UEFA Champions League: Tottenham Hotspur V Werder Bremen – Wednesday, 24th November (19:45 GMT)

Champions League Tips

 

This match brings back terrible memories for us, when we tipped Tottenham to seriously come a cropper in Germany on their Champions League bow back on Match Day 1, yet Spurs left us and the Bremen faithful inside the Weserstadion flabbergasted with the start they made, bursting out of the blocks in a fashion which hasn’t been typical of  Spurs this season. In fact, Tottenham have generally been slow starters, falling behind on nine separate occasions in the Premier League, while nine of their goals in Europe have come in the second half. So, what with Bremen heading over to London firmly in the knowledge that THEY must be the quickest out of the blocks on Wednesday else risk early exit from Europe altogether, we reckon there’s a tonne of value in backing the visitors to land the first punch especially as Spurs are sat in a prominent position with regards to qualifying and have this frustrating habit of needing a stern reality check or a firm kick up the backside before they really race through the gears and eventually come good in style.

 

It really is now or never for Bremen, possibly even for their long-time serving manager Thomas Schaff, who has been with the club for over a decade but has arguably never endured a more torrid period of form than current. With injuries savaging squad numbers, Schaaf has struggled to even fill the bench let alone guide his team to Bundesliga points. Now without a win in over a month and on the back of some emphatic defeats; Losing 6-0 in Stuttgart and 4-0 away to Schalke at the weekend, Bremen are in serious trouble, domestically and in Europe. Wins have simply been so scarce of late, with the club now hovering precariously above the Bundesliga drop zone and showing no immediate signs that a recovery is around the corner.

Life hasn’t been much better in the Champions League; worse in fact. They’ll arrive at White Hart Lane five points adrift of their hosts, Spurs, but even more alarming three behind third-placed FC Twente. Defeat for the German side and theirs every chance of an unanticipated early exit from European competition entirely, which ironically is arguably the type of situation their opponents Tottenham would thrive in; backs against the wall and in desperate need of a result. Bremen have found their backs firmly against the wall for some time now and the response has been woeful. However, the fact they now have nothing to lose, as in theory they’re expected to lose in England and thus go out of Europe anyhow, makes them an extremely dangerous opposition especially as they’re likely to sprint out of the blocks and try to ruffle a few Spurs feather right from the off, with silencing the Tottenham crowd a must if they are to spring a shock and keep their European dreams alive.

It isn’t as though Thomas Schaaf doesn’t have the personnel to cause Spurs problems on the night, although his cause hasn’t been helped by a number of injuries which has left his bench half-empty. Even so, the likes of Mirko Marin and Hugo Almeida up front are lethal when in form, which they are not at current, while Aaron Hunt has been known to score pivotal goals in the Champions League, as has captain Torsten Frings; a spot-kick specialist. However, defensively they are so suspect and up against a Tottenham side which ripped Inter Milan to shreds in successive outings, scoring six goals altogether against a team which clinched last term’s European title because of their rock-solid defensive foundations, doesn’t bode at all well.

 

Before Tottenham kicked-off their maiden Champions League campaign, I doubt anyone will have envisaged that come Match Day 4 Spurs would be well odds-on to beat Werder Bremen at White Hart Lane, let alone be just one victory away from sealing their rightful place in the draw for the last-sixteen in December.  A culmination of unstoppable forward force and some serious potential has lead to Spurs being in such a commanding and promising position, one thoroughly deserved. However, in every single one of their four Group A encounter to date, Tottenham have been outstanding in just about every department bar one; defence. Neither Cudicini nor Gomes has kept a clean sheet in Europe this season, at least not in the competition proper, so combine their defensive flaws with Bremen’s desire to win Wednesday’s match and you could potentially have a catastrophic formula on your hands.

The irony is, we were praising Tottenham’s defensive qualities ahead of Saturday’s North London Derby with Arsenal, which they won 3-2. Silly little mistakes which had plagued them in seasons gone by weren’t as common, Gomes has reduced the amount of errors he was making while even their defensive misfits; William Gallas, Younes Kaboul and Beniot Assou-Ekotto have been outstanding in the wake of long-term injury absentee’s Michael Dawson and Ledley King. However, while they’re no longer gifting goals away, teams are instead out manoeuvring their back line with consummate ease. Gallas and Kaboul aren’t on the same wavelength at the best of times, while Assou-Ekotto and Alan Hutton’s eagerness to get forward means there are aches of space for the opponent’s marauding wingers to exploit.

But, though, manager Harry Redknapp is well aware of his side’s defensive frailties, as he was the one who installed them. His bold and abrasive tactics of playing ruthless, attacking football is the main reason why their defence suffers. Redknapp has promised never to change his forward-thinking style with Spurs so long as his side continue to overwhelm their opposition up the other end of the pitch. And why would he change? Spurs are sixth in the Premier League, six points behind leaders Chelsea but on course to finish in the Champions League spots for a second successive season, while they’re on the verge of qualifying for the knock-outs of the greatest club competition on the planet.

 

While we admire Harry’s courageous attitude and his side’s breathtaking football played in the final third, we should really be thanking the mercenary, as the former Pompey and Southampton tactician has proven a goldmine to punters. Backing goals in Spurs matches this season will have bared fruit more times than not, while backing Both Teams to Score will have brought more of a steady return. So, as the old adage goes, if it isn’t broke, why fix it?

In the Premier League, Tottenham have kept just one clean sheet all season long although their last came on the opening day way back in August. In Europe, they boast none. We’ve already come to the conclusion as to why they have this knack of conceding goals, and we’re very confident it will hold up on Wednesday. That is if Werder Bremen read all the headlines and realise Wednesday night’s encounter is undoubtedly their biggest fixture of the entire season thus far and that if they hold any fear and hold back in the slightest at White Hart Lane, they’ll be punished with aplomb. A lightening quick start is need to rock Spurs. It’s been done by so many teams of lesser calibre than themselves, so it is very much a doable act. However, one thing opponent’s have only managed sparingly is hanging onto to leads. Four of Tottenham’s six league wins this season have been from behind, while three of their four draws have required a comeback as well. Keeping Spurs down has proved a difficult act and with Bremen boasting a tonne more defensive frailties than the hosts, theirs every chance of this encounter being another goalscoring thriller.

 

Pointers

  • All four of Tottenham’s Group A matches have been corkers, with no fewer than four goals being scored in each: 12 in their favour, 8 against.
  • In the Premier League, Tottenham have conceded the opening goal on nine occasions.
  • Tottenham have amassed 12 goals in Group A thus far after just four matches, but 9 of those have come in the second half making them a vulnerable betting proposition with regards to HT markets, especially when you combine their tendency to concede the opening gal domestically.
  • Gareth Bale, Luka Modric, Rafael Van Der Vaart, Peter Crouch and Roman Pavlyuchenko have all been in scintillating form in the Champions League this season, while the return of Jermaine Defoe will add yet more options and dimensions to the Spurs attack.
  • Tottenham have kept just one clean sheet in all competitions this season (19 Matches).
  • Werder Bremen cannot afford to drop points in Wednesday’s fixture, and so must show an abundance of courage and forward initiative at White Hart Lane.
  • Bremen have been conceding goals for fun of late, shipping ten in just their last two Bundesliga away matches, five in two away Group A encounters.
  • Mirko Marin and Hugo Almeida are going to be Bremen’s most dangerous forward outlets, fittingly the same two which scored against Tottenham at the Weserstadion on Match Day 1.
  • Six of Bremen’s seven away matches in the German Bundesliga this season have produced 3 or More Goals, conceding a staggering 21.

 

Tottenham Hotspur Statistics

Champions League Results

Match Day 1: Werder Bremen 2-2 Tottenham Hotspur
Match Day 2: Tottenham Hotspur 4-1 FC Twente
Match Day 3: Inter Milan 4-3 Tottenham Hotspur
Match Day 4: Tottenham Hotspur 3-1 Inter Milan

Domestic Record (2010/2011)

W/D/L: 6-4-4 (Home: 3-3-1)
Goal Difference: 21-19 (11-7)
Over/Under: 7-7 (3-4)
Top Goalscorer: Van Der Vaart (Premier League) – 6 Goals, Gareth Bale (Champions League) – 4 Goals

 

Werder Bremen Statistics

Champions League Results

Match Day 1: Werder Bremen 2-2 Tottenham Hotspur
Match Day 2: Inter Milan 4-0 Werder Bremen
Match Day 3: FC Twente 1-1 Werder Bremen
Match Day 4: Werder Bremen 0-2 FC Twente

Domestic Record (2010/2011)

W/D/L: 4-3-6 (Away: 1-2-4)
Goal Difference: 19-31 (Away: 8-21)
Over/Under: 10-3 (Away: 6-1)
Top Goalscorer: Hugo Almeida – 4 Goals (Bundesliga) 1 Goal (Champions League)

 

Betting Odds & Tips


Matt’s Selections:

Over 3.5 Goals – 2.38 StanJames
Both Teams to Score – 1.67 SkyBet

Value Bets:

Werder Bremen to Score the First Goal – 3.50 totesport
Werder Bremen/Tottenham (HT/FT Betting) – 29.00 totesport
Hugo Almeida First Goalscorer – 11.00 VCbet

 

Match Odds:

Tottenham Hotspur – 1.50 PaddyPower (General)
Draw – 5.00 Unibet
Werder Bremen – 7.50 Unibet