Valencia V Real Madrid
Date & Kick-Off: Saturday, 23 April 2011 – 17:00 (GMT)
Competition: Spanish La Liga
A 1-1 draw with Barcelona in La Liga a week previous virtually destroyed Real Madrid’s aspirations of finishing the season as domestic winners, with Los Merengues trailing Barca by eight-points. However, they did at least make amends several days later by beating the Catalan giants 1-0 after extra-time in the Spanish Copa Del Rey final, ironically at Valencia’s Mestalla stadium, to ensure Jose Mourinho wouldn’t finish his first spell in charge at the Bernabeu empty-handed. But, with the league pretty much done with, and with further titanic clashes with Barcelona in the Champions League looming large, we can expect nothing less from the Portuguese maestro than plenty of squad rotation during the remainder of the Spanish season, starting with Saturday’s usually heavyweight billing with Valencia.
The bookmakers are clearly of the same opinion as us, as not since Madrid travelled to the Camp Nou earlier in the season, in a fixture they were subsequently spanked 5-0 in, have Mourinho’s men been such alluring odds. However, there’s a reason for that, and the simple fact that I’m not alone when I say I strongly believe Valencia to be exceptional value this weekend should also speak volumes.
Even though Valencia have seemingly ran away with third-placed and are assured of Champions League football next season, they don’t have any prior engagements between now and the end of the season, unlike Real Madrid, and so can afford to lavish La Liga with their full attention without a care in the world for fitness and injuries. And, at home, where they’ve tasted defeat on just three occasions this season and post a healthy record of W9 D4 L3, they really ought to come good on Saturday against what many are anticipating will be a much-changed Madrid outfit.
Not only does Mourinho have both eyes planted on next Wednesday’s Champions League semi-final first leg encounter with Barcelona at the Santiago Bernabeu, the Madrid tactician will be wary about fielding any who featured prominently in Wednesday’s Copa Del Rey triumph over Pep Guardiola’ side, in what was 120-minutes of endurance-sapping football in Valencia.
Furthermore, Real have often been suspect on their travels this season, so a second-string outfit tackling a full-strength and bang-in-form Valencia doesn’t bode well.
Unai Emery’s team are also chasing their fourth consecutive league win on Saturday, following hugely impressive wins over Getafe (2-4) and Almeria (0-3) away, as well as a spectacular 5-0 demolition of fourth-placed Villarreal in their most recent encounter at the Mestalla.
Valencia striker Roberto Soldado, who grew up in Madrid and rose through the Real ranks as a teenager, has been at the forefront of Valencia’s blistering recent form. The 25-year-old, who has scored 20 goals in all competitions for Los Che this season, has found his way onto the scoresheet in each of his team’s last three matches in La Liga, and accounts for seven of Valencia’s last twelve goals in that period. More poignantly, Soldado opened the scoring twice and looks the most likely to get the ball rolling for Valencia on Saturday.
Stat Attack:
Valencia have only won ONE of the previous FIVE La Liga meetings with Real Madrid, and just ONE of the last SIX at the Mestalla.
Los Che are aiming to secure their fourth straight league win on Saturday, after emphatic wins over Getafe (2-4), Villarreal (5-0) and, more recently, Almeria (0-3).
Real Madrid have only lost three of their 32 La Liga games this season, though two were away from home.
Just 26 of the 73 goals Madrid have scored in the league this term were netted while on their travels, while they’ve also shipped twice as many goals on the road; 15, as opposed to just 8 at the Bernabeu.
Betting Tip: Valencia to WIN @ 2.50 VictorChandler
Value Bet: Robert Solado First Goalscorer @ 7.00 Skybet – He’s 3.05, just over 2/1, to score any time at Unibet.
