Valencia V Bayer Leverkusen
Tuesday, 1 November 2011 – Kick-Off: 19:45 GMT
UEFA Champions League, Group E
Because of Bayer Leverkusen’s smash and grab victory in Germany on Match Day 3, Valencia find themselves in a must-win scenario heading back to Spain for the rematch. Los Che trail the Germans in second by four points and with Chelsea expected to secure all the spoils away in Genk, defeat at the Mestalla would result in early elimination from the competition for Valencia – while even a draw would leave them with it all to do to make the last-sixteen.
So the onus is well and truly on the hosts, though the omens do not bode well. Valencia have a very poor record against German opposition in Europe, winning 4 of 24 in total (W4 D10 L10) – 3 of 11 at home (W3 D7 L1), while they’ve never beaten a Bundesliga team in the UEFA Champions League. Moreover, last season Valencia were dumped out of the tournament in the Round of 16 by German opposition in the form of Schalke.
That said, Leverkusen have only triumphed on two occasions in Spain, and that’s from eleven attempts.
I was amazed to read of Valencia’s record at home to German sides, as they are so formidable at home, inside the Mestalla, where they held Barcelona to a 2-2 draw back in September. That isn’t all, though, as they go into Tuesday’s monumental clash having not lost in nine at home in all competitions, winning 3-1 there versus Getafe at the weekend.
Meanwhile, Leverkusen have been very inconsistent on their travels. They’ve suffered four defeats in eight away matches so far this season (W3 D1 L4), while they’ve failed to win any of their last nine on the road in this competition, a run which spans nine-years. However, the ‘Werkself’ didn’t make it easy for Chelsea on Match Day 1 at Stamford Bridge and I cannot help but think that they’re overpriced at 5/1!
As formidable as Valencia are on their own patch, I wouldn’t want to be backing them at odds-on. The match itself is not set-up in their favour, with Unai Emery’s side knowing full well they have to win this match; if not, they’re all but out. Emery has instructed his team not to think about the consequences, but that’s almost impossible and it will play on their mind throughout the match the longer the score remains deadlocked.
Leverkusen, meanwhile, can simply sit back, absorb some pressure and try to catch the hosts out on the counter – and it isn’t as though coach Robin Dutt doesn’t have the attacking armoury to seize on Valencia’s vulnerable predicament. Strikers Stefan Kiessling and Eren Drediyok aren’t the most technically gifted but they can certainly finish, but what the aforementioned lack in guile and craft wingers Andre Schurrle and Sidney Sam more than make up for.
It would be foolish to think that Robin Dutt and Bayer Leverkusen won’t go the Mestalla with a game plan, as they know full well that even a draw would suffice for them, as it would leave them needing only to win one of their remaining two matches, at home to Chelsea and away in Genk, to qualify from the group. Valencia, however, still have to go to Chelsea.
Two weeks ago, in Germany, Valencia dominated their first ever meeting. They enjoyed more of the ball and created by far the clearer openings. At 1-0 to the good, even they expected to see it out. But they didn’t, and as impressive as their all-round performance was, they’ve put themselves in an unsavoury position, and I have a sneaky suspicion they may pay the ultimate price when the two teams reconvene.
Leverkusen will try to defend resolutely but they’ll also be a real handful on the break. So at huge odds, I’ll gladly take a chance on the outsiders.
Recommended Bet: LAY Valencia to win at odds of 1.66 with Betfair
Value Bet: Bayer Leverkusen to WIN @ 5/1 Bet365
