brom slip up, but with three defeats from their last four, Cardiff City face a mountain to climb to avoid relegation.
Losses against Everton, Liverpool and Crystal Palace, the latter being perhaps the final nail in their coffin, has resulted in Cardiff occupying second from bottom as the current bottom three of Fulham, Cardiff City and Sunderland look favourites now for the drop. In addition, Cardiff’s overall away form has been woeful as they’ve lost eight of their last nine away matches and have gone a total of thirteen away matches without a win – their overall away record stands at a poor 1-4-11 11/32, keeping just two clean sheets and failing to score on nine occasions.
Southampton at home are a solid proposition and are akin perhaps to an ‘Everton’ at St Mary’s Stadium. I therefore expect Saints to win and to cover the -1 handicap given Cardiff’s poor showing in the goalscoring department on the road. Southampton to win perhaps 2-0.
Pick: Southampton AH-1 @ 1.78 Pinnacle
