Football – England – Skrill Premier
Thursday 27th March 2014 – Kickoff: 1945hrs
Thursday night brings us two fixtures in the Skrill Premier and my focus will be on hosts Southport when they take on mid-table Forest Green Rovers at Haig Avenue as they look to pull away from the bottom four.
Southport will no doubt be looking forward to returning to familiar territory for tonight’s clash as they’ve had to travel for three of their last four matches which has seen The Sandgrounders lose at Woking 0-2 and then share the points at Chester and Kidderminster in 2-2 and 1-1 draws respectively. However, it’s Southport’s home form which really interests me for tonight’s pick as they’ve won their last four on the trot at Haig Avenue with wins over Salisbury City 3-1, Grimsby Town 2-1, Dartford 3-0 and Macclesfield Town 4-1.
Southport’s overall record at home has been a very solid one all season and stands head and shoulders above the teams around them in the division with a record of 10-4-4 26/17. In addition, the bulk of their wins have come against the top half teams and in fact they’ve won seven of their eight encounters with such teams to date.
Forest Green Rovers are sitting comfortably in a mid-table position currently but they themselves are only three points adrift of fifth placed Nuneaton Town who occupy the last play-off spot. Forest Green have recently enjoyed the luxury of playing four of their last five matches at their New Lawn ground where they’ve beaten Salisbury City and Grimsby Town, drawn with Welling United and lost to Braintree Town which was a little unexpected.
Away from home, it’s a slightly different story despite recent wins at lowly Tamworth and already-relegated Hyde, take these out of the equation and they’ve won just one more from the previous twelve away games (4-1 at Salisbury City back in November).
Forest Green’s overall away record stands at a disappointing 4-4-9 27/33 and they have conceded in each and every away match so far this season which is also another factor to consider here.
In summary, Southport have performed very well at home against the perceived better sides in the division, and with Forest Green’s generous defence on the road, I reckon there’s some value to be had here in backing the hosts with the handicap whilst ensuring the best insurance possible for the pick. This could actually be a 2-1 Southport win anyway.
Pick: Southport AH+0.5 @ 1.91 Bet Victor
