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December 2008

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SPREAD BETTING (part 1) .

Spread Betting is not for the faint-hearted. If you don’t understand it, DON’T bet in this media. If you do however want to try it out, bet in one of the Limited Loss Markets, until you’re happy with your progress. However CAUTION is the watchword.
 
Spread Betting started in 1974. A young unemployed stockbroker by the name of Stuart Wheeler had a brainwave that started people trading on gold prices.  A short while later it extended to Foreign Currencies and Commodities. That you might say was the thin end of the wedge.
 
We must thank one Jonathan Sparke for bringing Spread Betting to the Sporting World in the not too distant past.
Spread betting has been around for some time. Only at earlier times it was applied mainly to Financial Markets. The idea being that you would bet whether stocks and/or shares would rise or fall over a given period. If you fancied they’d fall you would Sell. If you thought they’d rise you would Buy. The more right you were, the more you would win. On the other side of the coin the more wrong you were, the lighter your wallet would be.
 
This form of betting was and still is, regulated  by the Financial Services Authority. Spread betting on sport also comes under their umbrella.This means that there is a fair amount of red-tape involved in opening an account with the companies that accept this type of wager. However having the F.S.A. is a free form of insurance.
The idea being that you must prove who you are and where you live. With suitable documents. This is to ensure that you’re not a terrorist about to launder your winnings for the benefit of God knows who?  You will probably be asked for an upfront payment. A DEPOSIT. I did warn about red-tape. So having proved that you’re a bona-fide sportsman with no evil intent what will you find? A cornucopia of bets to whet your appetite and empty your wallet, if you’re not careful. I have it on good authority that over 100 "markets" can be offered on One football match. How’s that for variety?  
 
With this type of betting you’re putting your money where your mouth is. So it’s important to know where you’re going and how you’re getting there.  In other words you must plan ahead and keep a weather eye on your finances, betting wise, at least. Don’t try to chase losses and don’t bet on impulse. Fancying a team or backing one because it’s "due" is definitely not for this type of betting. You’re never certain how much you’ll win or lose before the match ends. Returns can change on, the issuing of a card, a corner being given and of course a goal being scored. It can be a real White Knuckle Ride. So if you decide this is for you, Blackpool’s Rollercoaster will seem tame by comparison.    
 
 
In Spread Betting the bookie sets the odds or the SPREAD within a range which he hopes will be profitable to him, no matter how many punters are right.

The opening spread may be 46 to 52. In effect the bookmaker is saying the result will be within this range. You have to decide how wrong he is. If your opinion is that the spread won’t make up to 46 then you bet LOWER/SELL If you think he’s underestimated the spread the other way, then you back HIGHER /BUY.  You can only back within the range offered. In many cases the spread may be changed "in play" in a similar fashion to the Betting Exchanges. This gives you the opportunity to Close at a profit, or if it’s not going your way, to try to salvage something from your original bet.      

Let’s assume that you’ve chosen to Sell and you’ve bet at £1 per point.  The bet "make-up" at 38 . You win. £8. The difference between the bookies lower spread figure 46, and the final make-up figure. However had the final figure been, say, 55 you would have lost £15 .(You sold at 40 and the make-up was 55). In other words you either win or lose, the figure made up from the difference  between the outcome and the bet.  The "spread" between the Sell and Buy figures is the Bookies "edge".

The various markets are so many and varied that they deserve at least one article to themselves [to be continued ...]

Southampton V Manchester United Sunday 16:00

A few years ago this was a regular Premiership fixture for both sides but my how Southampton have fallen since. The two teams have met on no less then 71 times during the many years football has existed and Manchester United have always had the upper hand. United have won the previous four meetings between the two sides including a 4-0 win at Southampton in the FA Cup back in 2005. We wouldn’t put anyone off backing a similar scoreline this Sunday at St Mary’s.

Jan Poortvliet has one of the hardest jobs in football right now and that is attempting to get his struggling Saints out of the rut they are in and away from the foot of the Championship. They only just managed to scrape survival last season when they secured Championship status on the very last day of the 2007-2008 season. They are close to odds on to go down this season and it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if they were to do just that.
They have made a dreadful start to their Championship campaign and are already occupying one of the three relegation positions. The Saints also find themselves on a run of 8 matches without a win. Funnily enough their very last win in the league came against a very good Reading side. Since then they have managed just four goals in 8 matches and have shipped 12 in return. Hardly the sort of material you need to know if you’re a Southampton faithful.
The truth does tend to hurt though and it doesn’t get more painful then this for the saints. Their performances of late have been nothing short of abysmal and the home advantage on Sunday won’t mean anything when they sail out of the FA Cup at the first time of asking.

Sir Alex won’t mind too much who he draws in the FA Cup but he couldn’t of got much easier then an out of sorts Southampton side for their first FA Cup fixture. If they were not to win on Sunday it would be a major disappointment as Saints have showed very little of late to indicate that they could make a match of this.
Manchester United don’t exactly go into this game with a lot of momentum as their displays recently have been average to say the least. They have narrowly seen off Middlesborough at Old Trafford in their last ever fixture in 2008 winning 1-0 but they were hardly impressive. They have a knack of creating a lot of chances but have a big problem with converting them. They had a dozen or so clear cut chances against Middlesborough and missed all but one. J Park’s miss from 2 yards summed up their poor finishing.
Despite their poor performances they are still grinding out the right results and are currently third in the table and well in touch with those above providing they win their games in hand. Scoring away from home has been a concern this season with United scoring just nine on the road all season. That’s an average of 0.90 a game. Hardly Premiership winning material. They will be facing a far inferior side on Sunday though so they should enjoy themselves in front of goal. It could be a guessing game as to who will start up front with Carlos Tevez the more likely choice with Wayne Rooney probably settling for a place on the bench after he took a knock in the match with Middlesborough.

Match odds -
Southampton 10/1 Bet365
Draw 9/2 ToteSport
Manchester United 3/10 Coral

Prediction – Manchester United

Yorkshire’s promising leg-spinner Adil Rashid is the one surprise name in the England Test squad to tour the West Indies in February and March but there’s no place for county team-mate and former England captain Michael Vaughan. National selector Geoff Miller insists that Vaughan is still in England’s plans ahead of the forthcoming Ashes summer and that leaving the opening batsman at home will give him a chance to get a full pre-season with Yorkshire and to work on his fitness in a short tour of Abu Dhabi. But Vaughan’s international future now has a serious question mark hanging over it with age no longer on his side .

England are strong favourites to beat the Windies in the Caribbean (4-5 with William Hill currently being the biggest odds on offer) with confidence high despite a narrow defeat in their two-match series against India on the sub-continent.. Ryan Sidebottom, who missed the tour of India with a side strain, is welcomed back to the party and is a 6-1 chance (again with William Hill) to take most wickets in the four-test series with Rashid 10-1 with the same firm. Captain Kevin Pietersen is the 9-4 favourite (William Hill) to score most runs ahead of Andrew Strauss (a general 7-2).

The Tote have again reiterated their commitment to the Super7, which was only launched in September, despite persistent rumours that the bet is about to be scrapped. The Super7, which operates from Sunday to Friday, requires punters to find seven winners with dividends paid for ‘near misses’  of five and six correct selections. There is a guaranteed pool of £100,000 but reports suggest that the initial take-up has been disappointing and the Super7 appears very much the poor relation of the Scoop6 at present. With bets like the Tote Swinger also receiving more publicity – is the Super7’s sell-by date already up?

Hull City V Aston Villa Tuesday 20:00

Both Hull City and Aston Villa will be looking to put a disappointing weekend behind them and will see this as the perfect opportunity to make amends for their slip ups. Hull City were thumped by an inconsistent Manchester City side while Aston Villa could only manage a draw against Arsenal despite enjoying the vast majority of the possession and chances. This will be the first time these two have met in the Premiership so both will be eager to ensure they leave this rare tie the happier party.

Phil Brown took his team talk to the pitch on Friday when his side went in at half time 4-0 down against a Man City side that are hardly on fire right now. That on pitch slagging match did evidently do very little to alter the final outcome of the game as Hull eventually succumbed to an embarrassing 5-1 defeat in Manchester. Although, that isn’t their worst result this season. They were given a spanking at home by Wigan earlier on in the season losing 5-0 at the KC stadium. They went on to win their following fixture so Phil Brown obviously gave his team a stern after match team talk and it appeared to work. Whether he can work his charm this Tuesday is another matter. They were extremely poor against City and it is hard to envisage another abysmal performance  considering their season so far. They are still seen as the Premiership’s surprise package and are capable of causing a surprise. However, they have now gone two games without a win and those were both heavy defeats with the other being a 4-1 away defeat in Sunderland. They have conceded nine goals in just two games and that has to be a big mental blow for the Hull players. We expect Aston Villa to add to their festive woes on Tuesday.

Martin O’Neill wasn’t happy with the 2-2 draw with Arsenal and it was hardly surprising. They completely out played their rivals and the 2-2 scoreline failed to reflect the amount of quality chances Villa created. They only have themselves to blame and they will in fact consider themselves lucky to have claimed a point. They had to leave it late with a Zat Knight strike in the 89th minute sharing the spoils. Villa have been very impressive on the road in recent matches and have won their previous three away fixtures including a win at The Emirates over Arsenal. They don’t go away and sit on the back foot. They try and attack at every opportunity throwing vast numbers forward when they can. This shows in their results and amount of goals they have scored away from home. 16 so far and that tally should increase after this fixture. Villa should have no fresh injury worries with Gabriel Agbonlahor expected to be the main danger man up front with Ashley Young being the creator. There is goals for Villa here although, their finishing will need to be a lot more clinical if they are to go one better then their previous league result.

Match odds –
Hull City 16/5 Bet365  
Draw 13/5 Bet365  
Aston Villa 11/10 ToteSport

Prediction – Aston Villa

Sports-week 29 December - 4 January

Date	Sport	Org.	Venue	Event
28-30 Dec		FA	England	Premier League
3-4 Jan		RFEF	Spain	Primera Division
4-10 Jan		WTA	Brisbane (Aus)	Brisbane International
4-10 Jan		ATP	Brisbane (Aus)	Brisbane International

Kempton’s King George VI Chase is undoubtedly the jewel in the crown of Britain’s busy Christmas racing schedule but for national hunt enthusiasts the Coral Welsh National, scheduled for the day after the Boxing Day showpiece, runs it a very close second.

This year’s five-day entry has attracted three previous winners in L’Aventure, Halcon Genelardais and Miko De Beauchene who, of course, just got the better of Halcon Genelardais in a tremendous finish to the 3m6f contest 12 months ago. Alan King, responsible for the latter, also saddles ante-post favourite Nenuphar Collonges this year and appears particularly keen on the chances of Robert Thornton’s mount, "He is often off the bridle in his races but it seems the further he goes the better.", he told sportinglife.com, "This is obviously the furthest he’s been but we think he is crying out for a race like this." Nenuphar Collonges can be backed at 11-2 in several places while stablemate Halcon Genelardais is a general 9-1 being rated 8lbs higher that last year. Miko De Beauchene is a 10-1 chance with most high street bookmakers but Robert And Sue Alner’s stayer can be backed at 19-1 on Betfair. Mon Mome, third in 2006, is a general 6-1 and represents the in-form Venetia Williams team. He comes here off the back of a gutsy win at Cheltenham and his 4lbs penalty is largely offset by Aidan Coleman’s allowance so the eight-year-old, who is proven in the mud, is a must for the short-list but I think the value lies a little further down the weights.

Beat The Boys, as a second-season chaser endowed with plenty of stamina, looks to have the ideal credentials for this race and trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a record second to none when it comes to training the winner of the Welsh National. Beat The Boys, 16-1 with several firms including Bet365 and Skybet but available at 20-1 on Betfair, ran a cracking race behind Joe Lively and Halcon Genelardais at Cheltenham on his reappearance, despite being 6lbs ‘wrong’ in the weights. Sure to strip fitter for that and only 1lb out of the handicap proper this time, the grey gets the vote in what is sure to be another thrilling spectacle.

Aston Villa V Arsenal Friday 17:20 Setanta Sports

The live game on Setanta for the Festive period sees Arsenal seeking out revenge for their defeat in the previous meeting between the two sides at The Emirates. Aston Villa beat Arsenal 2-0 in London so that should add to the intensity of the fixture along with the fact that who ever wins will remain or jump back into the top four. Both sides only know how to play football one way and that is attack. It should be a lively encounter.

Martin O’Neill is doing a good job at Aston Villa and it’s clear that he is building a side for the future with some incredible English talent in the mixer. Their highlight this season has been undoubtedly the young winger Ashley Young. No doubt his valuation will have doubled since the start of the season along with Gabriel Agbonlahor upfront. Both are very Young and Villa must expect a lot of speculation during January with many clubs expected to be interested in the pair. Their league position is fair reflection of their season so far and are currently one of just two sides to have separated the big four in recent weeks and are more then likely the only side that could potential upset the big four pecking order. Villa are on a good run of three straight wins and are unbeaten in the league for six matches. Arsenal have it all to do if they are to upset Villa’s Christmas and be only the second side this season to go to Villa Park and win.

Arsene Wenger was furious with the referee’s decision to send Adebayor off against Liverpool. A decision which heavily influenced the game and one that will play a part in this fixture as Adebayor will now miss this tough away fixture. Bendtner will probably step in, in place of Adebayor but the absence of their Togo forward will be a massive blow. Arsenal were also dealt another blow by the news that Fabregas could be out for some weeks after doing ligament damage in that game with Liverpool. Not looking good ey? Add that to the fact that Arsenal haven’t travelled too well this season and you can only look at backing one side. Villa! Arsenal pulled something out of the hat when they came from behind to beat Chelsea a few weeks back at Stamford Bridge but they have lost to some very poor sides away from home so it is hard to tell what side will turn up to face Villa.

Match odds -
Aston Villa 81/50 Paddypower
Draw 12/5 Coral
Arsenal 2/1 Betdirect

Prediction – Draw

A Few Oddities.

How annoying can it get? Your team takes the lead and then throws it away. Maybe to lose or just to draw. Nevertheless it does happen quite often these days.
I find that it’s more likely to happen to an AWAY TEAM than a HOME TEAM.( However don’t let this put you off backing a home team). One team that springs to mind is Middlesborough. They seem to make a habit of it. So far this season, they’ve scored first in 10 games, but only won 5 of them. Man City are no better. Their record is identical.
In most major leagues, there is a small  number of who fit into this same category.

Obviously to take advantage of this happening you would need to be using a Betting Exchange (like Betfair) which has the game running "in play".

Once a goal is scored, the odds offered on both teams will change. Often dramatically. (I am amazed, at times, at the over re-action by punters when a goal is scored). Almost inevitably the team that has scored will now have odds below evens.
With the usual attention paid to recent and historical form, I feel sure that there is money to be made in this area.

The stats for teams who fail to score first can be used in a completely different manner. Let’s look at teams who have an indifferent record when it comes to taking a lead. With most teams, this will happen when they are playing away. Would you fancy a team in the bottom half of the league, away to a team in the top four, scoring first, when they only have a 25% record for scoring first. Surely a fine chance to punt on the, NEXT GOAL, being scored by the home team.
There are a few teams in each of the major European leagues who have records which cry out for you to back against them.
In Spain, OSASUNA have scored first in only 6% of their games. Italy’s Chievo, 18%. these are outstandingly bad records. However I would think any side with 30% or less, as first goal scorer, would  be a good bet, to concede first, especially when away from home.                               

Is it exclusive to the Premiership, or does the New Manager Syndrome work in any other leagues?              
‘Spurs brought in Harry Redknapp and almost instantly their fortunes took a big turn for the better. Sunderland parted company with Roy Keane and their two games since Ricky Sbragia took over, have yielded 8 goals and 6 points. Now we’ve seen Sam Allerdyce replace Paul Ince and immediately they reduce their negative goal difference by 3 goals. Not forgetting Newcastle United. Since they brought in Joe Kinnear, they’ve lost only 1 of their last 9 games.  "What is it that brings about such an upheaval in all known form?   Being a cynic of the highest order, I would think that any side being short of points should just get themselves a new manager. If only it was that easy tho’

Sports-week 22-30 December

Date	Sport	Org.	Venue	Event
26 Dec		FA	England	Premier League
28-30 Dec		FA	England	Premier League