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St Andrews
Saturday, December 26th
Kick Off: 12.45 pm

Premier League leaders Chelsea will be looking to avoid any Boxing Day hangover, as they need to get back to the form and the heights which they were hitting earlier in the year. This is an important time for Chelsea, made more so my uncharacteristic slip ups in recent weeks. The Blues only managed a 1-1 draw at second from bottom West Ham last weekend, draw 3-3 with Everton and their only highlight over the past few games, was a less than impressive looking 2-1 victory over Portsmouth. Chelsea have not managed to keep a clean sheet since thumping Arsenal 3-0 at the Emirates on January 29th, and boss Carlo Ancelotti will be scratching his head and wondering why?

Most of their problems have come trying to defend away from home, where they have suffered three defeats. But those problems have also been creeping into their game at home, and they are not looking as solid at the back as they were. They need keeper Petr Cech to sharpen up in confidence a bit and deal with long balls into the box. But, despite only getting recent results thanks to some Frank Lampard penalties. They have seriously failed to capitalise on more strange goings on in the Premier League, which has seen Manchester United lose two games in a row. Aston Villa first conquered the Red Devils at Old Trafford, which is unheard of, and then Fulham went and trounced Alex Ferguson’s patched up men, 3-0.

That will have been a wake-up call for Ferguson, as he has been trying to field a defence with barely any recognisable defenders in it. Until the January transfer window comes around, there’s not a lot he could have done, but there simply is not the quality at United in depth like there has been in times past. There are arguments that the Premier League is getting a tougher place, with the likes of Tottenham, Aston Villa and Manchester City all pushing the big four. With the defeats suffered by Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal this season, there might just be a case that the Premier League standards at the top are not as good as they have been.

Certainly Liverpool are lacking any world quality beyond Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres, and Arsene Wenger is unlikely to go all Real Madrid and pay money for a star striker, something they need. Manchester United have an uncreative midfield, which, under normal stances they could probably cope with if their defence was sound. But it’s not, neither is their goalkeeping. Which could all mean that Chelsea are at the top only because they are the ones who have lost the least amount of points. Carlo Ancelotti inherited a team bursting of world class internationals, and yet even they are showing frailties of a middle of the table team.

Chelsea, however, are expected to push on still, and compete for the league title, the FA Cup and of course, lead the English charge in the Champions League. They need to tighten up though, and get a little confidence back. They have the players to do so, and with their next three league games against Birmingham, Fulham and Hull, they will be expecting to take maximum points. With the African Cup of Nations on the horizon, Chelsea will be losing players. They need to get the most out of Didier Drogba while they can, starting on the away trip to Birmingham. That is why the festive period will be extremely important to them. They will need maximum points.

It won’t be that easy though, as Birmingham fans will probably not be believing their eyes at the moment, as Alex McLeish has taken them up to seventh in the league, one place above Liverpool. There has been an incredible amount of graft put in by the players, something the boss recognises. By no means are they setting the league alight, as they have only scored 8 home goals all season, something which should comfort Chelsea on Saturday. Birmingham have, however, won five out of their last six matches, something Chelsea fans wish they could boast about right now. One interesting stat from a betting point of view, is that all of those victories have been by one goal.

BETTING STATS:

Last Five Head to Head:
Birmingham 0, Chelsea 1
Chelsea  3, Birmingham 2
Birmingham 0, Chelsea 0
Chelsea 2, Birmingham 0
Chelsea 1, Birmingham 1

Last Ten Matches
Birmingham W6, D3, L1
Chelsea W6, D2, L2
Last Five Matches Goals
Birmingham – For 9, Against 4
Chelsea – For 10, Against 7

League Win Percentage
Birmingham have a 55.6% Win percentage at home
Chelsea have a 55.6% Win percentage away

Match Prices
Birmingham to win: 13/2 at Coral
Draw: 3/1 at Ladbrokes
Chelsea to win: 4/7 at Bet365

Betting Advice: Not really sure with Chelsea at the moment. They should beat teams like Birmingham without too much fuss, but they can’t be high on confidence, especially away from home. They have the quality to win matches with their star studded side though, but they are showing cracks. One attractive looking bet is Birmingham +1 Asian Handicap 4/5 at Victor Chandler.