West Ham V Fulham – Saturday, 1 September 2012; 12:45 kick-off
Prediction: West Ham 2-2 Fulham (Correct Score is 14/1 with Ladbrokes; Draw 23/10 with Bet365)
Recommended Bet: Both Teams to Score @ 8/11 with Bet365
We begin the third week of the season with a local derby as West Ham, trounced by Swansea last time out, host a Fulham side who provided last season’s runners-ups, Manchester United, with an almighty scare at Old Trafford last weekend. And it is perhaps their encouraging start to the new term which has persuaded firms to quote the Cottagers as marginal favourites (@ 15/8 with PaddyPower) for this all-London affair, with the Hammers only slightly shorter in price (@ 13/8 with 888Sport) despite boasting home advantage at what will be a raucous Upton Park come lunch-time Saturday.
Indeed, Fulham do appear slight favourites according to my interpretation of the odds. You would expect to find odds of 2/1+ on most travelling teams in the Premier League, particularly those not considered to be top-six material. We should also remember that this is Fulham, notoriously poor travellers, so to see quotes as short as 6/4 on an away triumph – those same odds are the best you will find on a home win – is perhaps indicative of where these two teams are at present, with one (Fulham) setting their sights on a top-half finish and a possible assault on the European places while the other will do well to remain in the division following promotion last season as runners-ups in the Championship.
However, West Ham did open their accounts with an opening day success at home – Kevin Nolan’s scruffy goal was enough to give his side the win over a very, very ordinary Aston Villa team who were convincingly beaten 3-1 at home by Everton the following weekend. That was almost as comprehensive a defeat as West Ham’s at Swansea, where Sam Allardyce’s charges went down 3-0 courtesy of some horrific errors at the back. Yet more inadequate defending will no doubt be punished by a Fulham side who obliterated Norwich on the opening day, notching five in a 5-0 whitewash, and whom were a little unfortunate to leave Old Trafford last Saturday without a point to show for their valiant efforts after a 3-2 loss.
It should, though, be noted that for the first 45 minutes of last week’s Old Trafford contest, Fulham were completely outplayed. They were 1-0 up within a matter of minutes through Damien Duff yet ended the half 3-1 behind. They were deservedly trailing. Martin Jol’s men rallied superbly after the break, with midfielder Moussa Dembele almost single handily conducting the Fulham offensive. He was sublime, as he has been throughout his time at Craven Cottage, earning rave reviews most post-matches. So to lose a player of his quality, someone with so much ability on the ball, has to be hugely detrimental to the team’s chances of success this season, especially with the end of the transfer window looming, with the West London club accepting an offer in the region of £15million for the Belgian international from capital rivals Tottenham.
I feel for Fulham fans, who are rightly devastated at the loss of Dembele. Their woes could be compounded further should last season’s top goalscorer depart as well, with Clint Dempsey reportedly on strike in a bid to push through a move to Liverpool. Recruiting like-for-like replacements won’t be easy, either. In the meantime they do have the personnel to remain competitive: Bryan Ruiz still has much to prove; Damien Duff still has much to give, while Croatian Mladen Petric is a predatory striker who already has a couple of goals under his belt.
The loss of Dembele is likely to tell at the end of the season for Fulham. Securing a top-half finish will be a massive ask without him, such is his talent. In the short-term however, and in this match specifically, I believe they have enough about them to cause a West Ham defence which was torn apart on so many occasions by Swansea in Wales numerous problems – though it is their own defence, one which went missing for the opening 45 minutes of last week’s contest with Man Utd, and which isn’t the strongest on paper, that worries me even against a Hammers side which hasn’t come across as the most threatening thus far.
I am not envisaging defences coming out on top here, in a fixture that in recent times has had a habit of producing a healthy tally of goals – each of the previous seven Premier League contests between the two at Upton Park have ended with both teams on the scoresheet, with five of those producing a minimum of three goals. Furthermore, the most recent two finished without a winner; the draw, then, does look appealing at 23/10 with Bet365.
