It’s last chance saloon for Greek champions Panathinaikos, or as we like to call them ‘Reject United’. The 2009/2010 Greek Super League winners were rewarded with Champions League football for their efforts back home last term, where they finished six point above Greek powerhouses Olympiakos. Not only that, they were prolific in front of goal and as solid as one would hope for a Greek side at the back.
On Wednesday, the Athens based club will find out their fate with regards to whether they’ll still be in with a chance of making the last-sixteen. However, the only way that can happen is if they beat the 2008/2009 champions Barcelona, who spanked the Greek’s 5-1 back at the Nou Camp. In fairness to Pana, they did have the courage, audacity and foolishness to score first in Spain through Lyon pass-off Sidney Govou, but not only were they battered black and blue thereafter, that one solitary strike from a player passed his sell-by date remains the team’s only goal in Europe this season. Even at home against the group’s not so glamours pairing of Russia’s Rubin Kazan and Denmark’s FC Copenhagen, Pana still couldn’t conjure a goal so what are the chances of them doing so this evening?
Well, considering Barcelona scoring should be a formality, what with Pep Guardiola not expected to take Wednesday’s encounter lightly by resting the trademark names, your Messi, Villa, Iniesta and Xavi etc, the bookies are keen to throw out the bait of evens and hope we jump up board. And we’ve duly obliged.
OK, so we’re not Panathinaikos’ biggest fan at the moment, but they’re still sat in a prominent position domestically, second in the Greek Super League, and are by no means out of this competition just yet. With that said, qualification seems unlikely considering they ideally need maximum points from their last two group fixtures. However, there is still the small matter of finishing third and with Rubin Kazan currently occupying third position with just three points, one more than Pana, the Greek’s will know they desperately need some sort of result against the Spanish sensations in order to avoid a premature exit from European competition altogether.
It’s true that Barca have been far better on their travels this season, domestically at least, boasting six La Liga wins from six. They even slammed a stunning 8 home at the weekend away to Almeria, taking their tally of away goals to 21 – an average of 3.5 goals per away match. It’s formidable stuff you have to say, however playing away from home in Europe has been a completely different kettle of fish. Believe it or not but Barca, after their 1-1 draw in Copenhagen last time out, have now gone five away Champions League matches without a win and have only won one of their last eleven away encounters. We’re not done just yet though, as the Catalan giants have never won an away European clash with Panathinaikos in Greece, in fact fact the Greens from Athens haven’t even conceded a goal in their previous two home meetings with the La Liga outfit.
The fact Barcelona have been so dire on the road in Europe this season, for a while in fact, is a slight concern but they’ll never have an easier opportunity to end a barren run than a trip to Athens to take on bottom of the table Panathinaikos. Then again, I suppose, rather ironically, the same could be said the opposite way round considering how poor the Catalan club has been both on their travels in Europe and in Greece against Pana in specific. Still, we just don’t see Barca coming unstuck and while their odds to clinch the three points which would guarantee them progression are extremely slim, although Guardiola’s men only require a point in Athens to seal qualification, we do see a tough of value in the goal markets.
We’ve been here before with Barca this season, backing them to show their forward prowess and instead of flexing their attacking muscles as they did at the weekend and have been doing for several weeks now back in La Liga, they haven’t done so in Europe as of yet. On the back of an 8-0 mauling of Almeria last Saturday, we’re putting our faith in Lionel Messi & Co to deliver for once, which is a bizarre statement considering Messi has scored the opening goal in nine of Barcelona’s last sixteen matches (Not including the Copa Del Rey). The fact Panathinaikos have no choice but to go for it tonight will lead to aches of space in behind the Greek defence ready and waiting to be exploited by some of the world’s greatest midfield/attacking engineers. And should Barce score early on, this could be any number as defeat for the hosts, considering Rubin are tipped to win in Russia against FC Copenhagen, is unthinkable as it would result in an early exit from Europe, with not even the fallback of Europa League football an option should they lose on Wednesday evening and results elsewhere go against them.
Panathinaikos’ fate is in their hands at least, just not capable hands in this instance. Still, we reckon their ‘needs must’ situation will at least see them show some hunger and desire in the final third which just might trouble a Barce defence which has conceded in both of their away Group D encounters thus far. Moreover, the Greens warmed up for Wednesday’s crunch clash with Barca by beating mid-table Iraklis 4-2 in Athens. Former Liverpool striker Djibril Cisse has 11 goals in 15 matches for the Greens this season and could also be worth taking a chance on. However, because circumstances dictate and because Pana quite simply haven’t been great in Europe thus far, as well as both sides arriving in Athens on the back of two high-scoring domestic victories, we’re sticking all our shillings on Wednesday’s match producing plenty of goals.
Panathinaikos Statistics
Champions League Results
Match Day 1: Barcelona 5-1 Panathinaikos
Match Day 2: Panathinaikos 0-2 FC Copenhagen
Match Day 3: Panathinaikos 0-0 Rubin Kazan
Match Day 4: Rubin Kazan 0-0 Panathinaikos
Domestic Record (2010/2011)
W/D/L: 7-3-1 (Home: 4-2-)
Goal Difference: 19-10 (Home: 11-6)
Over/Under: 5-6 (Home: 3-3)
Top Goalscorer: Djibril Cisse – 10 Goals
Barcelona Statistics
Champions League Results
Match Day 1: Barcelona 5-1 Panathinaikos
Match Day 2: Rubin Kazan 1-1 Barcelona
Match Day 3: Barcelona 2-0 FC Copenhagen
Match Day 4: FC Copenhagen 1-1 Panathinaikos
Domestic Record (2010/2011)
W/D/L: 10-1-1 (Away: 6-0-0)
Goal Difference: 33-8 (Away: 21-3)
Over/Under: 8-4 (Away: 5-1)
Top Goalscorer: Lionel Messi – 13 Goals
Betting Odds & Tips
Matt’s Selections:
Over 3.5 Goals – 2.75 Bet365
Both Teams to Score (Yes) – 2.00 WilliamHill
Djibril Cisse to Score Anytime – 4.50 SkyBet
Match Odds:
Panathinaikos – 10.00 VCBet
Draw – 5.25 StanJames
Barcelona – 1.40 PaddyPower
