Australian Open Preview and Betting – Can Nadal retain his Grand Slam crown?

The Australian Open is the big sporting highlight of the new week, with all the top contenders looking to get the perfect start to the Grand Slam series. Rafael Nadal is the current title holder, and at this time last year he was starting what looked as if it was going to be a dominant year for the Spaniard. Things did not pan out that way for him however, and his warm up for the first Grand Slam of the new year, hasn’t gone perfectly. One wonders just how far he has to go until he completes a comeback from his injury, and gets back to his full potential. With the 64 first round games starting tomorrow, he we take a look at the main challengers for the title, and weigh up their chances of lifting the Australian Open title (match prices below in brackets). Remember that the seeded players here will likely be playing mostly qualifiers in the first round, hence the extreme odds.

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Roger Federer (1/33 William Hill) v Igor Andreev (16/1 SkyBet)
Federer can still be the man to lift the Australian Open, and he is keen to play down other talk. Federer became a father six months ago, and there has been talk that his new life style will affect his performances on the court. But Federer is ready for action on the big stage, and has been doing a lot of ground work in preparation for the Australian Open. This will be an important tournament for Federer after losing last year’s final to big rival Nadal. He has won the tournament three times before, but his last success came back in 2007. After winning the French Open and Wimbledon last year, and gaining back his World Number One spot, he should have the edge over Nadal one fancies, if the pair meet again.

Rafael Nadal (1/50 William Hill) v Peter Luczak (20/1 Totesport)
The defending title holder will only be able to meet his arch nemesis Federer in the final. They are in separate halves of the draw, being the top two seeds for the tournament. The Australian Open was his only Grand Slam triumph last year after winning two the year before. Last year was supposed to be his biggest year, but injury ravaged the second half of his season, and this has been the slow recuperation with which he has to deal with. He has all of the talent in the world to regain the Number One spot he worked so hard to achieve, it will just be a matter of whether or not he find his form, fitness and consistency quickly enough over the long tournament. The two biggest obstacles in the draw for him will be Radek Stepanek and Andy Murray.

Novak Djokovic (1/50 William Hill) v Daniel Gimeno-Traver (16/1 Blue Square)
The big Serbian will be a threat to all around him, and is growing in stature. Was fairly consistent throughout last season, reaching two quarter finals, one semi final and one third round exit out of his four Grand Slam appearances. He won the Australian Open in 2008 which was has so far been the pinnacle of his relatively short career. He is currently ranked three, so has been doing a lot right with his game and getting better all the time. He should have a fairly comfortable ride through the draw, as the next highest seed in his quarter is eighth seed Robin Soderling. He is in the same half of the draw as Federer though, and that looks like a very possible semi final match up.

Juan Martin Del Potro (1/25 William Hill) v Michael Russell (16/1 Victor Chandler)
The young Argentinean has been causing waves with the degree of his improvement over the last year. From making little impact at all in the Grand Slams in 2008, Del Potro claimed his first Grand Slam title by winning the 2009 US Open late last year. He was knocked out in the quarter finals of the Australian Open last year and also reached the semi finals of the French Open. The marked all round improvement in his game has been notable, and has climbed up into fourth seed spot in the world at the expense of Andy Murray. His warm up for the Australian Open has gone well, as he won the AAMI Classic on Wednesday with relative ease. That was his first competitive steps on court for 2010, and this could be a massive year for the rising star of the tennis world. Should make the quarter finals with no problems.

Andy Murray (1/33 William Hill) v Kevin Anderson (14/1 BetFred)
Starts 3am GMT on Monday, January 18th
Starting his campaign against a qualifier, should give him the opportunity to find his range. He is Britain’s great big hope of course, as the Scot looks to secure his first Grand Slam title. There is big hopes for him, certainly amongst fans back in the UK, and will need a big improvement over his fourth round exit last year. His Grand Slam appearances all fell a bit short last year, with the semi final exit at Wimbledon his best finishing position. For his Australian Open warm up this year, he decided to play in the Hopman Cup with team mate Laura Robson, a rising junior star. They made it to the final of that, but lost to the Spanish team (which wasn’t Nadal). He has been quite buoyant about his chances for this year, and is the failures which may be the things which can spur him on to better things. He will take a lot of betting on him, but will probably need to overcome Nadal in the semi’s if he is going to go all of the way.

Nikolay Davydenko (1/33 Paddy Power) v Dieter Kindlmann (16/1 Ladbrokes)
Russian Davydenko is the in form player at the moment. He beat both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in Doha, on his way to winning the Qatar Open. Like Murray he has yet to win a Grand Slam, and this certainly looks to be his year. He has gotten his all round game together for sure. Missed the Australian Open last year, and his subsequent best finish was a Quarter Final place at Roland Garros. He is much better than he was at this stage last year. He is Federer’s quarter of the draw, but as was shown last week, that’s probably something he’s not so worried about anymore. He had gone a long time without beating the Swiss Number One, but has beaten him on the last two outings, turning the tide.

Andy Roddick (1/20 William Hill) v Thiemo de Bakker (14/1 Stan James)
Roddick got his new year under way well, with victory in the Brisbane International, where he beat defending Champion Radek Stepanek. That was always likely to be the final, and Roddick has given renewed hope in men’s US Tennis. It has been a while since an American lifted a Grand Slam title. In fact it was Roddick who was the last to do so when he won the US Open back in 2003. That was his only Grand Slam victory and has only made it to the semi finals of Grand Slam twice since then. Performed fairly well at last year’s Australian Open, where one of those semi final appearances were, but whether he really has the game to challenge any of the top four, five or even six seeds remains to be seen. Unlikely to win it, but should at least get to the quarter finals with no worries. Will probably run into Del Potro and on paper and form, that will be the end of his tournament.

Robin Soderling (1/6 Coral) v Marcel Granollers (9/2 at Ladbrokes)
Not one of the bigger household names, but is always there or there abouts in tournaments. Which may explain why he’s not one of the household names because he has barely scratched the surface of the Grand Slams. The Swede showed good improvement in his game last year, and was the beaten finals at the French Open. That was by far the best appearance by him at a tournament. Again, like Roddick, could easily make the quarter finals, but whether he has that extra gear to beat a couple of really top guys in the latter stages of a Grand Slam is doubtful.

Men’s Australian Open Outright Winner Odds
Roger Federer – 3/1 at Sporting Bet
Rafael Nadal – 4/1 at Totesport
Andy Murray – 13/2 at Paddy Power
Novak Djokovic – 17/2 at Bwin
Juan Martin Del Potro – 9/1 at Bwin
Nikolay Davydenko – 12/1 at Expekt
Andy Roddick – 29/1 at Expekt
Robin Soderling – 54/1 at Bwin