Wolfsburg have never won a European trophy but they have a great chance of making history this season. The Bundesliga club are favourites to win the Europa League having seem off Inter Milan in the previous round. They were always comfortable against the Italian club, eventually winning 5-2 on aggregate. Their reward for that success is another match against a club from Serie A, but they should expect a much tougher examination of their credentials as Napoli are nine point clear of Inter and have a squad which contain more quality, particularly going forward. The Germans are favourites for a reason, however, and they would be the side that every other team remaining in the competition would have preferred to avoided Wolfsburg, such has been their form throughout this season – both domestically and in Europe.
Of the 10 matches Napoli have played in this season’s Europa League, they have won seven a drawn two. Their only loss was away to Young Boys back in October but they qualified top of their group which resulted in them being drawn against Trabzonspor – whom they thrashed 5-0 over two legs – before getting the better of Dinamo Moscow, winning 3-1 on aggregate. The goal they conceded against the Russians was only the fourth they have allowed in the competition. A solid defensive record is what you would normally associate with a team managed by Roberto Martinez but they have conceded the joint most number of goals of any of the top 10 in Serie A so there is reason to believe that they are not as solid as their record in Europe suggests.
Wolfsburg will be playing in the Champions League next season no matter what, so the carrot of winning the Europa League to qualify for the more prestigious tournament is not their motivation. As well as attempting to win their first ever European trophy, winning a trophy of any sort will also be a huge motivation. Some of their key players are already being linked with summer moves away from the club and there’s no telling if they will reach the same level of performance again next season. They have set very high standards under Dieter Hecking and going all the way in this would be a perfect reward for their efforts.
Out of all the managers who remain involved at this stage of the Europa League, there’s nobody more qualified to be successful than Rafael Benitez. The Spaniard has previously won this competition (when it was known as the UEFA Cup) with Valencia back in 2004, before moving to Liverpool and masterminding one of the most dramatic and unexpected successes in the following year’s Champions League. He has not had much success since then but there is no doubting his capability. What will be a slight concern for the manager is their lack of form in domestic football. Sunday’s win over Fiorentina was their first in six games.
Whoever wins this tie will be a short-priced favourite to go all the way. Wolfsburg have really grown into the competition following a couple of underwhelming performances and results in the group stage. They have goals all over the park and can hurt teams from open play as well as being extremely effective at set-pieces. Napoli have been more consistent in Europe than Serie A but this will be their biggest test to date. Up until now they have faced some decent sides but Wolfsburg are very, very good. It is a tie I expect to go all the way and one which could well see a lot of goals with the plethora of attacking talent on show. The Germans have only lost once at home all season, indicating how dominant they have been. I expect the home team to have too much in Thursday’s first leg, taking a narrow advantage to Italy next week.
Napoli 5/6 @ Paddypower
