Are Sky Bet taking a big risk with 11/2 quote about Stoke City this weekend?

Liverpool have won just four of their ten away matches in the Premier League this season, scoring an average of just 1.1 goals per game. However, after twenty games of the season played, it appears that the bookmakers still think that the Reds are in a false position this season. Why else can you explain why they’re priced at a prohibitive 4/6 with bet365 and Victor Chandler to win at the Britannia Stadium this Saturday (and to be fair to these bookmakers, that’s the best price that’s currently available)?

One can only assume that the bookies are prepared to give Stoke City such massive odds on account of the fact that they’re an unfashionable team to back. It’s true that the Potters don’t play the prettiest football in the division, nor that their aims are any higher than staying in the division, although their recent 3-2 win over Fulham illustrated that they are a tough nut to crack in front of their own supporters. If you factor in the abysmal weather conditions that are seemingly making matches more of a leveller than you would expect on a hot day, then it appears that Sky Bet’s 11/2 about Tony Pulis’ team is the wrong price.

Now we’re not suggesting that Stoke are definitely going to win and it’s Liverpool who clearly possess the most quality player-for-player. However, this is an example where it might pay to go against the grain. Just say you picked out three 11/2 ‘value picks’ this weekend and only one of them came in. That would still return a handsome profit, providing you backed the trio of teams at level stakes.

There are other markets where you can support the outsider if you think that the price is too big but you’re not confident enough to back them to win the match. Many bookmakers now offer a ‘Draw No Bet’ market, where there are no prizes for guessing that stakes are refunded if the match finishes all square (last season’s game between Stoke and Liverpool was a goalless draw). Sporting Bet offer 10/3 about Stoke on this market. Alternatively, there is also the option of adding the draw option to the outsider, something that can be done with a ‘Double Chance’ market. William Hill currently have 13/10 available that the outcome of the match is either a home win or a draw and I would personally make it no bigger than even money.

You may be of the opinion that Liverpool will win this match after some good recent performances in the Premier League. However, if you are prepared to take a long-term view with your betting and identify teams that are ultimately priced too big based on stats and form, then you should return a profit overall. You may think that Everton are too big at 19/10 (Boylesports) to beat Manchester City after an impressive unbeaten run which lately saw them draw 2-2 at Arsenal. However, it might be worth avoiding the 18/1 (Coral) that Burnley manage a surprise win at Old Trafford!

More information about Sky Bet.