Arsenal vs FC Porto Champions League Betting

Arsenal go into their big Champions League match without captain Cesc Fabregas, as Arsene Wenger is not ready to take any risks with the influential midfielder. Fabregas was pulled out of the 3-1 win against Burnley in the Premier League on the weekend, with a hamstring problem after scoring. This is a huge blow for Arsenal, as Fabregas is one of the best players in the Premier League at the moment, and a figure in the Arsenal line up. With the Gunners having to find a way back from a 2-1 deficit from the first leg in Porto, the captain’s presence could have a huge influence on betting strategies for the game. The young Spaniard has netted 17 times this season, and with Arsenal’s strike force looking a little depleted as it is, that spark of creativity and control which Fabregas exerts, will be missing.

Wenger has been struggling with injuries to key players all season, with star striker Robin Van Persie missing from action because of an injury picked up while on international duty. They have had to cope for most of the season without him, which many thought would be the downfall of the Gunners this season. With the recent horror show of Aaron Ramsey’s injury, Wenger has every right to feel hard done by, but they keep on going, much to his credit. Despite recent back to back losses in the Premier League against Manchester United and Chelsea, somehow Wenger has driven his men into contention for the league title. Abou Diaby had the ominous task of filling the space vacated by Fabregas against Burnley, and will likely step into the fold once again. With the captain missing, Arsenal will still look to play the same way as they always do, but the Portuguese side are not to be taken too lightly, as highlighted in the first leg.

Porto are probably the most underrated team in the Champions League. Sure, they are not in one of the strongest leagues in Europe, but they do have a decent history in the Champions League, and when they are on top of their game, they have a strike force which tear defences apart. Colombian Falcao and Brazilian Hulk are a threat, and there are some doubts as to whether Arsenal’s defence will be able to contain them. While the Gunners are going well and in contention for the Premier League, it is fair to argue that they are not as strong as they have been in past season, and with injuries to boot, they are relying on depth to get them through. This is what Porto are more than capable of exposing back at the Emirates Stadium.

The Portuguese played well and showed Arsenal that they are no pushover. Despite losing twice to Chelsea in the group stages, they gave good accounts of themselves against the Blues, which showed potential for more to come. Porto can carve out great chances for themselves, and they will be a threat on Tuesday night, as they will be able to strike on the counter attack because they know that Arsenal, buoyed on by the home crowd, will be coming at them. Collectively as a team, Porto have had the most shots on goal in the Champions League so far this season, and individually, Hulk is leading the shot chart of all players in the competition. This is what Arsenal will have to try and defend against.

Arsenal’s good form at home in the Champions League is something that Porto will have to overcome. The Gunners have one of the most impressive home records in the competition, and will start as favourites to win on the night. The key will be keeping a close eye on Hulk and Falcao, because if they sneak an away goal, then that could be too big a hurdle for the Gunners to overcome. Arsenal have scored eight goals in their last three domestic matches and will be fairly confident, as it’s hard to see Arsene Wenger expecting anything other than a comfortable victory. He flies hard in the face of adversity, and more often than not finds a way to come through. This, however, without Fabregas, could be their toughest test, but they will rely on their free flowing attacking game, which has seen them lead the Premier League in goals scored, and has already led them to two home victories over Porto in Champions League history.

BETTING STATS

Lat 5 Head to Head
Porto 2, Arsenal 1
Porto 2, Arsenal 0
Arsenal 4, Porto 0
Porto 0, Arsenal 0
Arsenal 2, Porto 0

Last 5 Match Goals
Arsenal: 10 For, 4 Against (All competitions)
Porto: 8 For, 3 Against (Champions League only)

Current Form
Arsenal: W5, D1, L3 (All competitions)
Porto: W5, D0, L2 (Champions League only)

Win Percentage:
Arsenal have an 85.7 win percentage at home
Porto have a 66.7 win percentage away from home

MATCH PRICES
Arsenal to win: 4/6 at Bet365
Draw: 14/5 at Boylesports
FC Porto to win: 5/1 at BetFred

Asian Handicap Betting Advice: Arsenal will still be favourites to win this tie, even with the injuries and disruptions they have had to their season, including the recent one with Fabregas. The playing field will be fairly even though, as Porto showed against Chelsea they can be a difficult side to compete against. The longer the game goes on without a goal, the more nervy they are going to be. They probably are not going to get walked over, so edging Porto with a positive should pay off.
FC Porto +1.25 Asian Handicap: 8/13 at Paddy Power